2633 S Stevens Rd · Greenbush, MI 48738

$49,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 500 sqft · SingleFamily · 73 Days on market

2.28 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Newer 5 inch well-Newer septic-Nice driveway- underground electricity. 2 Acres/2 Parcels-2nd has road frontage on Scott Rd. Secluded opportunity on a wooded setting with plenty of privacy and room to roam. This property features a rustic home tucked back among the trees and offers strong potential for the right buyer looking for a project, getaway property, or investment opportunity. Surrounded by nature, the setting is peaceful and private with a large lot and scenic wooded views in every direction. Home is in need of significant repair and updating and is being sold as-is. Cash or renovation financing likely required. Great opportunity to bring your vision and restore this property to its full potential. 2 Parcels-the back parcel has road frontage on South Scott Rd.

Key facts

• Large lot
• Scenic wooded views
• Wooded setting

Tags

• WOODED SETTING
• PLENTY OF PRIVACY
• RUSTIC HOME
• LARGE LOT
• SCENIC WOODED VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $292 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($775 rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $47k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Oscoda Area Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #313 of 540 in MI (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Alcona County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alcona County population projected at -37% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $46,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.08%
• DSCR: 2.12
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $10,506
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.37×
• Total profit: $33,079
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48738

• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $775 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $454/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$163
• Net cashflow: $292

Break-even live

Break-even rent $405

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $320	-5% $306	+0% $292	+5% $278	+10% $264
Rent	-10% $231	-5% $261	+0% $292	+5% $323	+10% $353
Rate	-1.0pp $317	-0.5pp $305	base $292	+0.5pp $279	+1.0pp $266

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $49,900 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,900 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $49,900 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   price $49,900 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $59,900 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,900 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,900 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $59,900 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,900 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,900 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,900 Active 53 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,900 Active 52 DOM
18. 2026-04-09
    listed $59,900 Active 778-char remark

    Show marketing remark (778 chars)

    Newer 5 inch well-Newer septic-Nice driveway- underground electricity. 2 Acres/2 Parcels-2nd has road frontage on Scott Rd. Secluded opportunity on a wooded setting with plenty of privacy and room to roam. This property features a rustic home tucked back among the trees and offers strong potential for the right buyer looking for a project, getaway property, or investment opportunity. Surrounded by nature, the setting is peaceful and private with a large lot and scenic wooded views in every direction. Home is in need of significant repair and updating and is being sold as-is. Cash or renovation financing likely required. Great opportunity to bring your vision and restore this property to its full potential. 2 Parcels-the back parcel has road frontage on South Scott Rd.

19. 2026-04-08
    listed $59,900 Active 778-char remark

    Show marketing remark (778 chars)

    Newer 5 inch well-Newer septic-Nice driveway- underground electricity. 2 Acres/2 Parcels-2nd has road frontage on Scott Rd. Secluded opportunity on a wooded setting with plenty of privacy and room to roam. This property features a rustic home tucked back among the trees and offers strong potential for the right buyer looking for a project, getaway property, or investment opportunity. Surrounded by nature, the setting is peaceful and private with a large lot and scenic wooded views in every direction. Home is in need of significant repair and updating and is being sold as-is. Cash or renovation financing likely required. Great opportunity to bring your vision and restore this property to its full potential. 2 Parcels-the back parcel has road frontage on South Scott Rd.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $454 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $611 · $51/mo
• Expected delta: +$157/yr (+$13/mo · 34.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,300
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$454
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$744
• − Management: −$744
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $2,862
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$687
• After-tax cash flow: $2,817/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oscoda Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2626970
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,275
• Composite: 28.6/100
• National rank: #6714
• State rank: #313 of 540 in MI

Livability — Greenbush

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,097

Population outlook (Alcona County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,071 people
• By 2030: 8,331 · -8.2%
• By 2040: 6,852 · -24.5%
• By 2050: 5,691 · -37.3%
• By 2075: 4,229 · -53.4%
• By 2100: 3,149 · -65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Iranian 6% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Alcona

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.7) · D 28.6% · R 70.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.8pp toward R · 2008: -7.9pp · 2024: -41.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.7 2020: R+38.3 2016: R+40.0 2012: R+18.2 2008: R+7.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.71%
• Current HPI: 183.6873
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $59,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-08 Listed $59,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $454 · -10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.