12175 S B Hwy · Umber View Heights, MO 65785

$169,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 236 Days on market

Built 1989 0.98 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Perfect place, so close to Stockton City limits and Stockton Lake! 3 bedroom 2 bath country home close to town. The best of both worlds, out in the country and even has highway frontage just incase you have an idea for a business someday its a perfect place for that too. Especially, with this huge Garage on cement pad, and shop 4 cars will easily fit inside and electric 200 Amp. Nice shade trees all around and big apple tree, black berries etc. ..

Key facts

• Highway frontage
• Big apple tree
• Huge garage

Tags

• HIGHWAY FRONTAGE
• HUGE GARAGE
• SHOP 4 CARS
• SHADE TREES
• BIG APPLE TREE
• BLACK BERRIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-59 ($-713/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (6.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (29.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (29.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#95 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Stockton R-I (rural): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #77 of 324 in MO (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 106 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Cedar County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Cedar County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 236 days — a 12% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,541 (29.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 236 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.51%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $88,172
• Equity at exit: $152,249

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.55×
• Total profit: $262,451
• Equity at exit: $328,330

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65785

• Home prices YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 106
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,185 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $470/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $-59

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,261

Max offer price $158,510

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2025-10-01
   listed $169,000 Active 451-char remark

   Show marketing remark (451 chars)

   Perfect place, so close to Stockton City limits and Stockton Lake! 3 bedroom 2 bath country home close to town. The best of both worlds, out in the country and even has highway frontage just incase you have an idea for a business someday its a perfect place for that too. Especially, with this huge Garage on cement pad, and shop 4 cars will easily fit inside and electric 200 Amp. Nice shade trees all around and big apple tree, black berries etc. ..

2. 2024-08-08
   soldstatus
3. 2024-08-08
   soldstatus
4. 2024-07-30
   soldstatus Closed
5. 2024-07-06
   status Pending
6. 2024-05-30
   listed $141,900 Active
7. 2021-01-08
   soldstatus
8. 2016-01-22
   soldstatus
9. 2015-03-30
   listed $44,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $470 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,639 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,169/yr (+$97/mo · 248.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,225
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$470
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,138
• − Management: −$1,138
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$3,749
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$900
• After-tax cash flow: $187/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stockton R-I
• NCES district ID: 2929520
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $35,609
• Composite: 39.32/100
• National rank: #3989
• State rank: #77 of 324 in MO

Livability — Umber View Heights

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #95
• US rank: #6413

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,538

Population outlook (Cedar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,424 people
• By 2030: 13,080 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 12,434 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 11,841 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 10,171 · -24.2%
• By 2100: 7,744 · -42.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cedar

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.6) · D 14.8% · R 84.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.0pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -69.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.6 2020: R+65.9 2016: R+63.9 2012: R+47.0 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.72%
• Current HPI: 293.8984
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+276.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-01 Listed $169,000 WCAR
• 2024-08-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-08-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-07-30 Sold (MLS) — WCAR
• 2024-07-06 Pending — WCAR
• 2024-05-30 Listed $141,900 WCAR
• 2021-01-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-01-22 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2015-03-30 Listed $44,900 SOMO

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $470 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.