416 21st St · Wilson, KS 67590

$130,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,624 sqft · Other · 62 Days on market

Built 1985 1,624 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• Lake access
• Large shed
• 1,624 sq ft lot

Tags

• LAKE ACCESS
• LARGE SHED
• AMPLE SPACE FOR STORAGE
• FOOTINGS FOR CONCRETE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home; Entry level: 1
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.82 acres; Lot dimensions include W100' of 24 Lots, 2, 4 & 6 and 15' lot 8; Zoning: NC.1 / R-1

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher not listed
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air (cooling)
• Interior features: Window coverings; 8 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $69 ($833/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (5.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $122k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#140 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities D-.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Ellsworth County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $5k; list at $130k implies a 2500% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,200 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.29%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $20,099
• Equity at exit: $58,454

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $65,401
• Equity at exit: $90,084

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kansas: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 67590

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,225 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,950/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,137

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $159	-5% $114	+0% $69	+5% $24	+10% $-20
Rent	-10% $-27	-5% $21	+0% $69	+5% $118	+10% $166
Rate	-1.0pp $135	-0.5pp $102	base $69	+0.5pp $36	+1.0pp $1

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $130,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $130,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $130,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $130,000 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $130,000 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $130,000 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 43 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 42 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 41 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 40 DOM
18. 2026-04-15
    listed $130,000 Active
19. 1999-12-01
    soldstatus
20. 1998-08-01
    soldstatus $5,000
21. 1996-09-01
    soldstatus $14,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,701
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,950
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,176
• − Management: −$1,176
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$1,315
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$316
• After-tax cash flow: $1,148/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Wilson

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #140
• US rank: #6925

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wilson, KS

Population outlook (Ellsworth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,172 people
• By 2030: 6,115 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 6,002 · -2.8%
• By 2050: 6,064 · -1.7%
• By 2075: 6,342 · +2.8%
• By 2100: 6,304 · +2.1%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+828.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $130,000 Hays MLS
• 1999-12-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $5,000 Public Records
• 1996-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records