15200 Little Filly Ct · Jacksonville, FL 32234

$314,900

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,220 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 213 Days on market

Built 2008 0.25 ac lot Est $322k · at est. $11/mo HOA ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

COME AND SEE THIS BEAUTIFULLY MAINTAINED HOME IN WINCHESTER RIDGE. WOOD FLOORING RECENTLY INSTALLED IN THIS 5 BEDROOM, 2 BATHROOM HOME. GO OUT THROUGH THE SLIDING DOORS TO A NICE PAVER PATIO, WITH A FIRE PIT. PROPERTY IS BACKED UP TO A PRESERVE FOR PRIVACY IN YOUR BACKYARD, WHILE YOU ENJOY RELAXING IN YOUR HOT TUB.

Key facts

• Large windows
• Spacious kitchen
• Open living area

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• LARGE WINDOWS
• PAVER PATIO
• FIRE PIT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association with clubhouse, fitness center, and playground; Association fee $135 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Entry level: 1
• Exterior features: Community pool (not private); Quarter-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fan(s); Open floorplan
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-270 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (15.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (13.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $267k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mamie Agnes Jones Elementary School (math 57% / reading 47%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 430 students, 61% FRL); Joseph Stilwell Middle School (math 31% / reading 33%, grade F, #448 of 571 statewide, top 79%, 612 students, 68% FRL); Marine Science Education Center (31 students, 16% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 233 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 213 days — a 12% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $267,165 (15.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 213 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.68%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $321,900
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5733 Lagoon Cruise Way	0.02mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,500 (+13%)	5mo	$389,990	$156	65
5724 Lagoon Cruise Way	0.08mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,500 (+13%)	2mo	$384,990	$154	64
15336 Spotted Stallion Trl	0.27mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,262 (+2%)	16mo	$285,000	$126	62
15330 Bareback Dr	0.27mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,330 (+5%)	13mo	$299,000	$128	61
5709 Lagoon Cruise Way	0.30mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,500 (+13%)	2mo	$387,990	$155	54
6118 Black Filly Ln	0.41mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,330 (+5%)	15mo	$337,900	$145	53
15439 Buckskin Jumper Dr	0.66mi	5/3.0	2,507 (+13%)	22mo	$305,000	$122	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-19,504
• Equity at exit: $98,590

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $10,701
• Equity at exit: $124,379

Cash invested: $88,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32234

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,728 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,651
• Tax from tax record: −$632 /mo · $7,581/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$11
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$573
• Net cashflow: $-270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,070

Max offer price $267,165

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-92	-5% $-181	+0% $-270	+5% $-359	+10% $-448
Rent	-10% $-486	-5% $-378	+0% $-270	+5% $-162	+10% $-55
Rate	-1.0pp $-112	-0.5pp $-190	base $-270	+0.5pp $-352	+1.0pp $-435

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,725
• Closing costs: $9,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5724 Lagoon Cruise Way Jacksonville, FL	4.0	3.0	2494	$2,800	$1.12	6d	1	0.09mi
15180 Bareback Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1840	$1,999	$1.09	5d	1	0.14mi
6137 Black Stallion Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1862	$1,955	$1.05	0d	1	0.74mi
6092 Bucking Bronco Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1778	$1,995	$1.12	9d	1	1.00mi
15647 Woodbury Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1863	$2,670	$1.43	0d	27	1.22mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $11 · $132/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $314,900 Active 213 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $314,900 Active 210 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $314,900 Active 209 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $314,900 Active 208 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $314,900 Active 207 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $314,900 Active 201 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $314,900 Active 200 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $314,900 Active 199 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $314,900 Active 195 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $314,900 Active 194 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $314,900 Active 193 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $314,900 Active 192 DOM
13. 2026-04-01
    price $314,900
14. 2025-11-20
    listed $322,900 Active
15. 2021-09-30
    soldstatus $298,000
16. 2021-09-21
    soldstatus $298,000 Sold 316-char remark

    Show marketing remark (316 chars)

    COME AND SEE THIS BEAUTIFULLY MAINTAINED HOME IN WINCHESTER RIDGE. WOOD FLOORING RECENTLY INSTALLED IN THIS 5 BEDROOM, 2 BATHROOM HOME. GO OUT THROUGH THE SLIDING DOORS TO A NICE PAVER PATIO, WITH A FIRE PIT. PROPERTY IS BACKED UP TO A PRESERVE FOR PRIVACY IN YOUR BACKYARD, WHILE YOU ENJOY RELAXING IN YOUR HOT TUB.

17. 2021-08-15
    status Pending 316-char remark

    Show marketing remark (316 chars)

    COME AND SEE THIS BEAUTIFULLY MAINTAINED HOME IN WINCHESTER RIDGE. WOOD FLOORING RECENTLY INSTALLED IN THIS 5 BEDROOM, 2 BATHROOM HOME. GO OUT THROUGH THE SLIDING DOORS TO A NICE PAVER PATIO, WITH A FIRE PIT. PROPERTY IS BACKED UP TO A PRESERVE FOR PRIVACY IN YOUR BACKYARD, WHILE YOU ENJOY RELAXING IN YOUR HOT TUB.

18. 2021-08-05
    listed $319,000 Active 316-char remark

    Show marketing remark (316 chars)

    COME AND SEE THIS BEAUTIFULLY MAINTAINED HOME IN WINCHESTER RIDGE. WOOD FLOORING RECENTLY INSTALLED IN THIS 5 BEDROOM, 2 BATHROOM HOME. GO OUT THROUGH THE SLIDING DOORS TO A NICE PAVER PATIO, WITH A FIRE PIT. PROPERTY IS BACKED UP TO A PRESERVE FOR PRIVACY IN YOUR BACKYARD, WHILE YOU ENJOY RELAXING IN YOUR HOT TUB.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,581 · $632/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,581 · $632/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,736
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,639
• − Property taxes: −$7,581
• − Insurance: −$1,574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,619
• − Management: −$2,619
• − HOA: −$132
• − Depreciation: −$9,161
• Taxable loss: −$8,589
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,061
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,181/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 9,678
• Household income: $87,331
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 62.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.45%
• Current HPI: 288.4613
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-1.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $314,900 realMLS
• 2025-11-20 Listed $322,900 realMLS
• 2021-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $298,000 Public Records
• 2021-09-21 Sold (MLS) $298,000 realMLS
• 2021-08-15 Pending — realMLS
• 2021-08-05 Listed $319,000 realMLS

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,581 · +10.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.