27 Pine Way · Basye, VA 22842

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 940 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1971 0.54 ac lot $213/sqft · 20% below area Est $249k · 20% under $50/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cabin tucked away in the woods just 3 miles from Bryce Resort with a ton of potential. This property offers a great opportunity for investors, short-term rental buyers, or anyone looking to add value. Features include a private, wooded setting and a wraparound deck—perfect for enjoying the peaceful surroundings while still being close to skiing, golf, hiking, wineries, and other Shenandoah Valley attractions. Short-term rentals (Airbnb) are permitted—buyer to verify. Property is being sold as-is and priced accordingly. With a little TLC, this could make a great weekend getaway, investment property, or full-time home.

Key facts

• 0.54 acre lot
• Built 1971
• Listed 51 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2 ($-22/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (20.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.2% in Basye — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#319 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Shenandoah County Public School District (town): math 46% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #91 of 131 in VA (top 70%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 224 units permitted in Shenandoah County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Shenandoah County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,029 (20.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.04%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $249,237
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -19.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
47 Red Fox Run	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	978 (+4%)	21mo	$248,500	$254	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $108,699
• Equity at exit: $180,086

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.72×
• Total profit: $320,079
• Equity at exit: $388,362

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22842

• Home prices YoY: 13.7%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,580 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $824/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $-2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,583

Max offer price $199,582

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $111	-5% $55	+0% $-2	+5% $-58	+10% $-115
Rent	-10% $-127	-5% $-64	+0% $-2	+5% $61	+10% $123
Rate	-1.0pp $99	-0.5pp $49	base $-2	+0.5pp $-54	+1.0pp $-106

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,900 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,900 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-05-01
    listed $199,900 Active 636-char remark

    Show marketing remark (636 chars)

    Cabin tucked away in the woods just 3 miles from Bryce Resort with a ton of potential. This property offers a great opportunity for investors, short-term rental buyers, or anyone looking to add value. Features include a private, wooded setting and a wraparound deck—perfect for enjoying the peaceful surroundings while still being close to skiing, golf, hiking, wineries, and other Shenandoah Valley attractions. Short-term rentals (Airbnb) are permitted—buyer to verify. Property is being sold as-is and priced accordingly. With a little TLC, this could make a great weekend getaway, investment property, or full-time home.

17. 2026-05-01
    price $199,900 636-char remark

    Show marketing remark (636 chars)

    Cabin tucked away in the woods just 3 miles from Bryce Resort with a ton of potential. This property offers a great opportunity for investors, short-term rental buyers, or anyone looking to add value. Features include a private, wooded setting and a wraparound deck—perfect for enjoying the peaceful surroundings while still being close to skiing, golf, hiking, wineries, and other Shenandoah Valley attractions. Short-term rentals (Airbnb) are permitted—buyer to verify. Property is being sold as-is and priced accordingly. With a little TLC, this could make a great weekend getaway, investment property, or full-time home.

18. 2026-04-13
    historical $230,000 636-char remark

    Show marketing remark (636 chars)

    Cabin tucked away in the woods just 3 miles from Bryce Resort with a ton of potential. This property offers a great opportunity for investors, short-term rental buyers, or anyone looking to add value. Features include a private, wooded setting and a wraparound deck—perfect for enjoying the peaceful surroundings while still being close to skiing, golf, hiking, wineries, and other Shenandoah Valley attractions. Short-term rentals (Airbnb) are permitted—buyer to verify. Property is being sold as-is and priced accordingly. With a little TLC, this could make a great weekend getaway, investment property, or full-time home.

19. 2020-10-01
    soldstatus $135,000 Closed 777-char remark

    Show marketing remark (777 chars)

    Cabin in the Woods, Move In Ready!!! Come enjoy the wildlife from your wraparound deck which features plenty of room for your outdoor furniture, entertaining and cookouts! Inside you will find beautiful hardwood floors in the Dining Area, Kitchen into the Living Room, and both Bedrooms! Open Living Area with New Light Fixtures installed and freshly painted! Woodstove in Living Room for an extra heat source! Stairs leading to the basement were just refinished and the Basement has a Full Finished Bathroom, Laundry area and a large room currently used as storage but can be completely finished for another family room or bedroom! Basement is Walkout level! The deck was just painted and has beautiful new landscaping surrounding it! You will love what all this cabin offers!

20. 2020-10-01
    soldstatus $135,000

    Show marketing remark (777 chars)

    Cabin in the Woods, Move In Ready!!! Come enjoy the wildlife from your wraparound deck which features plenty of room for your outdoor furniture, entertaining and cookouts! Inside you will find beautiful hardwood floors in the Dining Area, Kitchen into the Living Room, and both Bedrooms! Open Living Area with New Light Fixtures installed and freshly painted! Woodstove in Living Room for an extra heat source! Stairs leading to the basement were just refinished and the Basement has a Full Finished Bathroom, Laundry area and a large room currently used as storage but can be completely finished for another family room or bedroom! Basement is Walkout level! The deck was just painted and has beautiful new landscaping surrounding it! You will love what all this cabin offers!

21. 2020-09-24
    status Pending 777-char remark

    Show marketing remark (777 chars)

    Cabin in the Woods, Move In Ready!!! Come enjoy the wildlife from your wraparound deck which features plenty of room for your outdoor furniture, entertaining and cookouts! Inside you will find beautiful hardwood floors in the Dining Area, Kitchen into the Living Room, and both Bedrooms! Open Living Area with New Light Fixtures installed and freshly painted! Woodstove in Living Room for an extra heat source! Stairs leading to the basement were just refinished and the Basement has a Full Finished Bathroom, Laundry area and a large room currently used as storage but can be completely finished for another family room or bedroom! Basement is Walkout level! The deck was just painted and has beautiful new landscaping surrounding it! You will love what all this cabin offers!

22. 2020-08-20
    historical Active Under Contract 777-char remark

    Show marketing remark (777 chars)

    Cabin in the Woods, Move In Ready!!! Come enjoy the wildlife from your wraparound deck which features plenty of room for your outdoor furniture, entertaining and cookouts! Inside you will find beautiful hardwood floors in the Dining Area, Kitchen into the Living Room, and both Bedrooms! Open Living Area with New Light Fixtures installed and freshly painted! Woodstove in Living Room for an extra heat source! Stairs leading to the basement were just refinished and the Basement has a Full Finished Bathroom, Laundry area and a large room currently used as storage but can be completely finished for another family room or bedroom! Basement is Walkout level! The deck was just painted and has beautiful new landscaping surrounding it! You will love what all this cabin offers!

23. 2020-08-07
    listed $130,000 Active 777-char remark

    Show marketing remark (777 chars)

    Cabin in the Woods, Move In Ready!!! Come enjoy the wildlife from your wraparound deck which features plenty of room for your outdoor furniture, entertaining and cookouts! Inside you will find beautiful hardwood floors in the Dining Area, Kitchen into the Living Room, and both Bedrooms! Open Living Area with New Light Fixtures installed and freshly painted! Woodstove in Living Room for an extra heat source! Stairs leading to the basement were just refinished and the Basement has a Full Finished Bathroom, Laundry area and a large room currently used as storage but can be completely finished for another family room or bedroom! Basement is Walkout level! The deck was just painted and has beautiful new landscaping surrounding it! You will love what all this cabin offers!

24. 2018-05-11
    soldstatus $92,500 Sold
25. 2018-05-11
    soldstatus $92,500 Closed
26. 2018-05-11
    soldstatus $92,500
27. 2018-05-11
    soldstatus $92,500
28. 2018-03-15
    historical Active Under Contract
29. 2018-03-15
    status Contingent (No Kick Out)
30. 2018-01-08
    listed $95,500 Active
31. 2018-01-08
    listed $95,500 Active
32. 2018-01-08
    listed $95,500
33. 2016-11-22
    historical Withdrawn
34. 2016-11-22
    historical
35. 2015-09-30
    price
36. 2015-05-06
    price
37. 2014-02-04
    listed Active
38. 2014-02-04
    listed $110,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $824 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,639 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$816/yr (+$68/mo · 99.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,963
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$824
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,517
• − Management: −$1,517
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$3,507
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$842
• After-tax cash flow: $820/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shenandoah County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103510
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,207
• Composite: 44.42/100
• National rank: #2811
• State rank: #91 of 131 in VA

Livability — Basye

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #319
• US rank: #11652

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,763

Population outlook (Shenandoah County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,891 people
• By 2030: 45,630 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 46,708 · +4.0%
• By 2050: 47,072 · +4.9%
• By 2075: 47,418 · +5.6%
• By 2100: 43,707 · -2.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shenandoah

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.2) · D 28.4% · R 70.6% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.8pp toward R · 2008: -26.5pp · 2024: -42.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.2 2020: R+40.6 2016: R+43.3 2012: R+31.4 2008: R+26.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 42.64%
• Current HPI: 353.3603
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+81.7% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $199,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $199,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-13 Coming Soon $230,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2020-10-01 Sold (MLS) $135,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-09-24 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-08-20 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-08-07 Listed $130,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $92,500 Public Records
• 2018-05-11 Sold (MLS) $92,500 HRAR
• 2018-05-11 Sold (MLS) $92,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-05-11 Sold (MLS) $92,500 MRIS
• 2018-03-15 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-03-15 Pending — MRIS
• 2018-01-08 Listed $95,500 HRAR
• 2018-01-08 Listed $95,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-01-08 Listed $95,500 MRIS
• 2016-11-22 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-11-22 Delisted — MRIS
• 2015-09-30 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2015-05-06 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2014-02-04 Listed — MRIS
• 2014-02-04 Listed $110,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $824 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.