Bailey Plan · Katy, TX 77493

$331,990

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,943 sqft · SingleFamily · 156 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Bailey offers an impressive and spacious single-story design that brings comfort, flexibility, and effortless living together in one thoughtfully crafted layout. With five full bedrooms, this plan is perfect for households needing extra space for family, guests, work-from-home setups, or hobbies. At the center of the home, the open-concept kitchen overlooks the dining area and large family room, creating a bright and inviting space for both daily routines and entertaining. A walk-in pantry provides ample storage, while the connected layout keeps everyone engaged and part of the conversation. Privately positioned at the back of the home, the primary bedroom features a well-sized walk-in closet and an en-suite bath. Four secondary bedrooms are spread throughout the floor plan, giving each space privacy and versatility. A second full bath is conveniently located near the main living areas and secondary bedrooms. With a welcoming foyer, dedicated utility room, and a two-car garage offering plenty of storage, the Bailey delivers a beautifully balanced home that adapts to your lifestyle-both now and in the years ahead.

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• Walk-in closet
• En-suite bath

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• PRIMARY BEDROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• EN-SUITE BATH
• DEDICATED UTILITY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $331,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $347,800.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $332k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $78 ($940/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $314k (5.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $292k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.0% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2696 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($118k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($292k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $292,151 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.96%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $347,800
• List price: $331,990
• Delta: -4.55%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5102 Sedona Creek Dr	0.07mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,759 (-10%)	6mo	$324,945	$185	67
4680 Peony Green Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,056 (+6%)	0mo	$343,990	$167	55
5631 Pearl Vista Dr	0.64mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,025 (+4%)	3mo	$339,504	$168	54
5811 Havana Mist Dr	0.73mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,083 (+7%)	4mo	$394,990	$190	44
5065 Marcasca Dr	0.72mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,102 (+8%)	0mo	$331,990	$158	44
5806 Havana Mist Dr	0.72mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,134 (+10%)	0mo	$305,000	$143	43
27203 Blue Pool Dr	0.72mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,816 (-6%)	5mo	$314,999	$173	43
2208 Inglenook Grove Dr	0.56mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,196 (+13%)	3mo	$359,990	$164	41
2220 Inglenook Grove Dr	0.57mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,187 (+13%)	6mo	$409,990	$187	39
27411 Cinnamon Shores Dr	0.66mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,206 (+14%)	1mo	$349,990	$159	38
4684 Peony Green Dr	0.65mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,190 (+13%)	2mo	$359,990	$164	38
27043 Blue Pool Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,655 (-15%)	6mo	$361,990	$219	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-60,530
• Equity at exit: $51,858

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-81,675
• Equity at exit: $30,071

Cash invested: $97,384 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2696
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,142 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,824
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$435 /mo · $5,217/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$660
• Net cashflow: $78

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,042

Max offer price $347,800

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,950
• Closing costs: $10,434
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27064 Beach Ball Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1705	$2,957	$1.73	1d	25	0.32mi
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Katy, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1890	$3,949	$2.09	1d	16	0.51mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	20d	1	0.63mi
27327 Blue Pool Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,600	$1.24	43d	1	0.75mi
5819 Bright Keel Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2598	$2,400	$0.92	43d	1	0.81mi
27507 Hudson Sands Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2294	$3,000	$1.31	17d	1	1.06mi
3056 Sea Turtle Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,200	$1.47	43d	1	1.17mi
3013 Pearl Coastline Ln Katy, TX	6.0	2.5	2480	$3,995	$1.61	24d	1	1.17mi
3041 Colusa Ridge Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2263	$2,500	$1.10	12d	1	1.24mi
3136 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	12d	1	1.24mi
3020 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	2408	$3,995	$1.66	24d	1	1.24mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$3,850	$1.79	43d	1	1.24mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$2,762	$1.28	10d	1	1.24mi
3076 Dylan Skyland Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2240	$3,395	$1.52	24d	1	1.24mi
3124 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,330	$1.31	24d	1	1.25mi
3112 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,330	$1.31	24d	1	1.27mi
3025 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	6.0	2.5	2480	$3,798	$1.53	4d	1	1.28mi
3020 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	12d	1	1.31mi
6414 Orchid Beach Dr Katy, TX	5.0	4.0	2490	$3,000	$1.20	12d	1	1.34mi
3060 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	6.0	2.5	2408	$3,995	$1.66	24d	1	1.34mi
3048 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,275	$1.36	24d	1	1.35mi
3057 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1644	$2,252	$1.37	24d	1	1.36mi
6427 Seafoam Lake Dr Katy, TX	4.0	4.0	2479	$3,000	$1.21	1d	1	1.42mi
3104 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	1947	$3,695	$1.90	4d	1	1.42mi
3084 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,325	$1.12	12d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $331,990 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $331,990 Active 155 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $331,990 Active 154 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $331,990 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $331,990 Active 147 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $331,990 Active 146 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $331,990 Active 145 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $331,990 Active 142 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $331,990 Active 141 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $331,990 Active 140 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $331,990 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $331,990 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-01-13
    listed $331,990 Active 1134-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1134 chars)

    The Bailey offers an impressive and spacious single-story design that brings comfort, flexibility, and effortless living together in one thoughtfully crafted layout. With five full bedrooms, this plan is perfect for households needing extra space for family, guests, work-from-home setups, or hobbies. At the center of the home, the open-concept kitchen overlooks the dining area and large family room, creating a bright and inviting space for both daily routines and entertaining. A walk-in pantry provides ample storage, while the connected layout keeps everyone engaged and part of the conversation. Privately positioned at the back of the home, the primary bedroom features a well-sized walk-in closet and an en-suite bath. Four secondary bedrooms are spread throughout the floor plan, giving each space privacy and versatility. A second full bath is conveniently located near the main living areas and secondary bedrooms. With a welcoming foyer, dedicated utility room, and a two-car garage offering plenty of storage, the Bailey delivers a beautifully balanced home that adapts to your lifestyle-both now and in the years ahead.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,699
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,482
• − Property taxes: −$5,217
• − Insurance: −$1,739
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,016
• − Management: −$3,016
• − Depreciation: −$10,118
• Taxable loss: −$4,889
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,173
• After-tax cash flow: $2,113/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in good condition with a spacious layout and modern finishes. It has the potential to be a move-in-ready property with some minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and functionality.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the interior walls and adding some decorative elements to the kitchen and bathrooms. — Fresh paint and decor can enhance the home's appeal and make it more inviting.
• Both Landscaping improvements to enhance curb appeal. — A well-maintained yard can attract more potential buyers or renters.
• Both Adding smart home features to the HVAC and lighting systems. — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers or renters.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances to more modern models. — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers or renters.
• Both Adding a small outdoor patio or seating area. — An outdoor space can increase the home's appeal and functionality, especially for families or those who enjoy outdoor activities.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the interior walls and adding some decorative elements to the kitchen and bathrooms. — Fresh paint and decor can enhance the home's appeal and make it more inviting. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements to enhance curb appeal. — A well-maintained yard can attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features to the HVAC and lighting systems. — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances to more modern models. — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Adding a small outdoor patio or seating area. — An outdoor space can increase the home's appeal and functionality, especially for families or those who enjoy outdoor activities. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-13 Listed $331,990 Zillow