14809 Chisholm Trl · Choctaw, OK 73020

$238,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,460 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1996 Est $226k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +5.2/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ready for new owners! Open floor plan! Nice cozy fireplace in living room! Kitchen has a breakfast bar & refinished counter tops (January 2019)! Laundry room with folding area and storage! Master bedroom offers double closets, double vanities, and tub/shower! New carpet and dishwasher in January 2019! Central Heat & Air and Hot water tank replaced in 2016! Roof replaced in 2015! So it's move in ready! 10x10 shed in backyard for storage!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Laundry room
• Double closets

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• COZY FIREPLACE
• BREAKFAST BAR
• REFINISHED COUNTER TOPS
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• DOUBLE CLOSETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $238k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5 ($59/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.1% in Choctaw — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#31 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Choctaw-Nicoma Park (suburban): math 28% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #48 of 270 in OK (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 326 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 5,365 units permitted in Oklahoma County in 2024 (569 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oklahoma County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($234k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $139k; list at $238k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,367 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.09%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $226,300
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1917 Overland Trl	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,432 (-2%)	7mo	$183,000	$128	88
14709 Chisholm Trl	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,480 (+1%)	7mo	$228,000	$154	87
1701 Butterfield Trl	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-0%)	1mo	$220,000	$151	85
1704 Butterfield Trl	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,436 (-2%)	3mo	$190,000	$132	82
1909 Cimarron Trl	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,338 (-8%)	1mo	$229,900	$172	80
1725 Overland Trl	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,549 (+6%)	3mo	$242,000	$156	78
1917 Cimarron Trl	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,289 (-12%)	0mo	$207,000	$161	76
2580 Main St	0.38mi	3/1.5	1,400 (-4%)	7mo	$192,000	$137	68
14916 Choctaw Trl	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,319 (-10%)	2mo	$215,000	$163	67
1700 Butterfield Trl	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-10%)	6mo	$205,000	$155	66
2600 Maupin St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,607 (+10%)	6mo	$195,000	$121	60
2951 Maupin St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,606 (+10%)	2mo	$305,000	$190	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-38,309
• Equity at exit: $35,487

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-33,183
• Equity at exit: $20,578

Cash invested: $66,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73020

• Active inventory: 326
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,914 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,248
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,915/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,907

Max offer price $238,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,500
• Closing costs: $7,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14505 Park Cir Choctaw, OK	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,785	$1.22	16d	1	0.63mi
3658 Harper Rd Choctaw, OK	3.0	2.0	1117	$1,450	$1.30	2d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $238,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $238,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $238,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $238,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $238,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $238,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $238,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $238,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $238,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $238,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,915 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,142 · $178/mo
• Expected delta: +$227/yr (+$19/mo · 11.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,964
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,332
• − Property taxes: −$1,915
• − Insurance: −$1,190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,837
• − Management: −$1,837
• − Depreciation: −$6,924
• Taxable loss: −$4,071
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$977
• After-tax cash flow: $1,036/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Choctaw-Nicoma Park
• NCES district ID: 4007620
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $69,072
• Composite: 28.02/100
• National rank: #6847
• State rank: #48 of 270 in OK

Livability — Choctaw

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #6853

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Choctaw, OK
• County: Oklahoma County · 771,644 people
• City population: 25,645
• Metro: Oklahoma City, OK
• Population (ZIP): 25,645
• Household income: $104,601
• Rent vs Own: 11.3% rent · 88.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 258.0

Population outlook (Oklahoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 911,875 people
• By 2030: 982,413 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 1,130,468 · +24.0%
• By 2050: 1,288,422 · +41.3%
• By 2075: 1,711,482 · +87.7%
• By 2100: 2,088,448 · +129.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 5% Native American 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Oklahoma

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +15.1pp toward D · 2008: -16.8pp · 2024: -1.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.7 2020: R+1.1 2016: R+10.5 2012: R+16.7 2008: R+16.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.61%
• Current HPI: 240.9989
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Oklahoma City, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+199.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $238,000 FSBO.com
• 2019-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $139,000 Public Records
• 2019-02-15 Sold (MLS) $139,000 MLSOK
• 2019-02-04 Pending — MLSOK
• 2019-01-30 Listed $145,000 MLSOK
• 2003-09-17 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2003-09-10 Sold (MLS) $100,000 MLSOK
• 2003-07-31 Listed $103,000 MLSOK
• 1999-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $85,500 Public Records
• 1999-05-27 Listed $87,500 MLSOK
• 1996-09-05 Sold (Public Records) $79,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,915 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.