2900 Alexson Rd · Grayland, WA 98547

$125,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 436 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1940 3,049 sqft lot $287/sqft · 20% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Rustic cabin in Grayland offering great charm and history. Once used as a place to rest after long hours of working the cranberry fields nearby. This 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom cabin has original wood floors, bead board through out, and wonderful wood cabinets in the kitchen. The past 7 years the cabin has had improvements made to the porches, new roof, updated wiring, and a functional bathroom with shower. There is an additional finished bunkhouse that has a separate entry from the home. Private back yard area. Great little get away close to the beaches for clamming. This is a great opportunity to own a piece of the cranberry coast history. Offers septic and electric. Needs well. Current owners

Key facts

• Finished bunkhouse
• Updated wiring
• Original wood floors

Tags

• ORIGINAL WOOD FLOORS
• BEAD BOARD
• NEW ROOF
• UPDATED WIRING
• FUNCTIONAL BATHROOM
• FINISHED BUNKHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $164 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (3.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $118k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#538 in WA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime D-.
• Ocosta School District (rural): math 39% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #196 of 291 in WA (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 90 units permitted in Pacific County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pacific County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $117,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.61%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $250,342
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -50.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-9,859
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $4,724
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98547

• Home prices YoY: -17.3%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,205 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $972/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $164

Break-even live

Break-even rent $998

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-04-07
    listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $972 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,225 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$253/yr (+$21/mo · 26.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥75°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,465
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$972
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,157
• − Management: −$1,157
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$85
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$20
• After-tax cash flow: $1,984/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ocosta School District
• NCES district ID: 5306090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,877
• Composite: 39.19/100
• National rank: #8222
• State rank: #196 of 291 in WA

Livability — Grayland

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #538
• US rank: #22695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime D- Employment F Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,206

Population outlook (Pacific County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,636 people
• By 2030: 20,137 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 19,041 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 18,504 · -10.3%
• By 2075: 17,403 · -15.7%
• By 2100: 16,241 · -21.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 9% Iranian 5% Romanian 5%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pacific

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 49.4% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.4pp toward R · 2008: 14.1pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: R+1.1 2016: R+6.9 2012: D+11.4 2008: D+14.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.99%
• Current HPI: 234.6274
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Listed $125,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $972 · +16.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.