485 Hickory St · Buffalo, NY 14204

$269,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,320 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1984 4,687 sqft lot Est $218k · 24% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Appreciation +3.3/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

All newer carpeting, newer vinyl plank flooring, freshly painted, newer furnace (Feb 2023), new Hot Water tank on May 20! Comfortable lay out with good sized rooms!! Large living room, Fireplace (NRTC), Formal Dining Room, 3 bedrooms, 1.5 baths. There is an attached garage, an apparently very dry basement, and a yard to enjoy in warmer weather! Easy commute to anywhere, with bus service available on Genesee or Sycamore! Make it yours!! Sellers will begin entertaining offers after 5 pm Thurs May 25.

Key facts

• New flooring
• Whole brick house
• Poured foundation

Tags

• WHOLE BRICK HOUSE
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW WINDOWS
• LIVING ROOM DINING AREA
• EXCELLENT KITCHEN
• POURED FOUNDATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $173 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (17.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 33 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,231/mo this rent would consume 95% of the median local household income ($28k/yr) (locally 945% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($266k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $223,087 (17.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.75%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $217,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
635 Jefferson Ave	0.38mi	3/1.5	1,330 (+1%)	1mo	$220,000	$165	80
228 Sycamore St	0.07mi	3/1.5	1,442 (+9%)	9mo	$260,900	$181	73
234 Walnut St	0.26mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,380 (+4%)	5mo	$240,000	$174	71
228 Pine St	0.43mi	3/1.5	1,360 (+3%)	11mo	$272,500	$200	66
782 Main St	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,309 (-1%)	6mo	$350,000	$267	65
553 William St	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,279 (-3%)	5mo	$231,750	$181	58
198 Mulberry St	0.49mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,222 (-7%)	6mo	$79,500	$65	53
200 Locust St	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,217 (-8%)	12mo	$95,000	$78	51
162 Rose St	0.70mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,336 (+1%)	11mo	$201,000	$150	51
323 Jefferson Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,220 (-8%)	5mo	$195,000	$160	50
232 Mulberry St	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,343 (+2%)	19mo	$200,000	$149	48
95 Peckham St	0.61mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,249 (-5%)	18mo	$150,000	$120	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-27,126
• Equity at exit: $40,243

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $14,673
• Equity at exit: $23,336

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14204

• Home prices YoY: -1.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,231 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $734/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $173

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,011

Max offer price $269,900

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
489 Ellicott St Unit 36 Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	2d	1	0.44mi
628 Ellicott St Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1059	$2,812	$2.65	2d	5	0.51mi
983 Michigan Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	804	$3,202	$3.98	1d	58	0.52mi
17 N Pearl St Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1077	$2,700	$2.51	23d	1	0.64mi
17 N Pearl St Unit 3 Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	1197	$3,100	$2.59	23d	1	0.64mi
465 Washington St Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1388	$2,285	$1.65	1d	5	0.68mi
44 N Pearl St #5 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,400	$2.00	43d	1	0.69mi
506 Delaware Ave Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1190	$2,995	$2.52	10d	6	0.81mi
40 North St Unit 306 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.5	1125	$1,950	$1.73	43d	1	0.84mi
19 North St Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	1306	$2,910	$2.23	10d	7	0.86mi
149 Swan St #404 Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1237	$2,100	$1.70	23d	1	0.91mi
149 Swan St #404 Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1237	$2,050	$1.66	11d	1	0.91mi
370 Virginia St Unit 3 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,300	$1.24	43d	1	0.95mi
100 S Elmwood Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1254	$2,232	$1.78	23d	1	0.97mi
100 S Elmwood Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1213	$2,260	$1.86	2d	2	0.97mi
217 W Tupper St Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1150	$1,350	$1.17	43d	1	0.97mi
21 College St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1104	$1,850	$1.68	23d	1	0.98mi
1152 Main St Apt 3 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,400	$2.40	14d	1	0.98mi
298 Main St Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1768	$3,400	$1.92	2d	1	1.00mi
130 Pearl St #304 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1010	$2,475	$2.45	23d	1	1.02mi
130 Linwood Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,900	$2.11	23d	1	1.07mi
237 Main St Buffalo, NY	1.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1608	$4,035	$2.51	1d	9	1.07mi
74 Days Park Unit 8 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1350	$1,695	$1.26	43d	1	1.11mi
126 Cottage St Unit 4 Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.5	1500	$2,000	$1.33	14d	1	1.17mi
190 Whitney Pl Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1180	$1,550	$1.31	43d	1	1.19mi
213 Summer St Unit 3 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1020	$2,450	$2.40	21d	1	1.19mi
344 Hudson St Unit UPPER Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1065	$1,100	$1.03	43d	1	1.20mi
230 Scott St Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1285	$2,325	$1.81	1d	4	1.22mi
279 North St Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	820	$2,050	$2.50	43d	1	1.24mi
888 Delaware Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	899	$2,440	$2.71	23d	1	1.25mi
140 Seymour St Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	23d	1	1.26mi
140 Seymour St Unit First Floor Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	3d	1	1.26mi
344 Elmwood Ave Unit 3rd floor Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	23d	1	1.30mi
916 Delaware Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,625	$2.17	3d	9	1.30mi
31 Norwood Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,950	$1.95	11d	1	1.35mi
88 W Utica St Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	990	$2,150	$2.17	2d	1	1.38mi
88 W Utica St Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	990	$2,150	$2.17	14d	1	1.38mi
233 Pennsylvania St Unit 3 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,350	$1.12	10d	1	1.40mi
118 Ashland Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1326	$1,850	$1.40	14d	1	1.44mi
451 Elmwood Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1633	$3,305	$2.02	43d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-02-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-19
   listed $269,900 Active
3. 2023-07-27
   soldstatus $236,000
4. 2023-07-21
   soldstatus $236,000 Closed Sale or Rented 508-char remark

   Show marketing remark (508 chars)

   All newer carpeting, newer vinyl plank flooring, freshly painted, newer furnace (Feb 2023), new Hot Water tank on May 20! Comfortable lay out with good sized rooms!! Large living room, Fireplace (NRTC), Formal Dining Room, 3 bedrooms, 1.5 baths. There is an attached garage, an apparently very dry basement, and a yard to enjoy in warmer weather! Easy commute to anywhere, with bus service available on Genesee or Sycamore! Make it yours!! Sellers will begin entertaining offers after 5 pm Thurs May 25.

5. 2023-06-18
   status Pending Sale 508-char remark

   Show marketing remark (508 chars)

   All newer carpeting, newer vinyl plank flooring, freshly painted, newer furnace (Feb 2023), new Hot Water tank on May 20! Comfortable lay out with good sized rooms!! Large living room, Fireplace (NRTC), Formal Dining Room, 3 bedrooms, 1.5 baths. There is an attached garage, an apparently very dry basement, and a yard to enjoy in warmer weather! Easy commute to anywhere, with bus service available on Genesee or Sycamore! Make it yours!! Sellers will begin entertaining offers after 5 pm Thurs May 25.

6. 2023-05-26
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 508-char remark

   Show marketing remark (508 chars)

   All newer carpeting, newer vinyl plank flooring, freshly painted, newer furnace (Feb 2023), new Hot Water tank on May 20! Comfortable lay out with good sized rooms!! Large living room, Fireplace (NRTC), Formal Dining Room, 3 bedrooms, 1.5 baths. There is an attached garage, an apparently very dry basement, and a yard to enjoy in warmer weather! Easy commute to anywhere, with bus service available on Genesee or Sycamore! Make it yours!! Sellers will begin entertaining offers after 5 pm Thurs May 25.

7. 2023-05-21
   price $199,900 508-char remark

   Show marketing remark (508 chars)

   All newer carpeting, newer vinyl plank flooring, freshly painted, newer furnace (Feb 2023), new Hot Water tank on May 20! Comfortable lay out with good sized rooms!! Large living room, Fireplace (NRTC), Formal Dining Room, 3 bedrooms, 1.5 baths. There is an attached garage, an apparently very dry basement, and a yard to enjoy in warmer weather! Easy commute to anywhere, with bus service available on Genesee or Sycamore! Make it yours!! Sellers will begin entertaining offers after 5 pm Thurs May 25.

8. 2023-05-15
   status Active 508-char remark

   Show marketing remark (508 chars)

   All newer carpeting, newer vinyl plank flooring, freshly painted, newer furnace (Feb 2023), new Hot Water tank on May 20! Comfortable lay out with good sized rooms!! Large living room, Fireplace (NRTC), Formal Dining Room, 3 bedrooms, 1.5 baths. There is an attached garage, an apparently very dry basement, and a yard to enjoy in warmer weather! Easy commute to anywhere, with bus service available on Genesee or Sycamore! Make it yours!! Sellers will begin entertaining offers after 5 pm Thurs May 25.

9. 2023-03-21
   historical 508-char remark

   Show marketing remark (508 chars)

   All newer carpeting, newer vinyl plank flooring, freshly painted, newer furnace (Feb 2023), new Hot Water tank on May 20! Comfortable lay out with good sized rooms!! Large living room, Fireplace (NRTC), Formal Dining Room, 3 bedrooms, 1.5 baths. There is an attached garage, an apparently very dry basement, and a yard to enjoy in warmer weather! Easy commute to anywhere, with bus service available on Genesee or Sycamore! Make it yours!! Sellers will begin entertaining offers after 5 pm Thurs May 25.

10. 2023-03-20
    listed $229,900 Active 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    All newer carpeting, newer vinyl plank flooring, freshly painted, newer furnace (Feb 2023), new Hot Water tank on May 20! Comfortable lay out with good sized rooms!! Large living room, Fireplace (NRTC), Formal Dining Room, 3 bedrooms, 1.5 baths. There is an attached garage, an apparently very dry basement, and a yard to enjoy in warmer weather! Easy commute to anywhere, with bus service available on Genesee or Sycamore! Make it yours!! Sellers will begin entertaining offers after 5 pm Thurs May 25.

11. 2023-01-31
    soldstatus $146,250 Closed Sale or Rented 403-char remark

    Show marketing remark (403 chars)

    485 Hickory. Contemporary, 1980's two story home with wide open living spaces. Big living room opens to dining room and a U shaped kitchen. Fireplace, glass doors to patio. Three bedrooms abundant with closets, 1.5 bathrooms. Modern, forced air heat, circuit breakers and an attached garage. $5000 credit at closing for new floor coverings. Seller will begin entertaining offers Monday November 14, 2022

12. 2023-01-31
    soldstatus $146,250

    Show marketing remark (403 chars)

    485 Hickory. Contemporary, 1980's two story home with wide open living spaces. Big living room opens to dining room and a U shaped kitchen. Fireplace, glass doors to patio. Three bedrooms abundant with closets, 1.5 bathrooms. Modern, forced air heat, circuit breakers and an attached garage. $5000 credit at closing for new floor coverings. Seller will begin entertaining offers Monday November 14, 2022

13. 2022-11-16
    status Pending Sale 403-char remark

    Show marketing remark (403 chars)

    485 Hickory. Contemporary, 1980's two story home with wide open living spaces. Big living room opens to dining room and a U shaped kitchen. Fireplace, glass doors to patio. Three bedrooms abundant with closets, 1.5 bathrooms. Modern, forced air heat, circuit breakers and an attached garage. $5000 credit at closing for new floor coverings. Seller will begin entertaining offers Monday November 14, 2022

14. 2022-11-04
    listed $139,900 Active 403-char remark

    Show marketing remark (403 chars)

    485 Hickory. Contemporary, 1980's two story home with wide open living spaces. Big living room opens to dining room and a U shaped kitchen. Fireplace, glass doors to patio. Three bedrooms abundant with closets, 1.5 bathrooms. Modern, forced air heat, circuit breakers and an attached garage. $5000 credit at closing for new floor coverings. Seller will begin entertaining offers Monday November 14, 2022

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $734 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,648 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,914/yr (+$159/mo · 260.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,770
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$734
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,142
• − Management: −$2,142
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$2,567
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$616
• After-tax cash flow: $2,696/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 7,932
• Household income: $28,182
• Rent vs Own: 73.5% rent · 26.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 945.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 58% White 19% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 14% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.36%
• Current HPI: 312.6232
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.48%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+92.9% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-01-19 Listed $269,900 WNYREIS
• 2023-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $236,000 Public Records
• 2023-07-21 Sold (MLS) $236,000 WNYREIS
• 2023-06-18 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2023-05-26 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2023-05-21 Price Changed $199,900 WNYREIS
• 2023-05-15 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2023-03-21 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2023-03-20 Listed $229,900 WNYREIS
• 2023-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $146,250 Public Records
• 2023-01-31 Sold (MLS) $146,250 WNYREIS
• 2022-11-16 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2022-11-04 Listed $139,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $734 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.