810 E 21st St Unit Trl5 · Douglas, AZ 85607

$19,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured · 500 Days on market

Built 1981 2,622 sqft lot $17/sqft · 65% below area ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Mobile home for sale, lot is being rented, Seller is currently paying 300.00 a month. Buyers must complete an application to live in the mobile home park and submit to a background check at the Buyer's expense. Applications available at Douglas Realty Group. Mobile Home is being sold as-is.

Key facts

• 2,622 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1981

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $19,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$54,410) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $19k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $279 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $19k).
• Recommended offer: $17k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 50.9% vs local median 4.3% in Douglas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#39 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities D-, commute F.
• Douglas Unified District (4174) (town): math 9% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #209 of 249 in AZ (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 163 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 437 units permitted in Cochise County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $131 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $570 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cochise County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 500 days — a 12% lower offer ($17k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $16,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 500 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 50.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 159.23%
• DSCR: 8.08
• GRM: 1.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $54,410
• List price: $19,000
• Delta: -65.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 62.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.82×
• Total profit: $14,993
• Equity at exit: $2,833

10-year hold

• IRR: 67.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.97×
• Total profit: $37,097
• Equity at exit: $1,643

Cash invested: $5,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85607

• Active inventory: 163
• Price-to-rent: 1.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,060 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$100
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$24 /mo · $285/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $279

Break-even live

Break-even rent $706

Max offer price $19,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,750
• Closing costs: $570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1738 N C Ave Douglas, AZ	3.0	2.0	1371	$1,300	$0.95	44d	1	0.04mi
1134 E 23rd St Douglas, AZ	2.0	1.0	960	$1,000	$1.04	44d	1	0.31mi
902 E 13th St Douglas, AZ	2.0	1.0	900	$800	$0.89	44d	1	0.57mi
703 E 13th St Douglas, AZ	2.0	1.0	1125	$1,000	$0.89	44d	1	0.61mi
938 E 12th St Douglas, AZ	2.0	1.0	731	$795	$1.09	44d	1	0.64mi
716 E 11th St Douglas, AZ	1.0	1.0	900	$700	$0.78	44d	1	0.72mi
1165 E 10th St Unit 3 Douglas, AZ	3.0	1.0	1000	$900	$0.90	44d	1	0.86mi
942 E 8th St Douglas, AZ	3.0	2.0	1468	$1,100	$0.75	44d	1	0.93mi
647 E 8th St Douglas, AZ	1.0	1.0	700	$600	$0.86	44d	1	0.97mi
834 E 5th St Douglas, AZ	2.0	2.0	862	$875	$1.02	44d	1	1.14mi
1951 E 13th St Douglas, AZ	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,500	$1.07	44d	1	1.23mi
1100 N Washington Ave Apt G Douglas, AZ	2.0	1.0	1143	$675	$0.59	44d	1	1.37mi
1955 E 8th St Apt 1 Douglas, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$775	$1.11	44d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $19,000 Active 500 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $19,000 Active 499 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $19,000 Active 498 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $19,000 Active 497 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $19,000 Active 496 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $19,000 Active 494 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $19,000 Active 493 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $19,000 Active 490 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $19,000 Active 489 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $19,000 Active 488 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $19,000 Active 484 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $19,000 Active 483 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $19,000 Active 482 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $19,000 Active 481 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $19,000 Active 480 DOM
16. 2026-02-18
    status Active 292-char remark

    Show marketing remark (292 chars)

    Mobile home for sale, lot is being rented, Seller is currently paying 300.00 a month. Buyers must complete an application to live in the mobile home park and submit to a background check at the Buyer's expense. Applications available at Douglas Realty Group. Mobile Home is being sold as-is.

17. 2026-01-16
    status Pending 292-char remark

    Show marketing remark (292 chars)

    Mobile home for sale, lot is being rented, Seller is currently paying 300.00 a month. Buyers must complete an application to live in the mobile home park and submit to a background check at the Buyer's expense. Applications available at Douglas Realty Group. Mobile Home is being sold as-is.

18. 2025-04-10
    price $19,000 292-char remark

    Show marketing remark (292 chars)

    Mobile home for sale, lot is being rented, Seller is currently paying 300.00 a month. Buyers must complete an application to live in the mobile home park and submit to a background check at the Buyer's expense. Applications available at Douglas Realty Group. Mobile Home is being sold as-is.

19. 2025-01-02
    listed $25,000 Active 292-char remark

    Show marketing remark (292 chars)

    Mobile home for sale, lot is being rented, Seller is currently paying 300.00 a month. Buyers must complete an application to live in the mobile home park and submit to a background check at the Buyer's expense. Applications available at Douglas Realty Group. Mobile Home is being sold as-is.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥99°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,717
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,064
• − Property taxes: −$285
• − Insurance: −$5,214
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,017
• − Management: −$1,017
• − Depreciation: −$553
• Taxable income: $3,567
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$856
• After-tax cash flow: $2,496/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Douglas Unified District (4174)
• NCES district ID: 0402530
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $29,006
• Composite: 12.94/100
• National rank: #9577
• State rank: #209 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Douglas

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #39
• US rank: #7635

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Douglas, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 17,009

Population outlook (Cochise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,402 people
• By 2030: 106,197 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 92,166 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 79,805 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 56,831 · -49.9%
• By 2100: 35,103 · -69.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 88% Two or more races 45% White 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 85%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 24% English-only · Spanish 74% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cochise

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 37.8% · R 61.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: -20.7pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+24.0 2008: R+20.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.92%
• Current HPI: 147.0847
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-24.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Pending — ARMLS
• 2025-04-10 Price Changed $19,000 ARMLS
• 2025-01-02 Listed $25,000 ARMLS