400 W Baseline Rd #276 · Tempe, AZ 85283

$16,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Manufactured · 13 Days on market

Built 1978 8.45 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 1 bed, 1 bath single-family home in Tempe offering great potential. The interior features durable vinyl flooring throughout and a functional layout. The kitchen is being sold AS-IS, ready for your personal touch. Home sits on a crawl space foundation with two window A/C units for cooling. Monthly lot rent available providing an affordable housing option. Property sold AS-IS.

Key facts

• Two window a c units
• Functional layout
• 8.45 acre lot

Tags

• DURABLE VINYL FLOORING
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• CRAWL SPACE FOUNDATION
• TWO WINDOW A C UNITS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot features include a large lot with gravel/stone areas
• Financial info: Current financing: Other; Annual tax information available
• HOA & community: Land lease of $900 per month; No additional association fees listed

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered parking space; 1 carport space
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold property
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Gravel/stone front yard; Gravel/stone back yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Window/Wall cooling unit; No heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hook-ups onsite

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $16k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $16k).
• Cap rate 82.2% vs local median 3.4% in Tempe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#10 in AZ, #2,527 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety D, crime F.
• Tempe School District (4258) (urban): math 17% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #170 of 249 in AZ (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Aguilar School (math 6% / reading 17%, grade F, #971 of 1,109 statewide, top 88%, 401 students, 64% FRL); Fees College Preparatory Middle School (math 10% / reading 18%, grade F, #164 of 218 statewide, top 76%, 789 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 148 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $111 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $480 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $16,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 8.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 82.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 271.27%
• DSCR: 13.07
• GRM: 0.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $89,100
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
400 W Baseline Rd #308	0.08mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+5%)	14mo	$69,000	$60	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.89×
• Total profit: $57,763
• Equity at exit: $2,386

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 27.19×
• Total profit: $117,338
• Equity at exit: $1,383

Cash invested: $4,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85283

• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 0.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,422 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$84
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$20 /mo · $240/yr
• Insurance: −$7
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $1,013

Break-even live

Break-even rent $140

Max offer price $16,000

Occupancy floor 24%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,024	-5% $1,018	+0% $1,013	+5% $1,007	+10% $1,002
Rent	-10% $900	-5% $957	+0% $1,013	+5% $1,069	+10% $1,125
Rate	-1.0pp $1,021	-0.5pp $1,017	base $1,013	+0.5pp $1,009	+1.0pp $1,004

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,000
• Closing costs: $480
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4505 S Hardy Dr Tempe, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	840	$1,199	$1.43	0d	20	0.34mi
505 W Baseline Rd Tempe, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	957	$1,130	$1.18	0d	34	0.39mi
30 W Carter Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	652	$1,344	$2.06	0d	29	0.39mi
15 E Carter Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.5	1119	$1,695	$1.51	23d	1	0.41mi
15 E Carter Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.5	1088	$1,695	$1.56	19d	1	0.41mi
5038 S Hardy Dr Tempe, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1082	$1,208	$1.12	0d	22	0.43mi
4130 S Mill Ave Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	675	$1,192	$1.77	0d	62	0.46mi
5101 S Mill Ave Tempe, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	767	$1,099	$1.43	0d	28	0.48mi
208 E Baseline Rd Tempe, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,099	$1.37	0d	21	0.54mi
530 W La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0	881	$1,650	$1.87	0d	1	0.58mi
422 W Pebble Beach Dr Unit 418 Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0	950	$1,500	$1.58	0d	1	0.61mi
418 W Pebble Beach Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0	950	$1,500	$1.58	0d	1	0.61mi
3730 S Mill Ave Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	628	$1,214	$1.93	0d	25	0.62mi
515 W Pebble Beach Dr Unit 515 Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$2,000	$2.50	2d	1	0.62mi
1222 W Baseline Rd #261 Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.0	980	$1,400	$1.43	0d	1	0.67mi
1133 W Baseline Rd Tempe, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	957	$1,269	$1.33	0d	1	0.69mi
524 W Malibu Dr Unit 4 Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$1,299	$1.73	0d	1	0.70mi
743 W Fordham Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0	988	$1,695	$1.72	17d	1	0.71mi
4839 S Darrow Dr Tempe, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	712	$1,325	$1.86	0d	12	0.74mi
1145 W Baseline Rd Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	825	$1,288	$1.56	0d	10	0.75mi
1311 W Baseline Rd Tempe, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	695	$1,113	$1.60	0d	24	0.83mi
577 E Baseline Rd Tempe, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1033	$1,644	$1.59	0d	14	0.85mi
515 E Dunbar Dr Apt 10 Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0	820	$1,550	$1.89	4d	1	0.85mi
515 E Dunbar Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0	820	$1,695	$2.07	0d	1	0.85mi
5105 S La Rosa Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0	819	$1,495	$1.83	0d	1	0.90mi
200 E Southern Ave Tempe, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	782	$1,175	$1.50	2d	4	0.96mi
200 E Southern Ave Tempe, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	785	$1,200	$1.53	0d	3	0.96mi
1222 W Auburn Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0	1074	$2,200	$2.05	11d	1	0.98mi
708 E Colgate Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0	1073	$1,675	$1.56	0d	1	1.03mi
6105 S McKemy St Unit 6103 Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.0	940	$1,995	$2.12	0d	1	1.04mi
1600 W La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.0	948	$1,809	$1.91	4d	1	1.05mi
1600 W La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.0	948	$1,776	$1.87	2d	1	1.05mi
1440 W La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.5	1075	$1,950	$1.81	0d	1	1.10mi
4630 S Lakeshore Dr Tempe, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1009	$1,426	$1.41	0d	24	1.11mi
1600 E La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	881	$1,281	$1.45	0d	28	1.14mi
995 E Baseline Rd Tempe, AZ	1.0	1.0	848	$1,396	$1.65	16d	1	1.16mi
995 E Baseline Rd Tempe, AZ	1.0	1.0	743	$1,339	$1.80	4d	1	1.16mi
515 W Guadalupe Rd Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	648	$1,604	$2.48	0d	15	1.28mi
5701 S Rural Rd Tempe, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	825	$1,025	$1.24	0d	3	1.30mi
1688 W Village Way Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.0	894	$1,650	$1.85	0d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $16,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $16,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $16,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $20,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $20,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $20,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $20,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $20,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-05-27
   listed $20,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,063
• − Mortgage interest: −$896
• − Property taxes: −$240
• − Insurance: −$80
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,365
• − Management: −$1,365
• − Depreciation: −$465
• Taxable income: $12,651
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,036
• After-tax cash flow: $9,116/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tempe School District (4258)
• NCES district ID: 0408310
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,112
• Composite: 19.7/100
• National rank: #8721
• State rank: #170 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tempe

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #2527

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tempe, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 193,337
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 47,459
• Household income: $84,568
• Rent vs Own: 49.1% rent · 50.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2128.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 15% Asian 8% Black 7% Native American 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -390.57%
• Current HPI: 328.638
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.95%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $20,000 ARMLS