528 Ruben Kehrer Rd #22 · Montoursville, PA 17756

$79,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,013 sqft · SingleFamily · 213 Days on market

Built 2005 Good condition $79/sqft · 72% below area ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable 3 bed, 2 full bath, 2005 Fleetwood doublewide manufactured home located in the desirable Timberend Estates in Fairfield Twp. Sale also includes a brand new 24X10 shed with porch and small loft inside and comes with custom built ramp for easily storing those big tools/toys. (Ramp detaches to keep safe from weathering. ) Home has been well maintained and sits on a large private corner lot. Custom insulation has been added around the perimeter of home. Lot rent is $485 per month.

Key facts

• Brand new shed
• Custom insulation
• Custom built ramp

Tags

• BRAND NEW SHED
• CUSTOM BUILT RAMP
• LARGE PRIVATE CORNER LOT
• CUSTOM INSULATION

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $79,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$283,017) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $80k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $509 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 4.2% in Montoursville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#341 in PA, #2,993 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Montoursville Area SD (suburban): math 43% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #142 of 539 in PA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 73 units permitted in Lycoming County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lycoming County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 213 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $70,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 213 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.30%
• DSCR: 2.21
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $283,017
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: -71.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $19,492
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.63×
• Total profit: $58,801
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17756

• Home prices YoY: -3.2%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,343 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,198/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $509

Break-even live

Break-even rent $699

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $564	-5% $537	+0% $509	+5% $481	+10% $454
Rent	-10% $403	-5% $456	+0% $509	+5% $562	+10% $615
Rate	-1.0pp $549	-0.5pp $529	base $509	+0.5pp $488	+1.0pp $467

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $79,900 Active 213 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 212 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 211 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 210 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 209 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,900 Active 207 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $79,900 Active 206 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 203 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 202 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 201 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $79,900 Active 198 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 197 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 196 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 195 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 194 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $85,000 Active 193 DOM
17. 2026-04-21
    price $85,000 492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (492 chars)

    Affordable 3 bed, 2 full bath, 2005 Fleetwood doublewide manufactured home located in the desirable Timberend Estates in Fairfield Twp. Sale also includes a brand new 24X10 shed with porch and small loft inside and comes with custom built ramp for easily storing those big tools/toys. (Ramp detaches to keep safe from weathering. ) Home has been well maintained and sits on a large private corner lot. Custom insulation has been added around the perimeter of home. Lot rent is $485 per month.

18. 2026-03-18
    price $88,000 492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (492 chars)

    Affordable 3 bed, 2 full bath, 2005 Fleetwood doublewide manufactured home located in the desirable Timberend Estates in Fairfield Twp. Sale also includes a brand new 24X10 shed with porch and small loft inside and comes with custom built ramp for easily storing those big tools/toys. (Ramp detaches to keep safe from weathering. ) Home has been well maintained and sits on a large private corner lot. Custom insulation has been added around the perimeter of home. Lot rent is $485 per month.

19. 2026-02-21
    price $89,000 492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (492 chars)

    Affordable 3 bed, 2 full bath, 2005 Fleetwood doublewide manufactured home located in the desirable Timberend Estates in Fairfield Twp. Sale also includes a brand new 24X10 shed with porch and small loft inside and comes with custom built ramp for easily storing those big tools/toys. (Ramp detaches to keep safe from weathering. ) Home has been well maintained and sits on a large private corner lot. Custom insulation has been added around the perimeter of home. Lot rent is $485 per month.

20. 2026-01-20
    status Active 492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (492 chars)

    Affordable 3 bed, 2 full bath, 2005 Fleetwood doublewide manufactured home located in the desirable Timberend Estates in Fairfield Twp. Sale also includes a brand new 24X10 shed with porch and small loft inside and comes with custom built ramp for easily storing those big tools/toys. (Ramp detaches to keep safe from weathering. ) Home has been well maintained and sits on a large private corner lot. Custom insulation has been added around the perimeter of home. Lot rent is $485 per month.

21. 2026-01-11
    historical Active Under Contract 492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (492 chars)

    Affordable 3 bed, 2 full bath, 2005 Fleetwood doublewide manufactured home located in the desirable Timberend Estates in Fairfield Twp. Sale also includes a brand new 24X10 shed with porch and small loft inside and comes with custom built ramp for easily storing those big tools/toys. (Ramp detaches to keep safe from weathering. ) Home has been well maintained and sits on a large private corner lot. Custom insulation has been added around the perimeter of home. Lot rent is $485 per month.

22. 2026-01-03
    price $89,500 492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (492 chars)

    Affordable 3 bed, 2 full bath, 2005 Fleetwood doublewide manufactured home located in the desirable Timberend Estates in Fairfield Twp. Sale also includes a brand new 24X10 shed with porch and small loft inside and comes with custom built ramp for easily storing those big tools/toys. (Ramp detaches to keep safe from weathering. ) Home has been well maintained and sits on a large private corner lot. Custom insulation has been added around the perimeter of home. Lot rent is $485 per month.

23. 2025-11-18
    listed $90,000 Active 492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (492 chars)

    Affordable 3 bed, 2 full bath, 2005 Fleetwood doublewide manufactured home located in the desirable Timberend Estates in Fairfield Twp. Sale also includes a brand new 24X10 shed with porch and small loft inside and comes with custom built ramp for easily storing those big tools/toys. (Ramp detaches to keep safe from weathering. ) Home has been well maintained and sits on a large private corner lot. Custom insulation has been added around the perimeter of home. Lot rent is $485 per month.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,119
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,198
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,290
• − Management: −$1,290
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $5,142
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,234
• After-tax cash flow: $4,874/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with cosmetic updates needed to modernize the kitchen and bathrooms, and a fresh coat of paint. It is located in a desirable area with a large private lot and a brand new shed.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — can be replaced with modern options
• Minor bathroom fixtures — can be updated with modern options
• Minor paint — can be refreshed with fresh paint

Value-add opportunities

• Both kitchen renovation — modern kitchen will attract more buyers and renters
• Both bathroom renovation — modern bathrooms will attract more buyers and renters
• Both painting — fresh paint will make the home more appealing

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · can be replaced with modern options	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · can be updated with modern options	Minor	$500–3,000
paint · can be refreshed with fresh paint	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both kitchen renovation — modern kitchen will attract more buyers and renters ↑
• Both bathroom renovation — modern bathrooms will attract more buyers and renters ↑
• Both painting — fresh paint will make the home more appealing ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montoursville Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4215750
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $53,988
• Composite: 45.16/100
• National rank: #2677
• State rank: #142 of 539 in PA

Livability — Montoursville

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #341
• US rank: #2993

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,525

Population outlook (Lycoming County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,164 people
• By 2030: 112,221 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 107,613 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 102,950 · -9.8%
• By 2075: 92,987 · -18.5%
• By 2100: 80,924 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Lycoming

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.5) · D 28.8% · R 70.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.3pp toward R · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -41.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.5 2020: R+41.3 2016: R+44.8 2012: R+33.3 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.73%
• Current HPI: 233.9965
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-5.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $85,000 WBVAR
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $88,000 WBVAR
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $89,000 WBVAR
• 2026-01-20 Relisted — WBVAR
• 2026-01-11 Contingent — WBVAR
• 2026-01-03 Price Changed $89,500 WBVAR
• 2025-11-18 Listed $90,000 WBVAR