1625 Asbury Ln · Celina, TX 75009

$515,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,454 sqft · SingleFamily · 230 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,792 sqft lot $210/sqft · at area comps Est $528k · at est. $68/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This open floor plan features 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a study, and a loft. When you enter the front door, you are greeted by 20-foot ceilings and a grand staircase. On the first floor, you will find a secondary bedroom, a full bath, and a study at the front of the home. The kitchen has tons of storage and a large island. Upstairs, you will find a loft, the primary suite, two more bedrooms, and a large secondary bath. This Home is zoned for Celina ISD.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Grand staircase
• 20 foot ceilings

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• 20 FOOT CEILINGS
• GRAND STAIRCASE
• TONS OF STORAGE
• LARGE ISLAND
• ZONED FOR CELINA ISD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $515k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-746 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $407k (21.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $365k (29.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $365k (29.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 2.9% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Marcy B Lykins El (math 38% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 708 students, 22% FRL); Jerry & Linda Moore Middle (math 56% / reading 60%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 903 students, 20% FRL); Celina H S (math 44% / reading 72%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,074 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 3407 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 37d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 230 days — a 12% lower offer ($453k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $364,696 (29.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 230 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.21%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $527,992
• List price: $515,000
• Delta: -2.46%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1629 Asbury Ln	0.02mi	4/3.0	2,579 (+5%)	1mo	$563,985	$219	89
2736 Acadia Mews	0.05mi	4/3.5	2,338 (-5%)	3mo	$474,900	$203	85
1604 Victoria Pl	0.14mi	4/3.5	2,338 (-5%)	2mo	$474,900	$203	82
1717 Palo Duro Way	0.06mi	4/3.5	2,338 (-5%)	7mo	$474,900	$203	81
2628 Muirwood Way	0.15mi	4/3.5	2,338 (-5%)	4mo	$475,900	$204	79
1709 Palo Duro Way	0.07mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,321 (-5%)	5mo	$464,900	$200	77
2118 Newhall Rd	0.53mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,464 (+0%)	2mo	$495,000	$201	66
2209 Ten Mile Creek Rd	0.68mi	4/3.0	2,447 (-0%)	6mo	$572,350	$234	63
2601 Hardwood Dr	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,429 (-1%)	4mo	$490,000	$202	61
2619 Cedar Ridge Rd	0.60mi	4/3.0	2,671 (+9%)	1mo	$575,000	$215	56
2616 Hardwood Dr	0.68mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,464 (+0%)	5mo	$565,475	$229	56
2434 Plumeria Ln	0.43mi	4/4.0	2,784 (+13%)	8mo	$589,990	$212	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-141,553
• Equity at exit: $76,788

10-year hold

• IRR: -52.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.56×
• Total profit: $-225,350
• Equity at exit: $44,528

Cash invested: $144,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 110 active · 13 under contract
• Months of supply: 50.8 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $543,945 ($217/sqft)
• Median days on market: 358 d
• This list price: 34% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -0.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75009

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -4.6%
• Active inventory: 3407
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,647 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,701
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$644 /mo · $7,725/yr
• Insurance: −$215
• HOA: −$68
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$766
• Net cashflow: $-746

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,591

Max offer price $407,060

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-390	-5% $-568	+0% $-746	+5% $-924	+10% $-1,102
Rent	-10% $-1,034	-5% $-890	+0% $-746	+5% $-602	+10% $-458
Rate	-1.0pp $-487	-0.5pp $-615	base $-746	+0.5pp $-879	+1.0pp $-1,015

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $128,750
• Closing costs: $15,450
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2712 Biltmore Dr Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	1964	$2,500	$1.27	0d	1	0.08mi
1637 Palo Duro Way Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2545	$5,800	$2.28	21d	1	0.09mi
2612 Griffith Mews Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	2024	$3,050	$1.51	3d	1	0.21mi
2437 Plumeria Ln Celina, TX	5.0	5.0	3257	$3,611	$1.11	92d	1	0.40mi
2600 Precocious Ct Celina, TX	4.0	3.5	3316	$4,700	$1.42	7d	1	1.25mi
1149 Beautyberry Ln Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	1930	$2,595	$1.34	17d	1	1.26mi
1720 Yaupon Ct Celina, TX	4.0	5.0	3271	$3,450	$1.05	73d	1	1.27mi
2004 Huntersridge Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2815	$2,995	$1.06	34d	1	1.28mi
2522 Runhappy Ct Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2395	$3,500	$1.46	92d	1	1.34mi
2009 Brookhurst St Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2386	$2,895	$1.21	68d	1	1.38mi
3125 Casa Blanca St Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	2331	$3,300	$1.42	37d	1	1.41mi
3138 Casa Blanca St Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2368	$3,000	$1.27	73d	1	1.44mi
2432 Preakness Pl Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2309	$3,500	$1.52	92d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $515,000 Active 230 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $515,000 Active 228 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $515,000 Active 227 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $515,000 Active 226 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $515,000 Active 225 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $515,000 Active 222 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $515,000 Active 221 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $515,000 Active 220 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $515,000 Active 219 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $515,000 Active 217 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $515,000 Active 215 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $515,000 Active 214 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $515,000 Active 213 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $515,000 Active 212 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $515,000 Active 211 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $515,000 Active 209 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $515,000 Active 208 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $515,000 Active 207 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    pricedays on market $515,000 Active 206 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $523,000 Active 205 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $523,000 Active 204 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $523,000 Active 203 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $523,000 Active 202 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $523,000 Active 201 DOM
25. 2026-07-10
    price $523,000 Active 200 DOM
26. 2026-07-09
    days on market $520,000 Active 200 DOM
27. 2026-07-07
    days on market $520,000 Active 198 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $520,000 Active 197 DOM
29. 2026-07-06
    days on market $520,000 Active 196 DOM
30. 2026-07-05
    days on market $520,000 Active 195 DOM
31. 2026-07-03
    days on market $520,000 Active 194 DOM
32. 2026-07-02
    days on market $520,000 Active 193 DOM
33. 2026-07-01
    days on market $520,000 Active 192 DOM
34. 2026-06-30
    days on market $520,000 Active 191 DOM
35. 2026-06-29
    days on market $520,000 Active 190 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $520,000 Active 189 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $520,000 Active 188 DOM
38. 2026-06-26
    days on market $520,000 Active 187 DOM
39. 2026-06-24
    days on market $520,000 Active 185 DOM
40. 2026-06-22
    days on market $520,000 Active 183 DOM
41. 2026-06-21
    days on market $520,000 Active 182 DOM
42. 2026-06-18
    days on market $520,000 Active 179 DOM
43. 2026-06-17
    price $520,000 Active 178 DOM
44. 2026-06-17
    days on market $528,900 Active 178 DOM
45. 2026-06-16
    days on market $528,900 Active 177 DOM
46. 2026-06-15
    days on market $528,900 Active 176 DOM
47. 2026-06-13
    days on market $528,900 Active 174 DOM
48. 2026-06-09
    days on market $528,900 Active 170 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $528,900 Active 169 DOM
50. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $528,900 Active 168 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,764
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,848
• − Property taxes: −$7,725
• − Insurance: −$2,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,501
• − Management: −$3,501
• − HOA: −$816
• − Depreciation: −$14,982
• Taxable loss: −$18,184
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,364
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,587/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready home features a spacious open floor plan with modern amenities and excellent curb appeal. Minor exterior painting and landscaping improvements would further enhance its resale value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Boosts curb appeal ↑
• Rental Replace light fixtures with energy-efficient ones — Saves on energy costs ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 58/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Jerry & Linda Moore Middle B TX #197/1,662 Nat'l #2,084/14,009 High Celina H S C TX #320/1,632 Nat'l #3,986/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813290
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,282
• Composite: 50.49/100
• National rank: #1853
• State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Celina

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Celina, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,210,074 people
• City population: 34,260
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,260
• Household income: $168,250
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 25% of renters

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.07%
• Current HPI: 276.6307
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $525,900 Zillow
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $525,900 NTREIS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $533,073 Zillow
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $533,073 NTREIS
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $530,513 Zillow
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $530,513 NTREIS
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $545,513 Zillow
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $545,513 NTREIS
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $522,935 Zillow
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $522,935 NTREIS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $537,935 NTREIS
• 2025-12-20 Listed $532,935 NTREIS
• 2025-12-19 Listed $532,935 Zillow