2920 E Loma Alta Dr · Douglas, AZ 85607

$99,499

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,201 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2003 0.37 ac lot $83/sqft · 51% below area ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Country living at its finest! Country feel and only minutes to everything that Douglas has to offer. Views for miles. Willcox wine country to the north. Very efficient use of space with two bedrooms and two bathrooms. Great room concept. Come see all this area has to offer and affordable living at its finest!

Key facts

• Views for miles
• Great room concept
• 0.37 acre lot

Tags

• VIEWS FOR MILES
• EFFICIENT USE OF SPACE
• GREAT ROOM CONCEPT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Utilities: Propane; Septic tank; 220‑volt kitchen circuit; Private water company
• Home design: Single family residence; Fee simple ownership; Property listed as fixer
• Construction: Stucco and wood frame construction; Composition roof; Assessor records for building information
• Exterior features: Wire fencing; East/West exposure; Natural desert front; Panoramic mountain views; Dirt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: 220‑volt outlet in kitchen; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Laminate counters
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Has heating
• Interior features: Laminate counters; Dual pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $286 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 4.3% in Douglas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#39 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities D-, commute F, employment F.
• Douglas Unified District (4174) (town): math 9% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #209 of 249 in AZ (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Joe Carlson Elementary School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #752 of 1,109 statewide, top 70%, 419 students, 87% FRL); Ray Borane Middle School (math 5% / reading 17%, grade F, #183 of 218 statewide, top 85%, 387 students, 92% FRL); Douglas High School (math 14% / reading 28%, grade F, #220 of 381 statewide, top 58%, 1,405 students, 83% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 72% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 163 active listings in the ZIP; 437 units permitted in Cochise County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $688 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cochise County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,006 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.34%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $204,574
• List price: $99,499
• Delta: -53.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $2,104
• Equity at exit: $14,836

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $25,262
• Equity at exit: $8,603

Cash invested: $27,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85607

• Active inventory: 163
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,167 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $867/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $286

Break-even live

Break-even rent $804

Max offer price $99,499

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,875
• Closing costs: $2,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,499 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,499 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,499 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,499 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,499 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,499 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,499 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,499 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,499 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,499 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $99,499 Active 1 DOM
12. 2026-05-06
    historical
13. 2026-04-07
    listed $94,900 Active
14. 2026-03-13
    historical
15. 2026-02-18
    price $94,900
16. 2026-01-15
    price $99,900
17. 2025-12-17
    price $109,900
18. 2025-11-13
    price $114,900
19. 2025-10-14
    listed $119,900 Active
20. 2025-07-17
    historical
21. 2025-02-01
    historical $900
22. 2024-10-25
    listed $900
23. 2024-09-03
    listed $190,000 Active
24. 2022-04-29
    soldstatus $92,000
25. 2011-10-26
    soldstatus $107,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $867 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $867 · $72/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,003
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,573
• − Property taxes: −$867
• − Insurance: −$497
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,120
• − Management: −$1,120
• − Depreciation: −$2,895
• Taxable income: $1,930
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$463
• After-tax cash flow: $2,974/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Douglas Unified District (4174)
• NCES district ID: 0402530
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $29,006
• Composite: 12.94/100
• National rank: #9577
• State rank: #209 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Douglas

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #39
• US rank: #7635

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,009

Population outlook (Cochise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,402 people
• By 2030: 106,197 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 92,166 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 79,805 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 56,831 · -49.9%
• By 2100: 35,103 · -69.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 88% Two or more races 45% White 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 85%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 24% English-only · Spanish 74% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cochise

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 37.8% · R 61.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: -20.7pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+24.0 2008: R+20.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.92%
• Current HPI: 147.0847
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-7.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $99,499 ARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $94,900 ARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $94,900 ARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $99,900 ARMLS
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $109,900 ARMLS
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $114,900 ARMLS
• 2025-10-14 Listed $119,900 ARMLS
• 2025-07-17 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-02-01 Rental Removed $900 ARMLS
• 2024-10-25 Listed for Rent $900 ARMLS
• 2024-09-03 Listed $190,000 ARMLS
• 2022-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $92,000 Public Records
• 2011-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $107,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $867 · +21.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.