585 #40 N Sleepy Hollow Ln · Tonto Basin, AZ 85553

$48,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 500 sqft · SingleFamily · 120 Days on market

Built 1998 4,356 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Come See this Roosevelt Lake get a way! 1998 Park Model with add on bonus room Front patio double carport 2 storage buildings furnished and more. Shafy friendly RV park just minutes away from the lake. Forest trails and area amenities. Call today!

Key facts

• Front patio
• Bonus room
• Double carport

Tags

• BONUS ROOM
• FRONT PATIO
• DOUBLE CARPORT
• 2 STORAGE BUILDINGS
• FOREST TRAILS
• AREA AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax listed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 spaces); Detached parking; RV access/parking; Parking pad
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Sewer connected; Propane available; Electricity available
• Home design: Residential park model with additions; Built by Cavco
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Metal siding
• Exterior features: RV hookup; Covered patio; Patio; Landscaped lot; Storage structure; Greenhouse; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Master downstairs
• Flooring: Concrete flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump cooling; Electric forced-air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Vaulted ceilings; Master bedroom on main level; Furnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Laundry in garage; Laundry in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $48k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $290 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($791 rent vs $48k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 1.4% in Tonto Basin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#201 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Tonto Basin Elementary District (4215) (rural): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #143 of 501 in AZ (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Gila County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $921 of equity ($335 loan paydown + $586 appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Gila County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $44,135 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.60%
• DSCR: 2.14
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.21% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $19,864
• Equity at exit: $17,083

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.74×
• Total profit: $50,825
• Equity at exit: $23,114

Cash invested: $13,580 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85553

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 60
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $791 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$254
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$61 /mo · $728/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$166
• Net cashflow: $290

Break-even live

Break-even rent $424

Max offer price $48,500

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $323	-5% $306	+0% $290	+5% $273	+10% $256
Rent	-10% $227	-5% $258	+0% $290	+5% $321	+10% $352
Rate	-1.0pp $314	-0.5pp $302	base $290	+0.5pp $277	+1.0pp $264

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,125
• Closing costs: $1,455
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $48,500 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $48,500 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $48,500 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $48,500 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $48,500 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $48,500 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $48,500 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $48,500 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $48,500 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $48,500 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $48,500 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $48,500 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $48,500 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $48,500 Active 102 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $48,500 Active 101 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $48,500 Active 100 DOM
17. 2026-02-18
    listed $48,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥108°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,492
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,717
• − Property taxes: −$728
• − Insurance: −$242
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$759
• − Management: −$759
• − Depreciation: −$1,411
• Taxable income: $2,875
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$690
• After-tax cash flow: $2,786/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tonto Basin Elementary District (4215)
• NCES district ID: 0405760
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $34,351
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #6531
• State rank: #143 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Tonto Basin

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #201
• US rank: #20347

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonto Basin, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 1,629

Population outlook (Gila County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,229 people
• By 2030: 48,202 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 44,101 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 41,041 · -18.3%
• By 2075: 37,536 · -25.3%
• By 2100: 32,485 · -35.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Gila

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.8% · R 68.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.8pp toward R · 2008: -27.8pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+26.4 2008: R+27.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.21%
• Current HPI: 96.8146
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Listed $48,500 CAAR