147 Twelve Oaks Trce · Madison, MS 39046

$75,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1978 1.00 ac lot ↓ 57% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 147 Twelve Oaks Trace in Canton, MS. This property offers a layout with living space in a quiet, established neighborhood. The home provides strong potential for buyers seeking a primary residence or an investment opportunity. Conveniently located near local amenities, schools, and major roadways.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 1978
• Listed 33 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Other parking
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer: unknown; Electricity available
• Home design: Single family residence (house); One level; Raised foundation with pillar/post/pier
• Construction: Living area reported as 1,200 (public records)
• Exterior features: Asphalt shingle roof; 1-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Oven
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms on one level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom (1.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Heating via fireplace(s); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Fireplace in bedroom and living room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 28.4% vs local median 3.7% in Madison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#4 in MS, #1,556 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Madison County School District (rural): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #3 of 130 in MS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Madison Crossing Elementary (math 52% / reading 55%, grade C, #49 of 375 statewide, top 13%, 775 students, 100% FRL); Germantown Middle School (math 55% / reading 58%, grade B, #14 of 179 statewide, top 7%, 1,008 students, 100% FRL); Germantown High School (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #59 of 197 statewide, top 30%, 1,396 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 29% district-wide (70 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 358 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 553 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 78.79%
• DSCR: 4.51
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 78.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.61×
• Total profit: $75,726
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 82.4%
• Equity multiple: 9.54×
• Total profit: $179,273
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39046

• Home prices YoY: -30.1%
• Active inventory: 358
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,454 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,624/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $1,379

Break-even live

Break-even rent $709

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
250 Dave Brown Rd Canton, MS	2.0	2.5	1790	$2,400	$1.34	21d	1	0.57mi
502 Black Cherry CV Canton, MS	3.0	2.0	1887	$2,600	$1.38	13d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-14
   status Active
3. 2026-02-24
   status Pending
4. 2026-01-21
   listed $75,000 Active
5. 2025-04-18
   status Pending
6. 2025-04-18
   historical
7. 2025-04-17
   price $75,000
8. 2025-03-29
   status Active
9. 2025-03-27
   historical
10. 2025-03-14
    price $156,600
11. 2025-02-10
    price $163,500
12. 2024-12-28
    listed $174,000 Active
13. 2017-08-09
    soldstatus
14. 1988-03-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,624 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,624 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,448
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,624
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,356
• − Management: −$2,356
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $16,355
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,925
• After-tax cash flow: $12,620/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802790
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $70,579
• Composite: 48.08/100
• National rank: #2188
• State rank: #3 of 130 in MS

Livability — Madison

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1556

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 50,443
• Population (ZIP): 29,160

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,509 people
• By 2030: 131,737 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 148,930 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 164,300 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 197,495 · +61.2%
• By 2100: 211,429 · +72.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 63% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+17.3) · D 40.8% · R 58.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -15.6pp · 2024: -17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.3 2020: R+11.8 2016: R+16.1 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.50%
• Current HPI: 154.0441
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-56.9% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-05-14 Relisted — MLSU
• 2026-02-24 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-01-21 Listed $75,000 MLSU
• 2025-04-18 Pending — MLSU
• 2025-04-18 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-04-17 Price Changed $75,000 MLSU
• 2025-03-29 Relisted — MLSU
• 2025-03-27 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-03-14 Price Changed $156,600 MLSU
• 2025-02-10 Price Changed $163,500 MLSU
• 2024-12-28 Listed $174,000 MLSU
• 2017-08-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-03-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+26.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,624 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.