8910 Dawson Manor Dr · Ellicott City, MD 21043

$595,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,296 sqft · Townhouse public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2005 2,614 sqft lot Est $569k · at est. $62/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +5.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Must see! Fully renovated!! Gleaming hardwood floors, granite counter tops, sun room, open floor plan, MBR suite w/ private bath, jacuzzi tub and stand up shower, fully finished basement with walkout door, recessed lights, and more! Nice back yard with deck and 1 car garage. shows very well. Great location, close to shopping, schools and public transportation, and community pool.

Key facts

• $62 HOA
• Garage
• Built 2005

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Ownership: Fee simple; Front foot fee of $48.50 paid annually
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $62.28

Exterior

• Parking: Front-entry attached garage (1 garage space); Driveway parking (1 space); Total of 2 garage/parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas service; Electric service for cooling/heating systems
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Brick construction with brick front; Estimated year built; Very good condition
• Construction: Brick exterior; Other foundation type; Above-grade and below-grade structures
• Exterior features: Rear fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Double oven; Gas range/oven; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level (primary and two additional bedrooms)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (on upper level); Two half bathrooms (one on main level, one on lower level)
• Heating & cooling: 90% efficient forced air heating; Natural gas heating and hot water; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Electric cooling components
• Interior features: Attic; Tub with shower; Walk-in shower; Ceiling fans; Kitchen island; Master bathroom; Walk-in closets; Connecting stairway to basement; Daylight full basement with rear entrance; Heated basement; Basement designed with space for finished rooms; Sump pump
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $595k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-153 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $568k (4.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $494k (17.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $494k (17.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.4% in Ellicott City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#92 in MD, #3,461 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Howard County Public Schools (suburban): math 34% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #1 of 24 in MD (top 4%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 190 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 881 units permitted in Howard County in 2024 (285 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($148k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Howard County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 11 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask is 19733% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $425k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $493,597 (17.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.10%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $569,408
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4861 Lee Hollow Pl	0.10mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,556 (+11%)	0mo	$633,000	$248	67
8915 Lee Manor Dr	0.10mi	3/3.5	2,556 (+11%)	14mo	$570,000	$223	61
4938 Lee Farm Ct #95	0.16mi	2/3.0 (-1)	2,035 (-11%)	8mo	$469,900	$231	60
4945 Webbed Foot Way #57	0.12mi	3/3.0	1,971 (-14%)	14mo	$500,000	$254	57
4925 Lee Farm Ct #67	0.16mi	3/3.0	1,971 (-14%)	14mo	$500,000	$254	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-120,114
• Equity at exit: $88,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-171,180
• Equity at exit: $51,445

Cash invested: $166,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21043

• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 190
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,936 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,120
• Tax from tax record: −$622 /mo · $7,466/yr
• Insurance: −$248
• HOA: −$62
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,037
• Net cashflow: $-153

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,130

Max offer price $567,986

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $148,750
• Closing costs: $17,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8907 Samuel Joy Way Ellicott City, MD	4.0	3.5	2316	$7,500	$3.24	43d	1	0.10mi
8848 Goose Landing Cir Columbia, MD	3.0	2.5	1620	$2,400	$1.48	43d	1	0.30mi
9562 Old Route 108 Ellicott City, MD	3.0	3.0	2481	$4,072	$1.64	2d	3	1.33mi
9407 Aston Villa #52 Ellicott City, MD	3.0	3.5	2000	$3,600	$1.80	23d	1	1.34mi
9276 Soaring Hill Rd Columbia, MD	4.0	3.0	2248	$3,450	$1.53	43d	1	1.41mi
8698 Open Meadow Way Columbia, MD	4.0	2.5	1970	$3,195	$1.62	11d	1	1.49mi
4711 Leyden Way Ellicott City, MD	3.0	3.5	2520	$2,995	$1.19	23d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $62 · $744/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $595,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $595,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $595,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $595,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $595,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $595,000 Coming Soon 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $595,000 Coming Soon 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   remarks 693-char remark
9. 2026-06-07
   listed $595,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,466 · $622/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,466 · $622/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $59,232
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,329
• − Property taxes: −$7,466
• − Insurance: −$2,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,739
• − Management: −$4,739
• − HOA: −$744
• − Depreciation: −$17,309
• Taxable loss: −$12,069
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,897
• After-tax cash flow: $1,061/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Howard County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400420
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $108,056
• Composite: 41.23/100
• National rank: #3535
• State rank: #1 of 24 in MD

Livability — Ellicott City

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #92
• US rank: #3461

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute D Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ellicott City, MD
• County: Howard County · 282,651 people
• City population: 91,852
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 48,525
• Household income: $148,125
• Rent vs Own: 33.1% rent · 66.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1117.0

Population outlook (Howard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 367,857 people
• By 2030: 394,054 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 443,509 · +20.6%
• By 2050: 488,124 · +32.7%
• By 2075: 594,860 · +61.7%
• By 2100: 648,772 · +76.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Asian 25% Black 12% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Other Indo-European 8% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Howard

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+41.8) · D 69.1% · R 27.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +19.9pp toward D · 2008: 21.9pp · 2024: 41.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+41.8 2020: D+44.3 2016: D+33.5 2012: D+21.2 2008: D+21.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -243.18%
• Current HPI: 280.1448
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.10%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+63.1% since first listed

38 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Coming Soon $595,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-09-02 Rental Removed $3,000 BRIGHTMLS
• 2024-08-26 Listed for Rent $3,000 BRIGHTMLS
• 2024-08-25 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-07-29 Listed $599,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-04-09 Sold (Public Records) $425,000 Public Records
• 2014-04-02 Delisted — MRIS
• 2014-03-22 Sold (MLS) $425,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-03-22 Sold (MLS) $425,000 MRIS
• 2014-03-03 Pending — MRIS
• 2014-02-24 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-01-28 Price Changed $439,000 MRIS
• 2013-09-26 Listed $449,000 MRIS
• 2013-09-25 Listed $439,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-09-20 Sold (Public Records) $343,000 Public Records
• 2013-08-15 Sold (MLS) $370,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-08-15 Sold (MLS) $370,000 MRIS
• 2013-04-12 Pending — MRIS
• 2013-04-01 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-11-20 Price Changed $415,000 MRIS
• 2012-06-20 Listed $499,000 MRIS
• 2012-06-20 Listed $415,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-05-11 Delisted — MRIS
• 2012-05-11 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-09-27 Pending — MRIS
• 2011-09-27 Delisted — MRIS
• 2011-09-14 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2011-06-22 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2011-05-23 Listed — MRIS
• 2011-05-23 Listed $364,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-01-10 Delisted — MRIS
• 2007-11-09 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2007-07-26 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2007-02-06 Delisted — MRIS
• 2007-02-06 Listed — MRIS
• 2006-11-30 Listed — MRIS
• 2006-11-21 Delisted — MRIS
• 2006-04-26 Listed — MRIS

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,466 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.