20030 Red Oak Dr · Coffee City, TX 75770

$114,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Manufactured public records · 184 Days on market

Built 1997 1.00 ac lot $84/sqft · 15% above area Est $100k · 15% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.7/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming 1-story, 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home situated on a generous 1-acre lot in LaRue, TX. With 1,368 square feet of living space, this home offers both comfort and functionality in a peaceful country setting. Step inside to an inviting open layout that connects the living room, dining area, and kitchen, creating a bright and welcoming atmosphere for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features ample counter space and cabinetry, designed for both convenience and efficiency. The primary bedroom includes a private bath for added comfort, while two additional bedrooms share a second full bath, making it ideal for family or guests. Outside, the expansive yard provides endless possibilities—whether you envision a garden, outdoor entertaining area, or simply space to relax and enjoy the tranquility of East Texas living. With a full acre, there’s plenty of room to expand or customize to fit your lifestyle. Perfect as a starter home, investment property, or peaceful retreat, this LaRue residence offers a wonderful opportunity.

Key facts

• Ample counter space
• Private bath
• Expansive yard

Tags

• 1 ACRE LOT
• OPEN LAYOUT
• AMPLE COUNTER SPACE
• PRIVATE BATH
• EXPANSIVE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $227 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.0% in Coffee City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#845 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Brownsboro ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #290 of 826 in TX (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($794 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 184 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 184 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.48%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $99,783
• List price: $114,900
• Delta: 15.15%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20414 Hillside Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+15%)	10mo	$89,000	$57	36
4542 Pineview Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,190 (-13%)	22mo	$140,000	$118	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $28,297
• Equity at exit: $51,664

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.50×
• Total profit: $80,419
• Equity at exit: $79,620

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75770

• Active inventory: 98
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $840/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $227

Break-even live

Break-even rent $912

Max offer price $114,900

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $114,900 Active 184 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $114,900 Active 183 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $114,900 Active 182 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $114,900 Active 181 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,900 Active 180 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $114,900 Active 178 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $114,900 Active 177 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $114,900 Active 175 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $114,900 Active 174 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $114,900 Active 173 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $114,900 Active 172 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $114,900 Active 167 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $114,900 Active 166 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,900 Active 165 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $114,900 Active 164 DOM
16. 2025-09-18
    listed $114,900 Active 1077-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1070 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 1-story, 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home situated on a generous 1-acre lot in LaRue, TX. With 1,368 square feet of living space, this home offers both comfort and functionality in a peaceful country setting. Step inside to aninviting open layout that connects the living room, dining area, and kitchen, creating a bright and welcoming atmosphere foreveryday living and entertaining. The kitchen features ample counter space and cabinetry, designed for both convenienceand efficiency. The primary bedroom includes a private bath for added comfort, while two additional bedrooms share asecond full bath, making it ideal for family or guests. Outside, the expansive yard provides endless possibilities—whether youenvision a garden, outdoor entertaining area, or simply space to relax and enjoy the tranquility of East Texas living. With a fullacre, there’s plenty of room to expand or customize to fit your lifestyle. Perfect as a starter home, investment property, orpeaceful retreat, this LaRue residence offers a wonderful opportunity.

17. 2025-09-18
    listed $114,900 Active 1070-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1070 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 1-story, 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home situated on a generous 1-acre lot in LaRue, TX. With 1,368 square feet of living space, this home offers both comfort and functionality in a peaceful country setting. Step inside to aninviting open layout that connects the living room, dining area, and kitchen, creating a bright and welcoming atmosphere foreveryday living and entertaining. The kitchen features ample counter space and cabinetry, designed for both convenienceand efficiency. The primary bedroom includes a private bath for added comfort, while two additional bedrooms share asecond full bath, making it ideal for family or guests. Outside, the expansive yard provides endless possibilities—whether youenvision a garden, outdoor entertaining area, or simply space to relax and enjoy the tranquility of East Texas living. With a fullacre, there’s plenty of room to expand or customize to fit your lifestyle. Perfect as a starter home, investment property, orpeaceful retreat, this LaRue residence offers a wonderful opportunity.

18. 2022-08-17
    soldstatus
19. 1998-12-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $840 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,103 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,263/yr (+$105/mo · 150.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,397
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$840
• − Insurance: −$574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,152
• − Management: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable income: $900
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$216
• After-tax cash flow: $2,513/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsboro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811640
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $45,624
• Composite: 37.38/100
• National rank: #4429
• State rank: #290 of 826 in TX

Livability — Coffee City

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #845
• US rank: #15290

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,736

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 16% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Iranian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-18 Listed $114,900 LAAR
• 2025-09-18 Listed $114,900 GTAR
• 2022-08-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-12-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $840 · +8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.