18218 Paradise Mountain Rd #199 · Valley Center, CA 92082

$149,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1983 0.27 ac lot $103/sqft · 29% below area Est $210k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICE REDUCTION! REMODELED and MOVE-IN READY! A GOLFER'S DREAM HOME! Serenity Country Retirement Living at its Finest. Escape to Your Hillside Haven of Paradise Mountain Area of Valley Center. This Beautifully Remodeled, Single-Level Home in the Gated 55+ Skyline Ranch Country Club Community Blends Resort Style Living with Relaxed Country Charm. The Spacious Completely Remodeled Interior Features 2 Bedrooms, 2 Baths, Spacious Kitchen with Stainless Appliances and Quartz Counters, and a Generous Living Zone that Flows Out to a Welcoming Deck Overlooking Peaceful Greenbelt Landscaping on a LARGE . 27 ACRE LOT. Enjoy Unlimited Golf, a Clubhouse, 2 Swimming Pools, Spa and Fitness Center. With Mature Gardens, Raised-Bed Planting and Easy Outdoor Maintenance, This Home Offers the Ideal Blend of Leisure and Relaxing Lifestyle. Located Just Minutes from Valley View Casino, Bates Nut Farm and Local Wineries, Yet Within Reach of San Diego’s North County Coastal Conveniences and Beaches. Don’t Miss Out On This Opportunity. It Won’t Last Long! Space Rent is $1,750 Monthly which Includes a Private Golf Course, Dog Park, Pools, Spa, Gym, Clubhouse and More! NEW ROOF just Completed. GOLF IS INCLUDED IN THE LAND LEASE! Seller is Motivated and Ready For Your Offer!

Key facts

• Gated community
• Mature gardens
• Remodeled

Tags

• REMODELED
• GATED COMMUNITY
• GOLF COURSE
• SWIMMING POOLS
• FITNESS CENTER
• MATURE GARDENS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($21k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $147k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.5% vs local median 2.5% in Valley Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,017 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing B; Watch: commute C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Valley Center-Pauma Unified (rural): math 16% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #367 of 517 in CA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($127k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $149k implies a 148% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,765 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.60%
• DSCR: 3.25
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $209,958
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -29.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 105	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	12mo	$89,500	$62	90
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 145	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	14mo	$165,000	$115	87
18218 S PARADISE MOUNTAIN RD SPC 109	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	12mo	$140,000	$97	84
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 10	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,306 (-9%)	9mo	$255,000	$195	77
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 150	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	8mo	$267,500	$174	77
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 211 Lot 211	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	2mo	$205,000	$164	76
18218 Paradise Mountaind Rd #174	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,532 (+6%)	10mo	$149,000	$97	76
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 79	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,530 (+6%)	10mo	$115,000	$75	76
18218 Paradise Mtn Spc 47	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+8%)	12mo	$100,000	$64	71
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd #7	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,355 (-6%)	21mo	$92,000	$68	67
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 11	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+8%)	21mo	$180,000	$115	63
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd #12	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	22mo	$129,000	$84	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $87,863
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.29×
• Total profit: $220,628
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92082

• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,345 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $482/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$703
• Net cashflow: $1,759

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,119

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 46 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-04-07
    price $149,000 1287-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1287 chars)

    PRICE REDUCTION! REMODELED and MOVE-IN READY! A GOLFER'S DREAM HOME! Serenity Country Retirement Living at its Finest. Escape to Your Hillside Haven of Paradise Mountain Area of Valley Center. This Beautifully Remodeled, Single-Level Home in the Gated 55+ Skyline Ranch Country Club Community Blends Resort Style Living with Relaxed Country Charm. The Spacious Completely Remodeled Interior Features 2 Bedrooms, 2 Baths, Spacious Kitchen with Stainless Appliances and Quartz Counters, and a Generous Living Zone that Flows Out to a Welcoming Deck Overlooking Peaceful Greenbelt Landscaping on a LARGE . 27 ACRE LOT. Enjoy Unlimited Golf, a Clubhouse, 2 Swimming Pools, Spa and Fitness Center. With Mature Gardens, Raised-Bed Planting and Easy Outdoor Maintenance, This Home Offers the Ideal Blend of Leisure and Relaxing Lifestyle. Located Just Minutes from Valley View Casino, Bates Nut Farm and Local Wineries, Yet Within Reach of San Diego’s North County Coastal Conveniences and Beaches. Don’t Miss Out On This Opportunity. It Won’t Last Long! Space Rent is $1,750 Monthly which Includes a Private Golf Course, Dog Park, Pools, Spa, Gym, Clubhouse and More! NEW ROOF just Completed. GOLF IS INCLUDED IN THE LAND LEASE! Seller is Motivated and Ready For Your Offer!

16. 2025-11-21
    listed $169,000 Active 1287-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1287 chars)

    PRICE REDUCTION! REMODELED and MOVE-IN READY! A GOLFER'S DREAM HOME! Serenity Country Retirement Living at its Finest. Escape to Your Hillside Haven of Paradise Mountain Area of Valley Center. This Beautifully Remodeled, Single-Level Home in the Gated 55+ Skyline Ranch Country Club Community Blends Resort Style Living with Relaxed Country Charm. The Spacious Completely Remodeled Interior Features 2 Bedrooms, 2 Baths, Spacious Kitchen with Stainless Appliances and Quartz Counters, and a Generous Living Zone that Flows Out to a Welcoming Deck Overlooking Peaceful Greenbelt Landscaping on a LARGE . 27 ACRE LOT. Enjoy Unlimited Golf, a Clubhouse, 2 Swimming Pools, Spa and Fitness Center. With Mature Gardens, Raised-Bed Planting and Easy Outdoor Maintenance, This Home Offers the Ideal Blend of Leisure and Relaxing Lifestyle. Located Just Minutes from Valley View Casino, Bates Nut Farm and Local Wineries, Yet Within Reach of San Diego’s North County Coastal Conveniences and Beaches. Don’t Miss Out On This Opportunity. It Won’t Last Long! Space Rent is $1,750 Monthly which Includes a Private Golf Course, Dog Park, Pools, Spa, Gym, Clubhouse and More! NEW ROOF just Completed. GOLF IS INCLUDED IN THE LAND LEASE! Seller is Motivated and Ready For Your Offer!

17. 2025-10-07
    historical
18. 2025-09-08
    price $170,000
19. 2025-03-24
    status Active
20. 2025-03-18
    status Pending Sale
21. 2025-02-13
    listed $220,000 Active
22. 2024-12-13
    historical
23. 2024-09-10
    price $220,000
24. 2024-08-18
    price $229,000
25. 2024-07-23
    listed $249,000 Active
26. 2024-06-25
    historical
27. 2024-05-28
    price $249,000
28. 2024-02-13
    listed $279,000 Active
29. 2024-02-04
    historical
30. 2023-08-04
    status Active
31. 2023-08-04
    price $295,000
32. 2023-07-21
    historical
33. 2023-03-24
    listed $284,000 Active
34. 2018-01-31
    soldstatus $60,000
35. 2018-01-31
    soldstatus $60,000 Sold
36. 2017-12-26
    status Pending
37. 2017-12-26
    historical
38. 2017-10-14
    price $70,000
39. 2017-08-21
    listed $89,000 Active
40. 2017-08-21
    listed $70,000
41. 2009-08-22
    price $129,900 Cancelled
42. 2008-03-14
    historical
43. 2008-03-14
    historical
44. 2007-04-05
    listed $129,900
45. 2007-04-05
    listed $129,900
46. 1989-04-24
    soldstatus $73,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $482 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,132 · $94/mo
• Expected delta: +$650/yr (+$54/mo · 134.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 1 d/yr ≥97°F today · 3 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,145
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$482
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,212
• − Management: −$3,212
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $19,814
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,755
• After-tax cash flow: $16,356/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley Center-Pauma Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600069
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $74,438
• Composite: 24.32/100
• National rank: #7705
• State rank: #367 of 517 in CA

Livability — Valley Center

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1017
• US rank: #24938

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 21,727
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 21,727
• Household income: $126,544
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 241.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 23% Native American 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -293.00%
• Current HPI: 294.6017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+101.9% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $149,000 SDMLS
• 2025-11-21 Listed $169,000 SDMLS
• 2025-10-07 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-09-08 Price Changed $170,000 CRMLS
• 2025-03-24 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-03-18 Pending — CRMLS
• 2025-02-13 Listed $220,000 CRMLS
• 2024-12-13 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-09-10 Price Changed $220,000 CRMLS
• 2024-08-18 Price Changed $229,000 CRMLS
• 2024-07-23 Listed $249,000 CRMLS
• 2024-06-25 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-05-28 Price Changed $249,000 CRMLS
• 2024-02-13 Listed $279,000 CRMLS
• 2024-02-04 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-08-04 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2023-08-04 Price Changed $295,000 CRMLS
• 2023-07-21 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-03-24 Listed $284,000 CRMLS
• 2018-01-31 Sold (MLS) $60,000 SDMLS
• 2018-01-31 Sold (MLS) $60,000 CRMLS
• 2017-12-26 Pending — SDMLS
• 2017-12-26 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2017-10-14 Price Changed $70,000 SDMLS
• 2017-08-21 Listed $89,000 SDMLS
• 2017-08-21 Listed $70,000 CRMLS
• 2009-08-22 Price Changed $129,900 SDMLS
• 2008-03-14 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2008-03-14 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2007-04-05 Listed $129,900 SDMLS
• 2007-04-05 Listed $129,900 CRMLS
• 1989-04-24 Sold (Public Records) $73,800 Public Records

Property tax history

-7.7%/yr

Latest (2013): $482 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.