4017 Berkley Rd · Auburndale, FL 33823

$229,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,015 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1971 0.85 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Honey Stop the Car! Completely remodeled, 3 bedroom pool home on almost an acre of land with no HOA in the heart of Auburndale! New A/C, New floors, New in-ground pool, Newer roof, New appliances, New Water heater, Updated plumbing, Updated electric, New Kitchen, Granite Countertops, Newly remodeled bath, New paint, New window treatments, New just about everything! Giant back yard! Bring your pets, RV, Boat, goats, chickens, whatever your heart desires! There is plenty of space for it all! Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Large fenced yard
• Updated kitchen
• Outdoor space

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• IN GROUND POOL
• LARGE FENCED YARD
• SOLID BLOCK CONSTRUCTION
• QUIET RESIDENTIAL AREA
• OUTDOOR SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-39 ($-466/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#48 in FL, #905 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute C-.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 476 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask is 4% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,949 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.73%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-39,240
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-35,952
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33823

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 476
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,889 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$235 /mo · $2,822/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $-39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,939

Max offer price $222,144

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
706 Auburn Preserve Blvd Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,075	$1.39	3d	1	0.33mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-01
   price $229,000 Pending 10 DOM
2. 2025-10-25
   status Pending
3. 2025-10-15
   listed $220,000 Active
4. 2022-05-17
   soldstatus $305,000
5. 2022-05-16
   soldstatus $305,000 Closed 539-char remark

   Show marketing remark (539 chars)

   Honey Stop the Car! Completely remodeled, 3 bedroom pool home on almost an acre of land with no HOA in the heart of Auburndale! New A/C, New floors, New in-ground pool, Newer roof, New appliances, New Water heater, Updated plumbing, Updated electric, New Kitchen, Granite Countertops, Newly remodeled bath, New paint, New window treatments, New just about everything! Giant back yard! Bring your pets, RV, Boat, goats, chickens, whatever your heart desires! There is plenty of space for it all! Schedule your showing today!

6. 2022-04-12
   status Pending 539-char remark

   Show marketing remark (539 chars)

   Honey Stop the Car! Completely remodeled, 3 bedroom pool home on almost an acre of land with no HOA in the heart of Auburndale! New A/C, New floors, New in-ground pool, Newer roof, New appliances, New Water heater, Updated plumbing, Updated electric, New Kitchen, Granite Countertops, Newly remodeled bath, New paint, New window treatments, New just about everything! Giant back yard! Bring your pets, RV, Boat, goats, chickens, whatever your heart desires! There is plenty of space for it all! Schedule your showing today!

7. 2022-04-04
   listed $329,990 Active 539-char remark

   Show marketing remark (539 chars)

   Honey Stop the Car! Completely remodeled, 3 bedroom pool home on almost an acre of land with no HOA in the heart of Auburndale! New A/C, New floors, New in-ground pool, Newer roof, New appliances, New Water heater, Updated plumbing, Updated electric, New Kitchen, Granite Countertops, Newly remodeled bath, New paint, New window treatments, New just about everything! Giant back yard! Bring your pets, RV, Boat, goats, chickens, whatever your heart desires! There is plenty of space for it all! Schedule your showing today!

8. 2020-12-07
   soldstatus $121,000
9. 2020-11-30
   soldstatus $121,000 Sold 836-char remark

   Show marketing remark (836 chars)

   NO HOA!!! 0.85 ACRES!! This adorable home is situated on just shy of 1 acre, 3 bedroom -one bath! This home is located in a desirable location close to HWY 92 and Polk Parkway. The long welcoming driving leads to a large carport. The adorable front porch is perfect for your morning coffee spot. Enter through the front door enter into the spacious living area that over looks the cozy kitchen with new cabinetry! The dining area is conveniently located off the kitchen, with plenty of space for family meals! The kitchen and dining room overlooks the large fenced in property. .. where your opportunities are endless! The bathroom is updated with lovely ceramic tile and is ready to move in. All 3 bedrooms feature large closets and are spacious! This home is a must see and is ready for you today! Schedule your private showing today!

10. 2020-11-08
    status Pending 836-char remark

    Show marketing remark (836 chars)

    NO HOA!!! 0.85 ACRES!! This adorable home is situated on just shy of 1 acre, 3 bedroom -one bath! This home is located in a desirable location close to HWY 92 and Polk Parkway. The long welcoming driving leads to a large carport. The adorable front porch is perfect for your morning coffee spot. Enter through the front door enter into the spacious living area that over looks the cozy kitchen with new cabinetry! The dining area is conveniently located off the kitchen, with plenty of space for family meals! The kitchen and dining room overlooks the large fenced in property. .. where your opportunities are endless! The bathroom is updated with lovely ceramic tile and is ready to move in. All 3 bedrooms feature large closets and are spacious! This home is a must see and is ready for you today! Schedule your private showing today!

11. 2020-11-05
    listed $114,900 Active 836-char remark

    Show marketing remark (836 chars)

    NO HOA!!! 0.85 ACRES!! This adorable home is situated on just shy of 1 acre, 3 bedroom -one bath! This home is located in a desirable location close to HWY 92 and Polk Parkway. The long welcoming driving leads to a large carport. The adorable front porch is perfect for your morning coffee spot. Enter through the front door enter into the spacious living area that over looks the cozy kitchen with new cabinetry! The dining area is conveniently located off the kitchen, with plenty of space for family meals! The kitchen and dining room overlooks the large fenced in property. .. where your opportunities are endless! The bathroom is updated with lovely ceramic tile and is ready to move in. All 3 bedrooms feature large closets and are spacious! This home is a must see and is ready for you today! Schedule your private showing today!

12. 1993-04-01
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,822 · $235/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,822 · $235/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,674
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$2,822
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,814
• − Management: −$1,814
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$4,411
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,059
• After-tax cash flow: $593/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Auburndale

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #48
• US rank: #905

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 41,779
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,779
• Household income: $71,485
• Rent vs Own: 24.8% rent · 75.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 821.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 13% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Philippines
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.70%
• Current HPI: 316.9436
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.18%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+340.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-25 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-15 Listed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $305,000 Public Records
• 2022-05-16 Sold (MLS) $305,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-12 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-04 Listed $329,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $121,000 Public Records
• 2020-11-30 Sold (MLS) $121,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-05 Listed $114,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,822 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.