1511 Splashing Wave Dr · Iowa Colony, TX 77583

$319,490

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,831 sqft · SingleFamily · 58 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 7,200 sqft lot $174/sqft · at area comps Est $330k · at est. $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Harris plan in the Caldwell Crossing community! This single-story home spans 1,831 sq. ft. and features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. Upon entering, you'll find two secondary bedrooms with access to a shared bathroom, each with carpet flooring, a bright window, and a tall closet. The bathroom has vinyl flooring and a tub/shower combo. Further down the foyer, you'll pass the powder room, utility room (with washer/dryer space), and a third secondary bedroom with carpet flooring and a tall closet. At the back of the home is the open-concept family room, dining room, and L-shaped kitchen, perfect for entertaining. The kitchen has stainless-steel appliances, a pantry, and vinyl floors. The primary bedroom features carpet flooring, two windows, and a walk-in closet. The primary bathroom includes double sinks, a tub/shower combo, and a separate toilet room. Enjoy the covered back patio and spacious backyard!

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• L-shaped kitchen
• Covered back patio

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FAMILY ROOM
• L-SHAPED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $319k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-150 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $298k (6.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (15.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $270k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.2% in Iowa Colony — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#757 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1139 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $270,011 (15.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.01%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $329,740
• List price: $319,490
• Delta: -3.11%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9134 Sunset Marina Way	0.15mi	4/2.5	1,831 (0%)	2mo	$311,990	$170	91
1523 Splashing Wave Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0	2,031 (+11%)	0mo	$349,490	$172	78
1419 Splashing Wave Dr	0.04mi	4/2.0	2,031 (+11%)	1mo	$319,990	$158	78
1522 Shimmering Ocean Way	0.04mi	4/3.0	2,042 (+12%)	1mo	$331,000	$162	76
1507 Shimmering Ocean Way	0.06mi	4/3.0	2,042 (+12%)	1mo	$354,490	$174	75
9111 Serene Haven Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0	2,035 (+11%)	1mo	$319,490	$157	75
9114 Serene Hvn	0.10mi	4/3.0	2,042 (+12%)	1mo	$352,865	$173	73
9007 Serene Hvn	0.11mi	4/3.0	2,042 (+12%)	2mo	$356,865	$175	72
1511 Shimmering Ocean Way	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,595 (-13%)	1mo	$299,990	$188	68
1222 Sandy Shore Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,595 (-13%)	2mo	$309,990	$194	63
9015 Rose Water Trl	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,595 (-13%)	1mo	$309,490	$194	60
9203 Waldrick Trace Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,634 (-11%)	0mo	$275,000	$168	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-68,009
• Equity at exit: $47,637

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-97,594
• Equity at exit: $27,624

Cash invested: $89,457 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1139
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,700 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,675
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$399 /mo · $4,792/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $-150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,890

Max offer price $297,808

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,872
• Closing costs: $9,585
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9423 Grand Spark Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1999	$2,600	$1.30	43d	1	0.44mi
9439 Ruby Mist Dr Rosharon, TX	5.0	2.5	2605	$2,456	$0.94	7d	1	0.52mi
1014 Star Grass Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	2067	$2,375	$1.15	43d	1	0.53mi
1123 Diamond Drape Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,000	$1.08	12d	1	0.53mi
1119 Toledo Bend Pass Rosharon, TX	5.0	3.0	2200	$2,500	$1.14	43d	1	0.82mi
9518 Peridot Green Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1593	$1,886	$1.18	22d	1	0.85mi
8219 House Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1263	$1,970	$1.56	22d	1	0.97mi
2510 Green Jasper Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1561	$2,375	$1.52	43d	1	0.99mi
8414 Aster Glen Way Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.5	2588	$2,650	$1.02	43d	1	1.04mi
8043 House Bank Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	3.0	2512	$2,550	$1.02	18d	1	1.07mi
8102 Buck Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$2,100	$1.49	43d	1	1.07mi
2523 Topaz Hill Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1857	$2,950	$1.59	16d	1	1.10mi
8310 Rose Petals Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,300	$1.25	43d	1	1.17mi
10313 Malta Trace Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1802	$2,545	$1.41	43d	1	1.19mi
1816 Corsica Creek Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1653	$2,719	$1.64	1d	21	1.24mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$3,025	$1.75	1d	6	1.30mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$2,875	$1.66	43d	7	1.30mi
2314 Red Slate Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	4.0	2531	$2,850	$1.13	43d	1	1.34mi
8210 Radial Ct Rosharon, TX	5.0	2.5	2506	$2,550	$1.02	43d	1	1.34mi
10610 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$2,700	$1.74	43d	1	1.46mi
10502 Moon Valley Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1615	$2,725	$1.69	1d	1	1.46mi
10507 Moon Valley Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$2,650	$1.71	1d	1	1.46mi
10622 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1780	$2,775	$1.56	43d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-23
   price $319,490 946-char remark

   Show marketing remark (946 chars)

   Welcome to the Harris plan in the Caldwell Crossing community! This single-story home spans 1,831 sq. ft. and features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. Upon entering, you'll find two secondary bedrooms with access to a shared bathroom, each with carpet flooring, a bright window, and a tall closet. The bathroom has vinyl flooring and a tub/shower combo. Further down the foyer, you'll pass the powder room, utility room (with washer/dryer space), and a third secondary bedroom with carpet flooring and a tall closet. At the back of the home is the open-concept family room, dining room, and L-shaped kitchen, perfect for entertaining. The kitchen has stainless-steel appliances, a pantry, and vinyl floors. The primary bedroom features carpet flooring, two windows, and a walk-in closet. The primary bathroom includes double sinks, a tub/shower combo, and a separate toilet room. Enjoy the covered back patio and spacious backyard!

2. 2026-03-25
   listed $335,490 Active 946-char remark

   Show marketing remark (946 chars)

   Welcome to the Harris plan in the Caldwell Crossing community! This single-story home spans 1,831 sq. ft. and features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. Upon entering, you'll find two secondary bedrooms with access to a shared bathroom, each with carpet flooring, a bright window, and a tall closet. The bathroom has vinyl flooring and a tub/shower combo. Further down the foyer, you'll pass the powder room, utility room (with washer/dryer space), and a third secondary bedroom with carpet flooring and a tall closet. At the back of the home is the open-concept family room, dining room, and L-shaped kitchen, perfect for entertaining. The kitchen has stainless-steel appliances, a pantry, and vinyl floors. The primary bedroom features carpet flooring, two windows, and a walk-in closet. The primary bathroom includes double sinks, a tub/shower combo, and a separate toilet room. Enjoy the covered back patio and spacious backyard!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,401
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,896
• − Property taxes: −$4,792
• − Insurance: −$1,597
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,592
• − Management: −$2,592
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$9,294
• Taxable loss: −$7,263
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,743
• After-tax cash flow: $-55/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home in the Caldwell Crossing community is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a good balance of updates and maintenance to increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value
• Resale Replace carpet with hardwood or tile in bedrooms — Hardwood or tile flooring is more desirable and durable
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances home's appeal and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Resale Replace carpet with hardwood or tile in bedrooms — Hardwood or tile flooring is more desirable and durable ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances home's appeal and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

Livability — Iowa Colony

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #757
• US rank: #13904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Iowa Colony, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 26,236
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $319,490 HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $335,490 HARMLS