2621 Coleman Loop Rd · Hillsborough, NC 27278

$195,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,098 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1967 1.03 ac lot Est $266k · 27% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming brick ranch with endless potential!! This 3-bedroom, 1.5 bath fixer-upper is the perfect opportunity to upgrade and redesign to fit your lifestyle. The home features a Living room with fireplace, a separate dining area, and a kitchen ready for your personal touch. A full basement offers additional space for storage, a workshop. The attached carport is generously sized and could be transformed into an outdoor kitchen or entertainment area. This home is being SOLD AS-IS. Seller has never occupied home. The home is ideal for investors, or buyers looking to create their dream space. Conveniently located near downtown Hillsborough, where you'll enjoy local restaurants, shopping and qui

Key facts

• Attached carport
• Full basement
• Brick ranch

Tags

• BRICK RANCH
• LIVING ROOM WITH FIREPLACE
• SEPARATE DINING AREA
• FULL BASEMENT
• ATTACHED CARPORT
• OUTDOOR KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area listed as 1,148 (above grade finished area 1,148; no below-grade finished area)
• Financial info: Annual tax information available (not included per instructions)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: House; Two levels
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Block and brick/mortar foundation; Lot is approximately 1.03 acres; Zoned AR; Public maintained road access

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas pack heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Hardwood and laminate flooring; Basement present with block and concrete construction

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $251 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (3.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (3.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 2.8% in Hillsborough — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#14 in NC, #1,408 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F.
• Orange County Schools (rural): math 35% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #108 of 178 in NC (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Orange Middle (math 38% / reading 49%, grade D, #182 of 475 statewide, top 40%, 525 students, 40% FRL); Orange High (math 63% / reading 58%, grade C+, #210 of 535 statewide, top 40%, 1,341 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 52% at this address vs 40% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Orange County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 260 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 375 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (34 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $116k; list at $195k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,523 (3.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.52%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $265,716
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2800 Coleman Loop Rd	0.15mi	3/1.0	1,011 (-8%)	12mo	$245,000	$242	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-20,112
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-14,581
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27278

• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 260
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,885 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,610/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $251

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,567

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $362	-5% $307	+0% $251	+5% $196	+10% $141
Rent	-10% $102	-5% $177	+0% $251	+5% $326	+10% $400
Rate	-1.0pp $350	-0.5pp $301	base $251	+0.5pp $201	+1.0pp $149

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-09
   listed $195,000 Active
3. 2026-03-03
   soldstatus $116,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,610 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,610 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,623
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$1,610
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,810
• − Management: −$1,810
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$177
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$43
• After-tax cash flow: $3,059/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703480
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,908
• Composite: 34.8/100
• National rank: #5109
• State rank: #108 of 178 in NC

Livability — Hillsborough

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #14
• US rank: #1408

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 151,666 people
• City population: 27,925
• Metro: Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
• Population (ZIP): 27,925
• Household income: $105,887
• Rent vs Own: 22.4% rent · 77.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 637.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 158,781 people
• By 2030: 168,367 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 186,192 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 203,801 · +28.4%
• By 2075: 249,160 · +56.9%
• By 2100: 285,614 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Philippines, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+51.1) · D 74.9% · R 23.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.3pp toward D · 2008: 44.8pp · 2024: 51.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+51.1 2020: D+51.1 2016: D+51.0 2012: D+42.2 2008: D+44.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.84%
• Current HPI: 234.5809
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.58%
• Metro: Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+67.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $195,000 TMLS
• 2026-03-03 Sold (Public Records) $116,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,610 · +12.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.