8530 Steilacoom Rd SE #150 · Lacey, WA 98513

$174,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · Manufactured public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2010 $98/sqft · 9% below area Est $291k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

UPDATED! LIKE NEW, MOVE-IN-READY! Welcome Home! TRIPLE WIDE home with 2,700 sf. 3 OR 4 BEDROOM, 2 BATHS. The open concept design incorporates thousands of dollars in UPGRADES, including New Paint Exterior/Interior, New laminate Floor (water proof) Wall to Wall. Upgraded Kitchen with beautiful Countertop. New Refrigerator, New Stove, New Dishwasher. The spacious interior offers Vaulted Ceiling, Living room, Family room with optional of 4th bedroom. The primary bedroom located at one end of the home, boasts a large primary bathroom. Open Kitchen with Island. Other 2 bedroom are very large size. ALL AGES RAINIER VISTA Mobile home Park. Excellent location, easy to freeway and closed to Shopping

Key facts

• New paint exterior
• Beautiful countertop
• Triple wide home

Tags

• TRIPLE WIDE HOME
• NEW PAINT EXTERIOR
• NEW LAMINATE FLOOR
• UPGRADED KITCHEN
• BEAUTIFUL COUNTERTOP
• NEW REFRIGERATOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $170k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 3.0% in Lacey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#33 in WA, #581 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+.
• North Thurston Public Schools (suburban): math 51% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #80 of 291 in WA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 307 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $169,701 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.14%
• DSCR: 2.21
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $290,855
• List price: $174,950
• Delta: -39.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8530 Steilacoom Rd SE #147	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (-6%)	10mo	$115,000	$68	77
9101 Steilacoom Rd SE #158	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+1%)	10mo	$91,900	$51	65
8839 Daffodil Ln SE	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,940 (+9%)	9mo	$420,000	$216	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $43,416
• Equity at exit: $26,086

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.73×
• Total profit: $133,665
• Equity at exit: $15,126

Cash invested: $48,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98513

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 307
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,816 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$127 /mo · $1,521/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$591
• Net cashflow: $1,108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,414

Max offer price $174,950

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,738
• Closing costs: $5,248
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8400 Ostrom Ave SE Lacey, WA	4.0	2.5	2251	$3,250	$1.44	43d	1	0.22mi
1446 Laredo Dr SE Olympia, WA	3.0	3.0	1828	$2,700	$1.48	13d	1	0.82mi
1203 Wynoochee Pl NE Olympia, WA	4.0	3.0	1755	$2,450	$1.40	43d	1	0.89mi
1110 Copper Wood Ln SE Lacey, WA	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1134	$1,742	$1.54	5d	1	0.99mi
8420 13th Ave SE Olympia, WA	3.0	2.5	2164	$2,800	$1.29	43d	1	1.01mi
9129 Skokomish Way NE Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1460	$2,650	$1.82	21d	1	1.05mi
1136 Pinedrop Loop SE Olympia, WA	3.0	1.5	1352	$2,400	$1.78	43d	1	1.12mi
7016 Husky Way SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.0	1681	$2,550	$1.52	13d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-08
   listed $174,950 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,521 · $127/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,715 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: +$193/yr (+$16/mo · 12.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,796
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,800
• − Property taxes: −$1,521
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,704
• − Management: −$2,704
• − Depreciation: −$5,089
• Taxable income: $11,103
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,665
• After-tax cash flow: $10,629/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Thurston Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 5305850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,338
• Composite: 51.09/100
• National rank: #3798
• State rank: #80 of 291 in WA

Livability — Lacey

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #581

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lacey, WA
• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 108,850
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 38,017
• Household income: $113,053
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 566.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 12% Asian 8% Black 5% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -377.44%
• Current HPI: 337.436
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.43%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Listed $174,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,521 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.