4014 15th Ave S · Minneapolis, MN 55407

$80,600

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 639 sqft · SingleFamily · 138 Days on market

Built 1965 Fair condition $126/sqft · 53% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautiful one bedroom, one bathroom, condo is centrally located in South Minneapolis. The condo is in the "Bancroft" neighborhood. The complex has a swimming pool during summer months, beautiful gardens and lush vegetation. This condo was built in 1965. The condo's are individually owned and the building is quiet and tenants nice. This condo is close to parks, golf, Lake Nokomis and of course the great pizza place, Fat Lornenzo's! The condo is great for someone starting out in life as it would be affordable and you would own it! This condo would be perfect for that new person starting out to explore their creative decorating side and spruce the place up a bit! This condo has off street parking, but also has an under ground parking garage for a small additional cost to keep your car out of the elements or has a close parking spot to the south of the balcony. Please let me know if you would like to make an offer or view this incredible condo!

Key facts

• Close to parks
• Lush vegetation
• Close to golf

Tags

• SWIMMING POOL
• BEAUTIFUL GARDENS
• LUSH VEGETATION
• BANCROFT NEIGHBORHOOD
• CLOSE TO PARKS
• CLOSE TO GOLF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $81k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $428 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $81k).
• Recommended offer: $71k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 3.1% in Minneapolis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#110 in MN, #2,525 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, crime F.
• Minneapolis Public School District (urban): math 35% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #217 of 301 in MN (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 147 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $557 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($71k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $70,928 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.77%
• DSCR: 2.01
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $172,683
• List price: $80,600
• Delta: -53.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $15,888
• Equity at exit: $12,018

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.48×
• Total profit: $55,999
• Equity at exit: $6,969

Cash invested: $22,568 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 34 Tenant-Leaning
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Minneapolis: 34 Tenant-Leaning · D+50

Tenant Opportunity to Purchase; renter's protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55407

• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,247 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$423
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$101 /mo · $1,209/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $428

Break-even live

Break-even rent $705

Max offer price $80,600

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $484	-5% $456	+0% $428	+5% $400	+10% $373
Rent	-10% $330	-5% $379	+0% $428	+5% $478	+10% $527
Rate	-1.0pp $469	-0.5pp $449	base $428	+0.5pp $407	+1.0pp $386

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,150
• Closing costs: $2,418
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4014 15th Ave S Unit 11B Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	671	$1,475	$2.20	44d	1	0.00mi
4010 S 15th Ave Unit 8 Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	680	$1,250	$1.84	15d	1	0.01mi
1818 E 41st St Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	600	$975	$1.62	44d	1	0.32mi
4106 Chicago Ave Unit 7 Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	640	$1,199	$1.87	5d	1	0.45mi
4112 Chicago Ave Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	640	$1,099	$1.72	25d	1	0.45mi
4112 Chicago Ave Unit 8 Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	640	$1,145	$1.79	44d	1	0.45mi
3705 Chicago Ave Unit 2 Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	575	$1,000	$1.74	44d	1	0.57mi
3520 12th Ave S Minneapolis, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,100	$1.52	44d	1	0.62mi
3521 12th Ave S Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	600	$1,100	$1.83	44d	1	0.63mi
3540 11th Ave S Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	600	$1,100	$1.83	44d	1	0.63mi
3718 Oakland Ave Unit 2 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	700	$1,150	$1.64	25d	1	0.72mi
3421 15th Ave S Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	750	$1,198	$1.60	44d	1	0.73mi
3400 10th Ave S Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	600	$1,100	$1.83	44d	1	0.83mi
3806 24th Ave S Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	772	$1,752	$2.27	5d	11	0.85mi
3251 14th Ave S Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	600	$1,099	$1.83	15d	1	0.92mi
2504 E 42nd St Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	666	$1,524	$2.29	25d	1	0.93mi
3806 28th Ave S Minneapolis, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	820	$1,345	$1.64	25d	3	1.10mi
3117 15th Ave S Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	650	$1,398	$2.15	17d	4	1.10mi
3100 Bloomington Ave Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	507	$1,099	$2.17	44d	1	1.13mi
3215 21st Ave S Unit 3215201 Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	550	$1,365	$2.48	25d	1	1.14mi
4200 1st Ave S Unit 9 Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	750	$1,149	$1.53	25d	1	1.15mi
3503 2nd Ave S Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	560	$1,388	$2.48	0d	5	1.16mi
4201 Nicollet Ave Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	545	$1,555	$2.85	25d	1	1.17mi
4222 Nicollet Ave Minneapolis, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	959	$1,210	$1.26	0d	8	1.22mi
3816 Nicollet Ave Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	550	$1,062	$1.93	17d	2	1.22mi
3116 22nd Ave S Unit 4 Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	585	$995	$1.70	0d	1	1.27mi
2944 17th Ave S Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	488	$1,224	$2.51	5d	5	1.30mi
3815 Hiawatha Ave Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	457	$1,527	$3.34	5d	8	1.30mi
3105 22nd Ave S Unit 4 Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	557	$950	$1.71	44d	1	1.32mi
3105 22nd Ave S Unit 9 Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	557	$975	$1.75	25d	1	1.32mi
811 E Lake St Unit 403 Minneapolis, MN	—	1.0	463	$965	$2.08	44d	1	1.32mi
3536 Nicollet Ave Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	744	$1,883	$2.53	3d	12	1.32mi
3415 Nicollet Ave Minneapolis, MN	—	1.0	375	$800	$2.13	4d	1	1.37mi
3029 22nd Ave S Unit 425 Minneapolis, MN	—	1.0	438	$1,130	$2.58	25d	1	1.37mi
3029 22nd Ave S Unit 403 Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	637	$1,229	$1.93	4d	1	1.37mi
3029 22nd Ave S Unit 209 Minneapolis, MN	—	1.0	467	$1,179	$2.52	25d	1	1.37mi
3029 22nd Ave S Unit 505 Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	693	$1,249	$1.80	25d	1	1.37mi
3029 22nd Ave S Unit 217 Minneapolis, MN	—	1.0	438	$1,099	$2.51	4d	1	1.37mi
3029 22nd Ave S Unit 523 Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	636	$1,349	$2.12	0d	1	1.37mi
3029 22nd Ave S Unit 417 Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	636	$1,300	$2.04	4d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-04
   pricestatusdays on market $80,600 Under Contract 138 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $99,600 Active 137 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $99,600 Active 136 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $99,600 Active 135 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $99,600 Active 134 DOM
6. 2026-02-01
   price $99,600 977-char remark

   Show marketing remark (977 chars)

   This beautiful one bedroom, one bathroom, condo is centrally located in South Minneapolis. The condo is in the "Bancroft" neighborhood. The complex has a swimming pool during summer months, beautiful gardens and lush vegetation. This condo was built in 1965. The condo's are individually owned and the building is quiet and tenants nice. This condo is close to parks, golf, Lake Nokomis and of course the great pizza place, Fat Lornenzo's! The condo is great for someone starting out in life as it would be affordable and you would own it! This condo would be perfect for that new person starting out to explore their creative decorating side and spruce the place up a bit! This condo has off street parking, but also has an under ground parking garage for a small additional cost to keep your car out of the elements or has a close parking spot to the south of the balcony. Please let me know if you would like to make an offer or view this incredible condo!

7. 2026-01-17
   listed $106,600 Active 977-char remark

   Show marketing remark (977 chars)

   This beautiful one bedroom, one bathroom, condo is centrally located in South Minneapolis. The condo is in the "Bancroft" neighborhood. The complex has a swimming pool during summer months, beautiful gardens and lush vegetation. This condo was built in 1965. The condo's are individually owned and the building is quiet and tenants nice. This condo is close to parks, golf, Lake Nokomis and of course the great pizza place, Fat Lornenzo's! The condo is great for someone starting out in life as it would be affordable and you would own it! This condo would be perfect for that new person starting out to explore their creative decorating side and spruce the place up a bit! This condo has off street parking, but also has an under ground parking garage for a small additional cost to keep your car out of the elements or has a close parking spot to the south of the balcony. Please let me know if you would like to make an offer or view this incredible condo!

8. 2024-10-09
   historical $1,100
9. 2024-08-09
   listed $1,100
10. 2023-07-09
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,967
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,515
• − Property taxes: −$1,209
• − Insurance: −$403
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,197
• − Management: −$1,197
• − Depreciation: −$2,345
• Taxable income: $4,100
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$984
• After-tax cash flow: $4,155/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This one-bedroom condo requires moderate renovations to improve its appearance and value. Painting, updating cabinets, and landscaping would significantly enhance its appeal.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Kitchen cabinets — Dated appearance
• Minor Bathroom clutter — Items need to be organized

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and updating kitchen cabinets — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Organizing bathroom — Improves functionality and appearance
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Dated appearance	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Bathroom clutter · Items need to be organized	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$3,500–18,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting and updating kitchen cabinets — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Organizing bathroom — Improves functionality and appearance ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Minneapolis Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2721240
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,521
• Composite: 34.92/100
• National rank: #5067
• State rank: #217 of 301 in MN

Livability — Minneapolis

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #110
• US rank: #2525

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C- Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Minneapolis, MN
• County: Hennepin County · 1,150,272 people
• City population: 417,555
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 37,667
• Household income: $78,464
• Rent vs Own: 41.1% rent · 58.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1583.0

Population outlook (Hennepin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,405,227 people
• By 2030: 1,492,650 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 1,660,157 · +18.1%
• By 2050: 1,823,498 · +29.8%
• By 2075: 2,221,283 · +58.1%
• By 2100: 2,509,976 · +78.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 18% Two or more races 10% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hennepin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.6) · D 70.2% · R 27.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.0pp toward D · 2008: 28.6pp · 2024: 42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.6 2020: D+43.2 2016: D+35.3 2012: D+27.1 2008: D+28.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -211.97%
• Current HPI: 292.0322
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.30%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+8954.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-01 Price Changed $99,600 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2026-01-17 Listed $106,600 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2024-10-09 Rental Removed $1,100 RENT.
• 2024-08-09 Listed for Rent $1,100 RENT.
• 2023-07-09 Rental Removed — RENT.