2891 Legion Ave N · Lake Elmo, MN 55042

$399,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,794 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1969 0.37 ac lot $223/sqft · 6% below area Est $427k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.37 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1969

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed as non-fractional ownership
• Financial info: FHA mortgage type noted

Exterior

• Parking: Attached tuck-under garage; 2-car garage (18 x 20)
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer (connected); Natural gas; Xcel Energy power
• Home design: Residential property; Split entry (bi-level) layout; Three-season porch
• Construction: Foundation area: 1,122 (finished area noted); Above-grade finished area and total above-grade area listed; Below-grade finished area listed
• Exterior features: Enclosed/Screened rear porch; Stone exterior; Tree coverage - medium

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the upper level); Additional flex room on lower level
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the upper level; One 3/4 bathroom in the basement
• Heating & cooling: Boiler heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished and partially finished basement; Three-season porch; Informal dining area / living-dining room layout; Vaulted ceilings; Hardwood floors; Wood-burning fireplace in the family room
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry located in basement (laundry closet)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $369 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $389k (2.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $388k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.7% in Lake Elmo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#271 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Stillwater Area Public School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #54 of 301 in MN (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($388k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $103k; list at $400k implies a 288% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $387,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.96%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $427,067
• List price: $399,900
• Delta: -6.36%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11120 32nd St N	0.53mi	3/3.0	1,688 (-6%)	21mo	$300,000	$178	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-41,258
• Equity at exit: $59,626

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-5,546
• Equity at exit: $34,576

Cash invested: $111,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55042

• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,893 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax from tax record: −$442 /mo · $5,308/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$818
• Net cashflow: $369

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,425

Max offer price $399,900

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $596	-5% $482	+0% $369	+5% $256	+10% $143
Rent	-10% $62	-5% $216	+0% $369	+5% $523	+10% $677
Rate	-1.0pp $571	-0.5pp $471	base $369	+0.5pp $266	+1.0pp $160

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,975
• Closing costs: $11,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3472 Knightsbridge Trl N Lake Elmo, MN	4.0	2.5	2022	$4,000	$1.98	44d	1	0.96mi
10974 37th St N Lake Elmo, MN	4.0	3.0	2299	$4,000	$1.74	44d	1	1.01mi
11300 Upper 39th Street Cir N Lake Elmo, MN	2.0	2.5	2220	$3,645	$1.64	0d	12	1.10mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,900 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,900 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,900 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,900 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,900 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,900 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,900 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,900 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $399,900 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $399,900 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,900 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,900 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,900 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,900 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    price $399,900 857-char remark
16. 2026-05-01
    listed $429,900 Active 857-char remark
17. 2026-04-25
    historical $429,900 857-char remark
18. 1993-05-03
    soldstatus $103,000
19. 1993-02-23
    soldstatus $103,000
20. 1989-12-06
    soldstatus $95,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,308 · $442/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,308 · $442/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,714
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,401
• − Property taxes: −$5,308
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,737
• − Management: −$3,737
• − Depreciation: −$11,633
• Taxable loss: −$2,102
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$504
• After-tax cash flow: $4,936/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stillwater Area Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2738190
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $84,438
• Composite: 49.8/100
• National rank: #1954
• State rank: #54 of 301 in MN

Livability — Lake Elmo

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #271
• US rank: #5860

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Elmo, MN
• City population: 13,156
• Population (ZIP): 13,156

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 278,554 people
• By 2030: 290,465 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 310,014 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 324,118 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 362,697 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 381,491 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 53.5% · R 44.6% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+9.2 2016: D+1.9 2012: D+0.8 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.91%
• Current HPI: 224.0264
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+320.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $399,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $429,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-25 Coming Soon $429,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $103,000 Public Records
• 1993-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $103,000 Public Records
• 1989-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,308 · -11.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.