904 & 908 Lakeview Dr · China, ME 04358

$389,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,183 sqft · SingleFamily · 196 Days on market

Built 1900 1.30 ac lot $329/sqft · 30% below area Est $555k · 30% under ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +7.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.3/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bring your vision to this classic Maine farmhouse set just minutes from beautiful China Lake. Full of history and New England character, this unique property includes an old farmhouse, a separate cottage in need of restoration, and a massive historic barn offering exceptional opportunities and endless possibilities. The main home evokes the warmth and nostalgia of grandma's house, while the true standout is the huge, three-level barn. This classic structure offers impressive space for storage, workshops, antique sales, or a creative conversion. Enjoy close access to China Lake for swimming, boating, and year-round recreation. Located in a peaceful rural setting yet close to Augusta, Waterville and local amenities. This property presents a rare chance to create something truly special!

Key facts

• Three-level barn
• Separate cottage
• Historic barn

Tags

• CLASSIC MAINE FARMHOUSE
• SEPARATE COTTAGE
• HISTORIC BARN
• THREE-LEVEL BARN
• CLOSE ACCESS TO CHINA LAKE
• PEACEFUL RURAL SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $389k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-21k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $140k (64.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (68.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $122k (68.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• RSU 18 (rural): math 88% / reading 89% proficiency, ranked #36 of 112 in ME (top 32%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: China Primary School (math 92% / reading 87%, grade A+, #60 of 294 statewide, top 24%, 245 students, 30% FRL); China Middle School (math 87% / reading 92%, grade A+, #17 of 85 statewide, top 23%, 198 students, 37% FRL); Messalonskee High School (math 92% / reading 92%, grade A+, #27 of 108 statewide, top 36%, 725 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 30% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 460 units permitted in Kennebec County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $42k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $39k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Kennebec County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$67k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($342k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $122,388 (68.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 69% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.31% ✗
• Cap rate: 0.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -18.97%
• DSCR: 0.16
• GRM: 26.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $555,292
• List price: $389,000
• Delta: -29.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30 35th Fire Rd	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (+1%)	8mo	$615,000	$513	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $102,240
• Equity at exit: $350,442

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.56×
• Total profit: $387,334
• Equity at exit: $755,741

Cash invested: $108,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Maine: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Portland has rent control referendum (2020); strong habitability; security deposit caps.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 04358

• Home prices YoY: 11.6%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 26.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,224 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,040
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$486 /mo · $5,835/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $-1,721

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,403

Max offer price $139,907

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,453	-5% $-1,587	+0% $-1,721	+5% $-1,856	+10% $-1,990
Rent	-10% $-1,818	-5% $-1,770	+0% $-1,721	+5% $-1,673	+10% $-1,625
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,526	-0.5pp $-1,622	base $-1,721	+0.5pp $-1,822	+1.0pp $-1,925

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,250
• Closing costs: $11,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $389,000 Active 196 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $389,000 Active 194 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $389,000 Active 193 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $389,000 Active 192 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $389,000 Active 191 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $389,000 Active 190 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $389,000 Active 188 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $389,000 Active 187 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $389,000 Active 184 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $389,000 Active 183 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $389,000 Active 182 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $389,000 Active 179 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $389,000 Active 178 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $389,000 Active 177 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $389,000 Active 176 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $389,000 Active 175 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $389,000 Active 174 DOM
18. 2026-04-20
    price $389,000 795-char remark

    Show marketing remark (795 chars)

    Bring your vision to this classic Maine farmhouse set just minutes from beautiful China Lake. Full of history and New England character, this unique property includes an old farmhouse, a separate cottage in need of restoration, and a massive historic barn offering exceptional opportunities and endless possibilities. The main home evokes the warmth and nostalgia of grandma's house, while the true standout is the huge, three-level barn. This classic structure offers impressive space for storage, workshops, antique sales, or a creative conversion. Enjoy close access to China Lake for swimming, boating, and year-round recreation. Located in a peaceful rural setting yet close to Augusta, Waterville and local amenities. This property presents a rare chance to create something truly special!

19. 2025-12-08
    listed $395,000 Active 795-char remark

    Show marketing remark (795 chars)

    Bring your vision to this classic Maine farmhouse set just minutes from beautiful China Lake. Full of history and New England character, this unique property includes an old farmhouse, a separate cottage in need of restoration, and a massive historic barn offering exceptional opportunities and endless possibilities. The main home evokes the warmth and nostalgia of grandma's house, while the true standout is the huge, three-level barn. This classic structure offers impressive space for storage, workshops, antique sales, or a creative conversion. Enjoy close access to China Lake for swimming, boating, and year-round recreation. Located in a peaceful rural setting yet close to Augusta, Waterville and local amenities. This property presents a rare chance to create something truly special!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,687
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,790
• − Property taxes: −$5,835
• − Insurance: −$1,945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,175
• − Management: −$1,175
• − Depreciation: −$11,316
• Taxable loss: −$28,550
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,852
• After-tax cash flow: $-13,805/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: RSU 18
• NCES district ID: 2314779
• Math proficiency: 88% ▲ 53.00%
• Reading proficiency: 89% ▲ 32.00%
• Median HH income: $55,125
• Composite: 75.2/100
• National rank: #139
• State rank: #36 of 112 in ME

Livability — China

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,475

Population outlook (Kennebec County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 115,421 people
• By 2030: 111,852 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 103,757 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 95,710 · -17.1%
• By 2075: 78,172 · -32.3%
• By 2100: 59,500 · -48.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 23% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Korean 1% Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kennebec

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 50.2% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.5pp toward R · 2008: 14.8pp · 2024: -2.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.8 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+3.7 2012: D+13.5 2008: D+14.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 39.91%
• Current HPI: 383.0046
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-1.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $389,000 MREIS
• 2025-12-08 Listed $395,000 MREIS