510 Donalds Dr · Varna, NY 14850

$71,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured · 138 Days on market

Built 2019 Est $68k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• ARV discount +5.3/15.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Hillside Acres. NEWER (2019) manufactured home located near Cornell. House offers 2 bedroom, 1 full bath with bright open floor plan. Home features an spacious kitchen with attractive stainless-steel appliances, plenty of counter space and an open functional layout that connects living room, dining area and kitchen. It can be an opportunity for anyone that is attending one of the local colleges to live in a clean, spacious and private space while saving some money. Home in park conveniently located close to hiking trails, Cornell Plantations, dining, shopping, public transportation and everything Ithaca has to offer. Bus service is available at the park entrance. Lot rent include

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Built 2019
• Listed 138 days

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• OPEN FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease: $542

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel driveway (no garage)
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected; Electricity connected (circuit breakers)
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); Skyline single wide model; One level / single-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Foam insulation
• Exterior features: Asphalt shingle roof; Shed/storage on the property; Rectangular lot; Near public transit; Other lot features (see remarks)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Disposal; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (electric and propane); Ceiling fans; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fans; Other features (see remarks); Drapes and window treatments; Partially furnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $72k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $804 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $72k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Ithaca City School District (urban): math 57% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #195 of 590 in NY (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Caroline Elementary School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 293 students, 32% FRL); Boynton Middle School (math 36% / reading 64%, grade C, #261 of 729 statewide, top 36%, 526 students, 36% FRL); Ithaca Senior High School (math 95% / reading 95%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 1,341 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 33% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 328 active listings in the ZIP; 382 units permitted in Tompkins County in 2024 (208 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $494 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tompkins County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $62,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.18%
• DSCR: 3.32
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $68,208
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
510 Donalds Dr	0.00mi	2/1.0	784 (0%)	0mo	$68,500	$87	100
705 Mussell St	0.13mi	2/1.0	840 (+7%)	3mo	$26,000	$31	80

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.18×
• Total profit: $43,637
• Equity at exit: $10,661

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.05×
• Total profit: $121,151
• Equity at exit: $6,182

Cash invested: $20,020 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14850

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 328
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,727 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$375
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$89 /mo · $1,072/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $804

Break-even live

Break-even rent $710

Max offer price $71,500

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $853	-5% $829	+0% $804	+5% $779	+10% $755
Rent	-10% $668	-5% $736	+0% $804	+5% $872	+10% $941
Rate	-1.0pp $840	-0.5pp $822	base $804	+0.5pp $786	+1.0pp $767

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,875
• Closing costs: $2,145
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $71,500 Pending 138 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $71,500 Active Under Contract 138 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $71,500 Active Under Contract 137 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $71,500 Active Under Contract 136 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $71,500 Active Under Contract 135 DOM
6. 2026-03-30
   historical Active Under Contract
7. 2026-01-15
   listed $71,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,729
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,005
• − Property taxes: −$1,072
• − Insurance: −$1,155
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,658
• − Management: −$1,658
• − Depreciation: −$2,080
• Taxable income: $9,100
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,184
• After-tax cash flow: $7,465/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ithaca City School District
• NCES district ID: 3615570
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $46,528
• Composite: 54.01/100
• National rank: #1397
• State rank: #195 of 590 in NY

Livability — Varna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Varna, NY
• County: Tompkins County · 68,610 people
• Metro: Ithaca, NY
• Population (ZIP): 68,610
• Household income: $71,445
• Rent vs Own: 55.2% rent · 44.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 5169.0

Population outlook (Tompkins County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,958 people
• By 2030: 118,774 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 125,927 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 133,599 · +17.2%
• By 2075: 156,759 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 169,896 · +49.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Asian 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Chinese 5% Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Tompkins

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+50.6) · D 75.3% · R 24.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.6pp toward D · 2008: 42.1pp · 2024: 50.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+50.6 2020: D+49.2 2016: D+42.1 2012: D+39.8 2008: D+42.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -276.59%
• Current HPI: 389.7215
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.22%
• Metro: Ithaca, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Contingent — IBRMLS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $71,500 IBRMLS