319 Merrill Ave · Calumet City, IL 60409

$94,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,058 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1961 Est $156k · 39% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Exciting opportunity! This frame Ranch offers 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, full basement and a 2-car detached garage! This property is waiting for the right owner to unlock its full potential and turn it into a stunning home. Conveniently located near shopping and transportation, this is ideal for a first-time buyer ready to transform it into a fabulous living space or an investor looking to add to their rental portfolio.

Key facts

• Near shopping
• Full basement
• Near transportation

Tags

• FULL BASEMENT
• DETACHED GARAGE
• NEAR SHOPPING
• NEAR TRANSPORTATION

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No master association fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (2 garage spaces, 2 parking spaces total)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family home; One-story
• Construction: Frame construction; Built 61–70 years ago; Built before 1978
• Exterior features: Lot less than 0.25 acre; Lot dimensions: 0.14

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (13 x 13)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on main level) — Master: 13 x 12 with half bath; Bedroom: 12 x 11; Bedroom: 12 x 10
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom (located off master)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Partially finished full basement; 5 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $892 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.6% vs local median 8.2% in Calumet City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#330 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, crime D-.
• Thornton Twp Hsd 205 (suburban): math 7% / reading 8% proficiency, ranked #594 of 620 in IL (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.2%/yr); 198 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $656 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.2% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $92,053 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.28%
• DSCR: 2.79
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $155,526
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
427 Clyde Ave	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,025 (-3%)	3mo	$190,000	$185	80
283 Paxton Ave	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,004 (-5%)	5mo	$80,000	$80	79
370 Clyde Ave	0.16mi	3/2.0	973 (-8%)	0mo	$105,000	$108	75
405 Clyde Ave	0.21mi	3/1.0	973 (-8%)	3mo	$110,000	$113	74
295 Chappel Ave	0.14mi	3/2.0	979 (-8%)	5mo	$240,000	$245	73
317 Madison Ave	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,152 (+9%)	3mo	$67,200	$58	72
14738 Blackstone Ave	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,017 (-4%)	1mo	$150,000	$147	65
14610 Blackstone Ave	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,017 (-4%)	1mo	$150,000	$147	65
14642 Dorchester Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,013 (-4%)	1mo	$170,000	$168	59
1429 Kasten Dr	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,123 (+6%)	4mo	$119,000	$106	56
14613 Dante Ave	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,112 (+5%)	5mo	$95,000	$85	56
14441 Dante Ave	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,210 (+14%)	6mo	$204,000	$169	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $47,906
• Equity at exit: $14,150

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.39×
• Total profit: $143,222
• Equity at exit: $8,205

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60409

• Home prices YoY: -27.6%
• Rents YoY: 6.2%
• Active inventory: 198
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,959 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,424/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $892

Break-even live

Break-even rent $830

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $958	-5% $925	+0% $892	+5% $859	+10% $826
Rent	-10% $737	-5% $815	+0% $892	+5% $969	+10% $1,047
Rate	-1.0pp $940	-0.5pp $916	base $892	+0.5pp $867	+1.0pp $842

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1860 State St Calumet City, IL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	18d	1	0.16mi
405 Clyde Ave Calumet City, IL	3.0	1.0	973	$2,300	$2.36	1d	1	0.20mi
409 Madison Ave Unit 2 Calumet City, IL	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,795	$1.50	4d	1	0.31mi
250 Yates Ave Unit 1616 Dolton 1E Calumet City, IL	2.0	1.0	875	$1,465	$1.67	8d	1	0.33mi
101 Oglesby Ave Calumet City, IL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	22d	1	0.38mi
101 Oglesby Ave Calumet City, IL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	12d	1	0.38mi
101 Oglesby Ave Calumet City, IL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	20d	1	0.38mi
1601 Downs Dr Unit 3S Calumet City, IL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,400	$1.87	25d	1	0.39mi
14518 S Hoxie Ave Chicago, IL	3.0	1.5	1128	$2,450	$2.17	1d	1	0.53mi
460 Hoxie Ave Unit R Calumet City, IL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,650	$2.06	8d	1	0.58mi
460 Hoxie Ave Unit R Calumet City, IL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,650	$2.06	14d	1	0.58mi
14738 Blackstone Ave Dolton, IL	3.0	1.0	1017	$2,400	$2.36	10d	1	0.58mi
14610 Blackstone Ave Dolton, IL	3.0	1.0	1017	$2,400	$2.36	6d	1	0.59mi
14501 Torrence Ave Unit 3A Burnham, IL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,250	$1.56	10d	1	0.62mi
14501 S Torrence Ave Chicago, IL	1.0–2.0	1.0	737	$1,250	$1.69	13d	2	0.62mi
14716 Dorchester Ave Dolton, IL	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,800	$2.24	19d	1	0.70mi
660 Clyde Ave Calumet City, IL	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,750	$1.25	3d	1	0.80mi
659 Paxton Ave Calumet City, IL	3.0	2.0	1255	$2,461	$1.96	10d	1	0.81mi
2605 E Martha Pl Chicago, IL	2.0	2.0	1353	$1,860	$1.37	22d	1	0.85mi
14433 Woodlawn Ave Dolton, IL	4.0	2.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	19d	1	0.97mi
671 Saginaw Ave Calumet City, IL	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,276	$1.82	10d	1	1.04mi
2790 E State St Apt 2E Burnham, IL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,695	$1.54	25d	1	1.07mi
15231 Hastings Dr Dolton, IL	4.0	1.5	1487	$2,146	$1.44	8d	1	1.12mi
14500 Cottage Grove Ave Unit 3 Dolton, IL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,475	$1.48	25d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-17
   listed $94,900 Active
2. 1998-08-21
   soldstatus $86,000
3. 1984-08-08
   soldstatus $50,000
4. 1984-06-01
   soldstatus $49,750

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,510
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$1,424
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,881
• − Management: −$1,881
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable income: $9,774
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,346
• After-tax cash flow: $8,357/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thornton Twp Hsd 205
• NCES district ID: 1738970
• Math proficiency: 7% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 8% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,392
• Composite: 6.92/100
• National rank: #9976
• State rank: #594 of 620 in IL

Livability — Calumet City

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #6552

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Calumet City, IL
• County: Cook County · 4,486,803 people
• City population: 35,100
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 35,100
• Household income: $55,369
• Rent vs Own: 44.3% rent · 55.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2415.0

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 74% Hispanic / Latino 15% White 7% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.01%
• Current HPI: 197.2137
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.17%
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+90.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $94,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-08-21 Sold (Public Records) $86,000 Public Records
• 1984-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 1984-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $49,750 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2023): $6,047 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.