Harvest Ridge 1191 Plan · Elgin, TX 78621

$207,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,191 sqft · SingleFamily · 1003 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Harvest Ridge, Elgin's most prestigious and award-winning master-planned community, where thoughtful design and true community spirit come together. With new homes starting in the $180s and options ranging from 2 to 5 bedrooms, there’s something here for every stage of life. Built around the idea that a neighborhood should be more than just a place to live, Harvest Ridge is designed to foster connection-with inviting front porches that encourage conversation, and a wide range of amenities that bring people together. Spend your days enjoying the resort-style pool, fishing ponds, playscapes, event lawns, food trucks, coffee bar, basketball and sports fields, and more. A full-time Lifestyle Director ensures there's always something happening, from seasonal festivals to family movie nights. Located just east of Austin near Highway 290, and now home to a brand-new onsite elementary school, Harvest Ridge offers the perfect balance of small-town charm and modern convenience. It's more than a neighborhood-it's a community built for belonging.

Key facts

• Listed 1002 days

🏗️ New construction. The $207,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $307,928.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $208k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-612 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (7.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Neidig El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 599 students, 79% FRL); Elgin Middle (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 780 students, 82% FRL); Elgin H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,672 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 978 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 1003 days — a 12% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $183,031 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 1003 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.52%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $307,928
• List price: $207,990
• Delta: -32.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
135 Daylily Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,191 (0%)	1mo	$211,840	$178	78
143 Daylily Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,191 (0%)	3mo	$209,990	$176	76
215 Cider Creek Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,191 (0%)	0mo	$211,840	$178	76
104 Summer Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,230 (+3%)	2mo	$241,770	$197	73
141 Summer Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,326 (+11%)	0mo	$223,750	$169	62
149 Daylily Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,326 (+11%)	3mo	$223,750	$169	58
117 Summer Dr	0.40mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,088 (-9%)	3mo	$206,110	$189	57
120 Shenandoah Trl	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,303 (+9%)	1mo	$220,000	$169	57
123 Daylily Dr	0.45mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,072 (-10%)	1mo	$199,990	$187	54
14504 Wahlbergs Way	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,305 (+10%)	1mo	$272,900	$209	51
18420 Stellers Sea St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,076 (-10%)	3mo	$252,900	$235	50
14624 Wahlbergs Way	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,305 (+10%)	3mo	$269,900	$207	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $128,966
• Equity at exit: $277,406

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.77×
• Total profit: $410,984
• Equity at exit: $598,236

Cash invested: $86,220 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 62 active · 20 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.5 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $246,512 ($182/sqft)
• Median days on market: 72 d
• This list price: 16% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +42.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 978
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,919 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,615
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$385 /mo · $4,619/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $-612

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,694

Max offer price $219,321

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-400	-5% $-506	+0% $-612	+5% $-719	+10% $-825
Rent	-10% $-764	-5% $-688	+0% $-612	+5% $-537	+10% $-461
Rate	-1.0pp $-457	-0.5pp $-534	base $-612	+0.5pp $-692	+1.0pp $-773

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,982
• Closing costs: $9,238
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
116 Appleberry Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1363	$1,750	$1.28	18d	1	0.12mi
12201 Token Trl Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,795	$1.20	21d	1	0.17mi
109 Tillage Rd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,690	$1.27	21d	1	0.18mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	93d	1	0.28mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,085	$1.18	9d	1	0.35mi
13817 County Line Rd Elgin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	985	$1,699	$1.72	9d	11	0.44mi
158 Daylily Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1419	$1,900	$1.34	9d	1	0.45mi
14508 Wahlbergs Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	60d	1	0.70mi
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	64d	1	0.71mi
18316 Stellers Sea St Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	68d	1	0.76mi
18200 Papuan Cv Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,900	$1.36	52d	1	0.80mi
18333 Willow Sage Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,700	$1.31	18d	1	1.38mi
102 Schuylerville Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,800	$1.22	93d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $207,990 Active 1003 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $207,990 Active 1001 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $207,990 Active 1000 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $207,990 Active 999 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $207,990 Active 998 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $207,990 Active 995 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $207,990 Active 993 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $207,990 Active 992 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $207,990 Active 990 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $207,990 Active 988 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $207,990 Active 987 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $207,990 Active 986 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $207,990 Active 985 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $207,990 Active 984 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $207,990 Active 982 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $207,990 Active 981 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $207,990 Active 980 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $207,990 Active 979 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $207,990 Active 978 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $207,990 Active 977 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $207,990 Active 976 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $207,990 Active 975 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $207,990 Active 974 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $207,990 Active 973 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $207,990 Active 971 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $207,990 Active 970 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $207,990 Active 969 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $207,990 Active 967 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $207,990 Active 966 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $207,990 Active 965 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $207,990 Active 964 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $207,990 Active 963 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $207,990 Active 962 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $207,990 Active 961 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $207,990 Active 960 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $207,990 Active 958 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $207,990 Active 956 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $207,990 Active 955 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $207,990 Active 952 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $207,990 Active 951 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $207,990 Active 950 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $207,990 Active 949 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $207,990 Active 947 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $207,990 Active 943 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $207,990 Active 942 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $207,990 Active 941 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $207,990 Active 938 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $207,990 Active 937 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $207,990 Active 936 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $207,990 Active 935 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,023
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,249
• − Property taxes: −$4,619
• − Insurance: −$1,540
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,842
• − Management: −$1,842
• − Depreciation: −$8,958
• Taxable loss: −$13,026
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,126
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,222/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It is move-in ready and has the potential for significant value increases through cosmetic updates and landscaping improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and add value to the home. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers. ↑
• Both Interior updates — Updating the interior can make the home more appealing and increase its value. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Updating these spaces can increase the home's value and attract more buyers. ↑
• Rental HVAC and mechanical system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract renters and reduce utility costs. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 20/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Elgin El F TX #4,180/4,322 Nat'l #37,719/41,679 Middle Elgin Middle F TX #1,327/1,662 Nat'l #11,007/14,009 High Elgin H S F TX #1,264/1,632 Nat'l #12,478/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 94,260 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-22.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $207,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-26 Price Changed $237,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-25 Price Changed $247,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-17 Price Changed $257,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-10 Price Changed $237,990 Zillow
• 2024-02-22 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-02-21 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-02-01 Price Changed $247,990 Zillow
• 2023-11-08 Listed $267,990 Zillow