45 Route 5A · Burke, VT 05851

$90,000

11 bd · 3.5 ba · 4,457 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 158 Days on market

Built 1880 0.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Ready for your next Investment project? Located in the heart of West Burke Village, this 3 unit building offers large 3 and 4 bedroom units, 4 baths, 2 car garage, level lot, public sewer and drilled well. Close to skiing, snowmobiling, lakes, Kingdom Trails and all that the Northeast Kingdom offers.

Key facts

• Public sewer
• Close to lakes
• Close to skiing

Tags

• LARGE 3 AND 4 BEDROOM UNITS
• PUBLIC SEWER
• DRILLED WELL
• CLOSE TO SKIING
• CLOSE TO SNOWMOBILING
• CLOSE TO LAKES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Easements on the property; Deed and plot plan documents available

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage capacity
• Utilities: Public sewer; Drilled well water source; Electric service with circuit breaker(s), combo, and fuses; Cable available; DSL internet available; LP/bottle gas available
• Home design: Apartment building; Existing construction; Gray exterior with clapboard siding; Built in 1880
• Construction: Clapboard exterior; Metal roof; Foundation information not specified
• Exterior features: Level lot; Water view of the Sutton River; River frontage; Gravel driveway; Paved, public road frontage (approx. 177 feet)

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three 3-bedroom units (Unit 1 on level 1; Unit 2 on level 2); One 4-bedroom unit (Unit 3 on level 2)
• Bathrooms: Four full bathrooms across the building (Unit 1: 1 bath; Unit 2: 1 bath; Unit 3: 2 baths)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Basement present with interior access; Full, unfinished basement with bulkhead access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 11-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $953 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade A — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Zoned schools: Burke Town School (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #72 of 192 statewide, top 42%, 189 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Caledonia County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Caledonia County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.04%
• DSCR: 3.14
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 59.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.36×
• Total profit: $109,835
• Equity at exit: $81,079

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.3%
• Equity multiple: 11.95×
• Total profit: $275,914
• Equity at exit: $174,850

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05851

• Home prices YoY: 9.6%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,146 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$177 /mo · $2,126/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $953

Break-even live

Break-even rent $940

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,004	-5% $979	+0% $953	+5% $928	+10% $902
Rent	-10% $784	-5% $868	+0% $953	+5% $1,038	+10% $1,123
Rate	-1.0pp $999	-0.5pp $976	base $953	+0.5pp $930	+1.0pp $906

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $90,000 Active 158 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   status $90,000 Active 156 DOM
3. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
4. 2025-11-18
   listed $90,000 Active
5. 2023-11-13
   soldstatus $95,000
6. 2016-06-08
   price $39,900
7. 2016-05-17
   price $49,900
8. 2016-04-01
   price $59,900
9. 2016-03-08
   price $60,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,126 · $177/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,126 · $177/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,754
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$2,126
• − Insurance: −$1,116
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,060
• − Management: −$2,060
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $10,731
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,575
• After-tax cash flow: $8,864/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Burke

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Burke, VT
• Population (ZIP): 5,972

Population outlook (Caledonia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,828 people
• By 2030: 28,820 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 26,262 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 23,780 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 18,516 · -37.9%
• By 2100: 13,647 · -54.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Slovak 6% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caledonia

• 2024 margin: D (+12.4) · D 54.5% · R 42.0% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.8pp toward R · 2008: 23.3pp · 2024: 12.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.4 2020: D+15.2 2016: D+7.0 2012: D+22.9 2008: D+23.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.00%
• Current HPI: 319.1832
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+47.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2025-11-18 Listed $90,000 PrimeMLS
• 2023-11-13 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2016-06-08 Price Changed $39,900 PrimeMLS
• 2016-05-17 Price Changed $49,900 PrimeMLS
• 2016-04-01 Price Changed $59,900 PrimeMLS
• 2016-03-08 Price Changed $60,900 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

-2.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,126 · +12.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.