254 Poe Pkwy · Castroville, TX 78009

$602,990

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,774 sqft · SingleFamily · 132 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 0.40 ac lot $217/sqft · 8% below area Est $654k · 8% under $13/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Embrace one-level living at its finest with The Oxford's lovely charming exterior. Just inside its door, you'll discover an elegant dining room and flex room leading you into its open floor plan. The spacious family room/gourmet kitchen layout is perfect for entertaining, and the kitchen offers more than enough counterspace. Discover the massive primary suite, complete with a stunning sitting area in the isolated bedroom. Three more bedrooms line the other side of the house, and the covered patio is a must-see! Make it your own with The Oxford's flexible floor plan.

Key facts

• Elegant dining room
• Open floor plan
• One-level living

Tags

• ONE-LEVEL LIVING
• ELEGANT DINING ROOM
• FLEX ROOM
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• GOURMET KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $603k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-266 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $565k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $495k (17.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $495k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.9% in Castroville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#212 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Potranco El (math 50% / reading 51%, grade D+, #833 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 847 students, 47% FRL); Medina Valley Middle (math 47% / reading 49%, grade C-, #400 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 1,029 students, 62% FRL); Medina Valley H S (math 34% / reading 55%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,147 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 440 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($531k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $495,493 (17.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.89%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $653,514
• List price: $602,990
• Delta: -7.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
165 Poe Pkwy	0.11mi	4/3.5	2,849 (+3%)	5mo	$599,900	$211	87
145 Mary Ella Dr	0.47mi	4/3.0	2,613 (-6%)	0mo	$625,000	$239	66
136 Mason Ln	0.49mi	4/3.5	2,916 (+5%)	3mo	$499,990	$171	66
267 Sweet Rose	0.33mi	4/3.5	3,094 (+12%)	1mo	$549,000	$177	65
689 Lilly Blf	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,751 (-1%)	2mo	$694,000	$252	64
186 Kari Dr	0.62mi	4/3.5	2,916 (+5%)	3mo	$569,990	$195	60
346 Lily Pass	0.62mi	4/3.5	2,916 (+5%)	4mo	$565,990	$194	59
280 Sittre Dr	0.53mi	4/3.5	3,003 (+8%)	5mo	$545,000	$181	58
269 Big Bnd	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,671 (-4%)	2mo	$573,000	$215	56
212 Big Bnd	0.63mi	4/3.0	3,094 (+12%)	4mo	$478,400	$155	46
243 Wisteria Vw	0.72mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,560 (-8%)	2mo	$529,900	$207	45
223 Azalea Aly	0.74mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,497 (-10%)	4mo	$519,900	$208	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-114,552
• Equity at exit: $89,908

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-121,206
• Equity at exit: $52,136

Cash invested: $168,837 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78009

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Active inventory: 440
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,955 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,162
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$754 /mo · $9,045/yr
• Insurance: −$251
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,041
• Net cashflow: $-266

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,291

Max offer price $564,539

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $151	-5% $-57	+0% $-266	+5% $-474	+10% $-682
Rent	-10% $-657	-5% $-461	+0% $-266	+5% $-70	+10% $126
Rate	-1.0pp $38	-0.5pp $-112	base $-266	+0.5pp $-422	+1.0pp $-581

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $150,748
• Closing costs: $18,090
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
268 Englewood Ln Castroville, TX	5.0	4.5	4022	$7,200	$1.79	6d	1	0.39mi
270 Lilly Blf Castroville, TX	4.0	3.0	2958	$3,600	$1.22	45d	1	0.55mi
264 Broken Antler San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2299	$1,997	$0.87	14d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $602,990 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $602,990 Active 129 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $602,990 Active 128 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $602,990 Active 127 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $602,990 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $602,990 Active 124 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $602,990 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $602,990 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $602,990 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $602,990 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $602,990 Active 114 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $602,990 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $602,990 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $602,990 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-03-31
    price $602,990 572-char remark

    Show marketing remark (575 chars)

    Embrace one-level living at its finest with The Oxford's lovely charming exterior. Just inside its door, you'll discover an elegant dining room and flex room leading you into its open floor plan. The spacious family room/gourmet kitchen layout is perfect for entertaining, and the kitchen offers more than enough counterspace. Discover the massive primary suite, complete with a stunning sitting area in the isolated bedroom. Three more bedrooms line the other side of the house, and the covered patio is a must-see! Make it your own with The Oxford's flexible floor plan.

16. 2026-03-31
    price $602,990 575-char remark

    Show marketing remark (575 chars)

    Embrace one-level living at its finest with The Oxford's lovely charming exterior. Just inside its door, you'll discover an elegant dining room and flex room leading you into its open floor plan. The spacious family room/gourmet kitchen layout is perfect for entertaining, and the kitchen offers more than enough counterspace. Discover the massive primary suite, complete with a stunning sitting area in the isolated bedroom. Three more bedrooms line the other side of the house, and the covered patio is a must-see! Make it your own with The Oxford's flexible floor plan.

17. 2026-02-13
    listed $595,990 Active 572-char remark

    Show marketing remark (572 chars)

    Embrace one-level living at its finest with The Oxford's lovely charming exterior. Just inside its door, you'll discover an elegant dining room and flex room leading you into its open floor plan. The spacious family room/gourmet kitchen layout is perfect for entertaining, and the kitchen offers more than enough counterspace. Discover the massive primary suite, complete with a stunning sitting area in the isolated bedroom. Three more bedrooms line the other side of the house, and the covered patio is a must-see! Make it your own with The Oxford's flexible floor plan.

18. 2026-02-09
    listed $595,990 New 575-char remark

    Show marketing remark (575 chars)

    Embrace one-level living at its finest with The Oxford's lovely charming exterior. Just inside its door, you'll discover an elegant dining room and flex room leading you into its open floor plan. The spacious family room/gourmet kitchen layout is perfect for entertaining, and the kitchen offers more than enough counterspace. Discover the massive primary suite, complete with a stunning sitting area in the isolated bedroom. Three more bedrooms line the other side of the house, and the covered patio is a must-see! Make it your own with The Oxford's flexible floor plan.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $59,459
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,777
• − Property taxes: −$9,045
• − Insurance: −$3,015
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,757
• − Management: −$4,757
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$17,542
• Taxable loss: −$13,588
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,261
• After-tax cash flow: $72/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home offers a good condition with a spacious floor plan and well-maintained exterior. A fresh coat of paint and some minor maintenance can significantly boost its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Clean and maintain gutters — Clean gutters prevent water damage and improve the home's overall appearance.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Clean and maintain gutters — Clean gutters prevent water damage and improve the home's overall appearance. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Medina Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830060
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,596
• Composite: 44.2/100
• National rank: #2851
• State rank: #148 of 826 in TX

Livability — Castroville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #5267

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,494

Population outlook (Medina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,332 people
• By 2030: 57,250 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 62,563 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 67,386 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 79,538 · +46.4%
• By 2100: 84,624 · +55.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 37% Two or more races 29% Black 4% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Albanian 6% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Medina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 28.2% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.81%
• Current HPI: 212.1813
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $602,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $602,990 LERA
• 2026-02-13 Listed $595,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-09 Listed $595,990 LERA