51 Enchanted Valley Rd · East Durham, NY 12423

$230,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,177 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1971 0.68 ac lot Est $238k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away among the pines and surrounded by the natural beauty of the Northern Catskills and Hudson Valley, this adorable 2 bedroom with a flex room/office, 2-bath home offers the perfect blend of privacy and convenience. The EIK has plenty of room for center island and dining table and opens directly to the living room; perfect for entertaining. The sliding glass doors off the living room leads out to the deck, where the peaceful sounds of Throp Creek below create a truly relaxing setting. Situated on just under one acre, the property provides room to unwind while remaining close to shopping, dining, skiing, hiking, and all the area has to offer. Property is 1 mile from Zoom Flume Water

Key facts

• Sliding glass doors
• Deck
• One acre

Tags

• SLIDING GLASS DOORS
• DECK
• ONE ACRE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank; 200+ amp electric service
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Metal roof; Built on a 0.68-acre lot
• Exterior features: Private yard; Deck; Shed(s); Wooded lot with many trees; Private maintained road; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master downstairs
• Flooring: Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Electric heating; Ceiling fans for cooling
• Interior features: Master bedroom on the ground floor; ENERGY STAR qualified windows

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $491 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $223k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 2.9% in East Durham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cairo-Durham Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #470 of 590 in NY (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 97 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Greene County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $230k implies a 171% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $223,100 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.14%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $237,754
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
128 Stone Bridge Rd	0.33mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,152 (-2%)	3mo	$50,000	$43	74
463 Golden Hill Rd	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,204 (+2%)	18mo	$242,700	$202	44
320 Shady Glen Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+14%)	2mo	$355,000	$264	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.07% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $59,755
• Equity at exit: $104,349

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.61×
• Total profit: $167,774
• Equity at exit: $161,541

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12423

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,240/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $491

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,779

Max offer price $230,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $621	-5% $556	+0% $491	+5% $426	+10% $360
Rent	-10% $301	-5% $396	+0% $491	+5% $585	+10% $680
Rate	-1.0pp $606	-0.5pp $549	base $491	+0.5pp $431	+1.0pp $370

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
515 Brown Rd East Durham, NY	3.0	1.0	960	$2,400	$2.50	24d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $230,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $230,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $230,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,000 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   statusdays on market $230,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $230,000 Active Under Contract 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $230,000 Active Under Contract 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $230,000 Active Under Contract 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $230,000 Active Under Contract 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $230,000 Active Under Contract 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $230,000 Active Under Contract 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $230,000 Active Under Contract 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $230,000 Active Under Contract 16 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $230,000 Active Under Contract 15 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    statusdays on market $230,000 Active Under Contract 14 DOM
16. 2026-05-16
    listed $230,000 Active
17. 2011-04-20
    soldstatus $85,000
18. 2007-07-26
    soldstatus $123,800
19. 2004-10-28
    soldstatus $88,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,240 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,564 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,323/yr (+$110/mo · 106.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$1,240
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,304
• − Management: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable income: $2,227
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$535
• After-tax cash flow: $5,353/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cairo-Durham Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606160
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $46,192
• Composite: 37.84/100
• National rank: #4330
• State rank: #470 of 590 in NY

Livability — East Durham

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,033
• Population (ZIP): 1,033

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,963 people
• By 2030: 43,126 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 38,756 · -13.8%
• By 2050: 34,913 · -22.4%
• By 2075: 28,156 · -37.4%
• By 2100: 22,296 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Two or more races 32% Hispanic / Latino 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 12% Italian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 41.5% · R 58.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+15.6 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.07%
• Current HPI: 412.075
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+161.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $230,000 HVCRMLS
• 2011-04-20 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2007-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $123,800 Public Records
• 2004-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $88,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,240 · -5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.