83 Smithsonian St · Girard, OH 44420

$69,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,016 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1920 5,401 sqft lot $69/sqft · 43% below area Est $122k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits with this 2-bedroom, 1-bath home featuring plenty of potential for investors or buyers looking for their next flip project. Upstairs offers two comfortable bedrooms and a full bathroom with a bathtub. The main level includes a kitchen, living room, dining room, and an additional spare room that could easily serve as a home office or possible third bedroom. Outside, you’ll find a small backyard perfect for low-maintenance outdoor space. Convenient layout and endless possibilities make this property a great investment

Key facts

• 5,401 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1920

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Above-grade finished area reported as 1,016 (source: Realist)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water service; Public sewer service
• Home design: Two-story home; Asphalt roof; Aluminum siding
• Construction: Built with aluminum siding; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Public water; Public sewer; Lot recorded from public records

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the second floor
• Flooring: Carpet in one first-floor room; Wood flooring in family room; Laminate flooring in kitchen, dining room, and both bedrooms; Linoleum flooring in bathroom
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (second floor)
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Ceiling fans for cooling
• Interior features: Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $602 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.6% vs local median 7.0% in Girard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#605 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools A-; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Girard City School District (suburban): math 38% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #458 of 656 in OH (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 129 units permitted in Trumbull County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Trumbull County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $67,803 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.94% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.90%
• DSCR: 2.64
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $121,860
• List price: $69,900
• Delta: -42.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1085 North Ave	0.19mi	3/1.0	936 (-8%)	8mo	$119,000	$127	69
843 Lawrence Ave	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,098 (+8%)	7mo	$125,000	$114	67
437 Hazel St	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,080 (+6%)	10mo	$170,000	$157	52
424 Powers Ave	0.51mi	3/1.5	912 (-10%)	9mo	$105,000	$115	52
1018 N State St	0.20mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,148 (+13%)	13mo	$125,000	$109	51
445 Powers Ave	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	912 (-10%)	2mo	$154,500	$169	48
451 Powers Ave	0.57mi	3/1.0	912 (-10%)	8mo	$75,000	$82	48
233 E Main St	0.74mi	3/1.5	1,122 (+10%)	1mo	$115,000	$102	48
565 Powers Ave	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,115 (+10%)	14mo	$169,900	$152	40
1061 N Ward Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,160 (+14%)	14mo	$210,600	$182	37
324 Williams Ct	0.48mi	4/1.0 (+1)	871 (-14%)	12mo	$66,000	$76	37
863 Shannon Rd	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,092 (+8%)	14mo	$130,000	$119	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $27,013
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.73×
• Total profit: $72,926
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44420

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,357 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $893/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $602

Break-even live

Break-even rent $595

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1079 North Ave Girard, OH	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,600	$1.09	13d	1	0.17mi
848 Lawrence Ave Girard, OH	3.0	1.0	950	$1,400	$1.47	13d	1	0.20mi
833 Lawrence Ave Girard, OH	4.0	1.0	1312	$1,450	$1.11	13d	1	0.23mi
103 Hazel St Girard, OH	2.0	1.5	1152	$1,100	$0.95	13d	1	0.28mi
820 Lincoln Ave Girard, OH	2.0	1.0	768	$1,200	$1.56	44d	1	0.34mi
135 E Broadway Ave Girard, OH	2.0	1.0	1120	$995	$0.89	13d	1	0.53mi
711 N Highland Ave Unit 711-01 Girard, OH	2.0	1.0	780	$795	$1.02	13d	1	0.57mi
625 Churchill Rd Girard, OH	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	13d	1	0.73mi
607 E Kline St Unit A Girard, OH	2.0	1.0	1432	$1,250	$0.87	44d	1	0.90mi
296 E Howard St Girard, OH	3.0	2.0	1253	$1,800	$1.44	44d	1	1.00mi
1046 Leslie Ln Girard, OH	3.0	1.5	936	$1,400	$1.50	21d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $69,900 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,900 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,900 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $69,900 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,900 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $69,900 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,900 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    price $69,900 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,900 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 23 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $79,900 Active 22 DOM
18. 2026-05-08
    listed $79,900 Active 546-char remark
19. 2008-12-07
    historical
20. 2008-07-10
    historical
21. 2008-06-06
    listed $54,900
22. 2008-01-10
    listed $59,900
23. 2006-08-31
    historical
24. 2006-02-02
    listed $59,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $893 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $992 · $83/mo
• Expected delta: +$99/yr (+$8/mo · 11.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,282
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$893
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,303
• − Management: −$1,303
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $6,485
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,556
• After-tax cash flow: $5,665/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Girard City School District
• NCES district ID: 3904406
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -43.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $40,293
• Composite: 41.35/100
• National rank: #3496
• State rank: #458 of 656 in OH

Livability — Girard

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #605
• US rank: #10378

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Girard, OH
• County: Trumbull County · 61,158 people
• City population: 15,293
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,293
• Household income: $61,707
• Rent vs Own: 25.6% rent · 74.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 351.0

Population outlook (Trumbull County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 191,696 people
• By 2030: 184,015 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 166,810 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 149,857 · -21.8%
• By 2075: 115,769 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 83,617 · -56.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Subsaharan African 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Trumbull

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.2% · R 58.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+6.4 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.72%
• Current HPI: 221.5618
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+16.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $69,900 MLSNOW
• 2026-05-08 Listed $79,900 MLSNOW
• 2008-12-07 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2008-07-10 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2008-06-06 Listed $54,900 MLSNOW
• 2008-01-10 Listed $59,900 MLSNOW
• 2006-08-31 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2006-02-02 Listed $59,900 MLSNOW

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $893 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.