5124 Darlington Rd · Holiday, FL 34690

$140,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 190 Days on market

Built 1973 4,250 sqft lot Est $137k · at est. $16/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +6.6/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome Home to 5124 Darlington Rd, the lowest-priced home for sale in Buena Vista Manor, offering incredible value with major updates throughout, full 1-car garage and fully fenced in backyard— standout features in this sought-after 55+ community. This 2 Bedroom (Both with Walk-In Closets), 2 Full Bathrooms home has been beautifully renovated in 2021: New Kitchen Cabinets, Granite Countertops, and Stainless Steel Appliances, New bathroom vanities, showers, and toilets, New AC, New Floors, and New garage door! Brand New Floors in the Bedrooms and New Doors! The home also has newer windows! Brand New Vinyl Siding last year definitely upgrades the curb appeal of the home, alongside plen

Key facts

• Butterfly garden
• New kitchen cabinets
• Granite countertops

Tags

• FULLY FENCED IN BACKYARD
• BUTTERFLY GARDEN
• NEW KITCHEN CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• NEW BATHROOM VANITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total acreage less than 1/4 acre (~0.1 acre); Living area reported as 960 sq ft; building area reported as 1,323 sq ft
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (annual fee $200; approximately $16.67/month); Association requires approval; Association amenities include recreation facilities; Association fee covers grounds maintenance and recreational facilities; Community clubhouse; Deed restrictions; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs; weight limit ~25 lbs; number/size limits apply)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Electricity available and connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (double wide); Single-story; North-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace and slab foundation; Built as double wide mobile home
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Asphalt-paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Linoleum; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $469 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 4.7% in Holiday — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#623 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 131 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 190 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $94k; 50% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 190 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.37%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $137,280
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2331 Baron Dr	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (0%)	1mo	$70,000	$73	88
2402 Prestige Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,012 (+5%)	9mo	$145,000	$143	78
3115 Bixler Ct	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (0%)	2mo	$87,000	$91	60
1850 Arcadia Rd	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	933 (-3%)	12mo	$170,000	$182	52
1850 Mary Ln	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (+10%)	1mo	$114,000	$108	49
3035 Buckner Ct	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (+10%)	18mo	$193,000	$183	34
4920 Sherrell Dr	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	864 (-10%)	18mo	$127,000	$147	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $2,074
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $20,451
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34690

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,750 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,258/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$16
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $469

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,156

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2552 Chancery Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	816	$1,595	$1.95	24d	1	0.28mi
2509 Sweetwood Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	988	$1,650	$1.67	18d	1	0.33mi
4823 Longwood Ave Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1122	$1,800	$1.60	5d	1	0.36mi
2610 Templewood Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	5d	1	0.41mi
4723 Aegean Ave Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,636	$1.64	5d	1	0.47mi
5338 Nancy Ln Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,430	$1.66	24d	1	0.49mi
2122 Ranchita Trl Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	648	$1,399	$2.16	24d	1	0.61mi
3029 Corona Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	894	$1,950	$2.18	5d	1	0.69mi
5606 Mirada Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,550	$1.79	14d	1	0.71mi
5232 Sparrow Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	976	$1,975	$2.02	24d	1	0.78mi
4313 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	825	$1,300	$1.58	14d	1	0.79mi
4356 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,350	$1.64	24d	1	0.83mi
4354 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit F Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,500	$1.82	24d	1	0.85mi
4365 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,400	$1.70	24d	1	0.88mi
4348 Plaza Dr Holiday, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	860	$1,499	$1.74	2d	9	0.90mi
4205 Jordana Way Holiday, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$1,633	$1.59	2d	13	0.93mi
2132 Kepner Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	920	$1,295	$1.41	20d	1	0.94mi
4326 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit 14E Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	768	$2,000	$2.60	24d	1	0.95mi
1552 Alert St Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	956	$2,100	$2.20	5d	1	0.96mi
4351 Tahitian Gardens Cir Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,150	$1.39	24d	1	0.97mi
4334 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	768	$1,450	$1.89	24d	1	1.02mi
4337 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit F Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	768	$1,500	$1.95	24d	1	1.02mi
3433 Monticello St Holiday, FL	3.0	1.5	960	$1,650	$1.72	24d	1	1.05mi
1551 Swordbill Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	784	$1,450	$1.85	24d	1	1.06mi
1551 Swordbill Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	784	$1,450	$1.85	11d	1	1.06mi
3511 Cambridge St New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	936	$2,100	$2.24	5d	1	1.07mi
5723 Silver Spur Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	784	$1,450	$1.85	24d	1	1.08mi
2051 Pleasure Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,200	$1.67	24d	1	1.10mi
4836 Flora Ave Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1113	$1,445	$1.30	24d	1	1.27mi
5913 Appletree Rd Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1028	$2,300	$2.24	18d	1	1.30mi
1130 Powersong St Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,800	$2.08	24d	1	1.37mi
1130 Powersong St Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,800	$2.08	14d	1	1.37mi
3742 Darlington Rd Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	936	$1,800	$1.92	24d	1	1.39mi
3749 Beechwood Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1012	$1,673	$1.65	12d	1	1.39mi
3439 Clydesdale Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	968	$1,395	$1.44	5d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $16 · $192/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 190 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 189 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 188 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 187 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 185 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 181 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 180 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $140,000 Active 179 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $140,000 Active 176 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 175 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 174 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 173 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 172 DOM
14. 2025-12-10
    listed $140,000 Active
15. 2022-03-28
    soldstatus $93,500
16. 2021-07-03
    status Active
17. 2021-06-27
    status Pending
18. 2021-06-10
    price $94,900
19. 2021-05-21
    listed $98,999 Active
20. 2021-05-11
    soldstatus $30,000
21. 2004-05-10
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,258 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,258 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,004
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$1,258
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,680
• − Management: −$1,680
• − HOA: −$192
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $3,578
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$859
• After-tax cash flow: $4,774/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Holiday

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #623
• US rank: #12124

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holiday, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 33,730
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,498
• Household income: $49,401
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 625.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 11% Black 5% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 16% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.40%
• Current HPI: 316.5846
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.49%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+250.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-10 Listed $140,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $93,500 Public Records
• 2021-07-03 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-10 Price Changed $94,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-21 Listed $98,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2004-05-10 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,258 · +8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.