32301 E Trimmer Springs Rd #121 · Squaw Valley, CA 93657

$35,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 650 sqft · Manufactured · 342 Days on market

Built 1960 $54/sqft · 18% above area Est $30k · 18% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss this opportunity to own a cozy mobile home with stunning lake views of Pine Flat Lake! This charming 2-bedroom home is the perfect canvas for your vision. While it needs some TLC, it offers endless potential as a peaceful retreat, for part time or full-time residence.Enjoy your morning coffee or evening sunsets with an unobstructed view of the lake right from your front porch. In the Cove Island Resort Park

Key facts

• Unobstructed view
• Lake views
• Front porch

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS
• UNOBSTRUCTED VIEW
• FRONT PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $31k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 46.1% vs local median 3.7% in Squaw Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#583 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sierra Unified (rural): math 31% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #212 of 517 in CA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 342 days — a 12% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $30,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 342 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 46.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 142.24%
• DSCR: 7.33
• GRM: 1.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $29,555
• List price: $35,000
• Delta: 18.42%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.97×
• Total profit: $68,339
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.80×
• Total profit: $154,883
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93657

• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 1.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,777 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$44 /mo · $525/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $1,162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $306

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 30%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $35,000 Active 342 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $35,000 Active 341 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $35,000 Active 340 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $35,000 Active 339 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $35,000 Active 337 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $35,000 Active 336 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $35,000 Active 334 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $35,000 Active 333 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $35,000 Active 332 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $35,000 Active 331 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $35,000 Active 328 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $35,000 Active 327 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $35,000 Active 326 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 325 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 324 DOM
16. 2025-09-05
    status Active 421-char remark

    Show marketing remark (421 chars)

    Don't miss this opportunity to own a cozy mobile home with stunning lake views of Pine Flat Lake! This charming 2-bedroom home is the perfect canvas for your vision. While it needs some TLC, it offers endless potential as a peaceful retreat, for part time or full-time residence.Enjoy your morning coffee or evening sunsets with an unobstructed view of the lake right from your front porch. In the Cove Island Resort Park

17. 2025-08-25
    historical Pending Accepting Backups 421-char remark

    Show marketing remark (421 chars)

    Don't miss this opportunity to own a cozy mobile home with stunning lake views of Pine Flat Lake! This charming 2-bedroom home is the perfect canvas for your vision. While it needs some TLC, it offers endless potential as a peaceful retreat, for part time or full-time residence.Enjoy your morning coffee or evening sunsets with an unobstructed view of the lake right from your front porch. In the Cove Island Resort Park

18. 2025-08-06
    price $45,000 421-char remark

    Show marketing remark (421 chars)

    Don't miss this opportunity to own a cozy mobile home with stunning lake views of Pine Flat Lake! This charming 2-bedroom home is the perfect canvas for your vision. While it needs some TLC, it offers endless potential as a peaceful retreat, for part time or full-time residence.Enjoy your morning coffee or evening sunsets with an unobstructed view of the lake right from your front porch. In the Cove Island Resort Park

19. 2025-07-11
    listed $50,000 Active 421-char remark

    Show marketing remark (421 chars)

    Don't miss this opportunity to own a cozy mobile home with stunning lake views of Pine Flat Lake! This charming 2-bedroom home is the perfect canvas for your vision. While it needs some TLC, it offers endless potential as a peaceful retreat, for part time or full-time residence.Enjoy your morning coffee or evening sunsets with an unobstructed view of the lake right from your front porch. In the Cove Island Resort Park

20. 2018-12-06
    historical Cancelled
21. 2018-10-01
    price $19,000
22. 2018-08-17
    price $22,000
23. 2018-07-17
    listed $25,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 64 unhealthy d/yr today · 72 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,319
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$525
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,706
• − Management: −$1,706
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $14,229
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,415
• After-tax cash flow: $10,524/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sierra Unified
• NCES district ID: 0636805
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $67,384
• Composite: 36.91/100
• National rank: #4539
• State rank: #212 of 517 in CA

Livability — Squaw Valley

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #18982

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fresno County · 834,801 people
• City population: 3,739
• Metro: Fresno, CA
• Population (ZIP): 36,205
• Household income: $78,904
• Rent vs Own: 31.5% rent · 68.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 878.0

Population outlook (Fresno County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,042,971 people
• By 2030: 1,072,198 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 1,122,408 · +7.6%
• By 2050: 1,157,251 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 1,182,575 · +13.4%
• By 2100: 1,105,899 · +6.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 68% White 25% Two or more races 17% Asian 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 64%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 44% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fresno

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.1pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+7.8 2016: D+3.9 2012: R+2.9 2008: D+2.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -254.86%
• Current HPI: 366.3783
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Fresno, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+80.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-05 Relisted — FRESNOMLS
• 2025-08-25 Contingent — FRESNOMLS
• 2025-08-06 Price Changed $45,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2025-07-11 Listed $50,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2018-12-06 Delisted — FRESNOMLS
• 2018-10-01 Price Changed $19,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2018-08-17 Price Changed $22,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2018-07-17 Listed $25,000 FRESNOMLS