5903 154th Pl · Lubbock, TX 79424

$204,830

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · SingleFamily · 47 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The 1,100 square-foot Susana floor plan is a smart, efficient layout with open living spaces that just make sense. Brick and vinyl exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaKitchen islandGranite or quartz countertopsStainless steel appliancesPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet

Key facts

• Open living spaces
• Covered entry
• Kitchen island

Tags

• OPEN LIVING SPACES
• COVERED ENTRY
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• GRANITE OR QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 5903 154th Pl, Lubbock TX 79424; Listing provided by Zillow
• Financial info: List price $204,830

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Utilities: Has heating; Has cooling
• Home design: Spec inventory (New construction plan: Susana); Active status
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,100

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-128 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (9.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (20.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock-Cooper ISD (rural): math 54% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #98 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 707 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $162,947 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.68%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-41,744
• Equity at exit: $30,541

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-48,438
• Equity at exit: $17,710

Cash invested: $57,352 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79424

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 707
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,629 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,074
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$256 /mo · $3,072/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $-128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,792

Max offer price $186,272

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $13	-5% $-57	+0% $-128	+5% $-199	+10% $-270
Rent	-10% $-257	-5% $-193	+0% $-128	+5% $-64	+10% $0
Rate	-1.0pp $-25	-0.5pp $-76	base $-128	+0.5pp $-181	+1.0pp $-235

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,208
• Closing costs: $6,145
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $204,830 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $204,830 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $204,830 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $204,830 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $204,830 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $204,830 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $204,830 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $204,830 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $204,830 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $204,830 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $204,830 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $204,830 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $204,830 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $204,830 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $204,830 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $204,830 Active 26 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $204,830 Active 25 DOM
18. 2026-05-05
    listed $204,830 Active 354-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,554
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,474
• − Property taxes: −$3,072
• − Insurance: −$1,024
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,564
• − Management: −$1,564
• − Depreciation: −$5,959
• Taxable loss: −$5,104
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,225
• After-tax cash flow: $-314/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a good curb appeal and efficient layout. Minor updates to the exterior and flooring would significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace luxury vinyl plank flooring — Improves aesthetics and durability
• Both Install smart home features — Attracts tech-savvy buyers and renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace luxury vinyl plank flooring — Improves aesthetics and durability ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Attracts tech-savvy buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock-Cooper ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815180
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $77,347
• Composite: 47.9/100
• National rank: #2214
• State rank: #98 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 53,478
• Household income: $97,231
• Rent vs Own: 31.0% rent · 69.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1958.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 12% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 8% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -146.64%
• Current HPI: 213.2155
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.75%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B