15396 Bay Hill Dr · Northville, MI 48168

$1,090,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,117 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2002 0.30 ac lot Est $829k · 31% over $183/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Set along the picturesque 16th fairway of the prestigious Northville Hills Golf Club, this immaculate Cape Cod offers an exceptional blend of elegance, comfort & lifestyle in one of Northville's most sought-after communities. Outside, a raised brick paver patio and premium 82' x 147' lot with panoramic fairway views provide a serene backdrop for entertaining or simply enjoying the seasons. Inside, an open-concept floor plan that feels both expansive & inviting as you come through the front door. The heart of the home is the great room, with soaring cathedral ceilings, a floor-to-ceiling wall of windows, crown molding and a cozy gas fireplace all bathed in natural light. The kitchen features granite countertops, brand new gas cooktop, hardwood floors, stainless steel appliances, a pantry and abundant recessed lighting. A sunny eat-in nook with bay window and French door to the covered patio make this the perfect gathering space, and the elegant dining area provides the opportunity to host larger gatherings. The main-floor primary suite is a true retreat, offering bay window seating area, tray ceiling, spacious walk-in closet & a dual-vanity ensuite bath - all without ever climbing a stair. A fully finished 1,200-square-foot lower level (2021) is designed for every occasion: welcoming family room with granite wet bar, built-in cabinetry & wine fridge, versatile office/flex rooms, a fitness area with windows to the family room and games room complete with pool table. The 3rd full bath with granite vanity, tiled shower & ceramic tile floor completes the space along with plentiful, clean storage areas. NEW tear-off roof (2019), NEW HVAC system (2025), NEW hot water heater (2019). Community amenities - including tennis/pickleball courts, a clubhouse, fitness center & newly renovated pool (open July 2026) - are just steps away. NHGC also includes a playground, sidewalks throughout, and nature trail at Veteran's park for residents to enjoy. Come & visit this beautiful home!

Key facts

• 16th fairway views
• Sunny eat-in nook
• Great room

Tags

• 16TH FAIRWAY VIEWS
• RAISED BRICK PAVER PATIO
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• GREAT ROOM
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• SUNNY EAT-IN NOOK

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (annual fee); Annual association fee of $2,200 (includes grounds maintenance and snow removal); Community amenities: pool, clubhouse, fitness center, sidewalks, tennis courts

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with direct access; Garage faces side; 2 garage spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors; Closed-circuit cameras
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Ground-level entry with steps
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Asphalt roof; Built with a finished below-grade area
• Exterior features: Outdoor in-ground community pool; Tennis courts; Covered patio and porch; Exterior lighting; On or near golf course; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric oven; Gas cooktop; Range hood; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Stainless steel appliances; Free-standing refrigerator; Wine refrigerator; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: Total of 15 rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: High speed internet; Sound system; Smart thermostat; Finished basement with sump pump; Gas fireplace in the great room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Humidifier

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.09M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($39k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($13k rent vs $1.09M).
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 2.4% in Northville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#13 in MI, #205 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, amenities A+; Watch: commute F.
• Northville Public Schools (suburban): math 68% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #4 of 540 in MI (top 1%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $33k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $305k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 10 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $427k; list at $1.09M implies a 155% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $1,090,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.79%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $829,122
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15316 Bay Hill Dr	0.08mi	4/2.5	3,373 (+8%)	17mo	$896,500	$266	68
45653 Tournament Dr N	0.25mi	4/3.5	3,577 (+15%)	5mo	$1,227,500	$343	56
46340 Pinehurst Dr	0.74mi	4/3.5	3,384 (+9%)	22mo	$850,000	$251	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $30,547
• Equity at exit: $162,523

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $293,453
• Equity at exit: $94,243

Cash invested: $305,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48168

• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $13,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,716
• Tax from tax record: −$901 /mo · $10,817/yr
• Insurance: −$454
• HOA: −$183
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,793
• Net cashflow: $3,252

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,183

Max offer price $1,090,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $272,500
• Closing costs: $32,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16646 Brooklane Blvd Northville, MI	4.0	4.5	3282	$13,300	$4.05	17d	1	1.03mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $183 · $2,196/yr
• Likely covers: watergaspoolgym

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,090,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,090,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,090,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,090,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 691-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $1,090,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $10,817 · $901/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,801 · $1,150/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,985/yr (+$249/mo · 27.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $159,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$61,057
• − Property taxes: −$10,817
• − Insurance: −$5,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$12,768
• − Management: −$12,768
• − HOA: −$2,196
• − Depreciation: −$31,709
• Taxable income: $22,835
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,480
• After-tax cash flow: $33,548/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northville Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2625980
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $108,824
• Composite: 66.21/100
• National rank: #431
• State rank: #4 of 540 in MI

Livability — Northville

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #13
• US rank: #205

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 24,713
• Population (ZIP): 25,039

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Asian 19% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Italian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -198.06%
• Current HPI: 176.9122
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+118.0% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $1,090,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-12 Listed $1,090,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-10 Coming Soon $1,090,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2012-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $427,000 Public Records
• 2012-08-06 Sold (MLS) $427,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2012-08-06 Sold (MLS) $427,000 REALCOMP
• 2012-06-25 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2012-06-25 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2012-05-29 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2012-05-29 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2012-05-29 Listed $450,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2012-05-29 Listed $450,000 REALCOMP
• 2012-05-01 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2012-05-01 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2012-05-01 Listed $465,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2012-05-01 Listed $465,000 REALCOMP
• 2012-04-13 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2012-04-13 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2012-04-13 Listed $475,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2012-04-13 Listed $475,000 REALCOMP
• 2012-03-30 Listed $500,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2012-03-30 Listed $500,000 REALCOMP
• 2002-07-24 Sold (Public Records) $499,975 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,817 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.