450 Suffolk Dr · Ferris, TX 75125

$370,900

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,512 sqft · Land · 151 Days on market

Built 2026 5,998 sqft lot $148/sqft · 12% above area Est $332k · 12% over $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• ARV discount +2.2/15.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Willow at Sperling Farms offers the perfect blend of space, style, and functionality across two thoughtfully designed stories. The main floor features a private primary suite with a large walk-in closet and a luxurious bath, along with an open-concept living, dining, and kitchen area that's perfect for entertaining or everyday living. Upstairs, three additional bedrooms share a full bath, accompanied by a versatile loft space-ideal for a media room, play area, or optional fifth bedroom. With approximately 2,512 square feet of living space, a covered patio, and a 2-bay garage, the Willow delivers a smart layout built for modern living. Prices, plans, and terms are effective on the date of publication and subject to change without notice. Square footage/dimensions shown is only an estimate and actual square footage/dimensions will differ. Buyer should rely on his or her own evaluation of usable area. Depictions of homes or other features are artist conceptions. Hardscape, landscape, and other items shown may be decorator suggestions that are not included in the purchase price and availability may vary. No view is promised. Views may also be altered by subsequent development, construction, and landscaping growth. ©2025 Century Communities, Inc

Key facts

• Smart layout
• Versatile loft space
• Covered patio

Tags

• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• VERSATILE LOFT SPACE
• COVERED PATIO
• SMART LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath land listed at $371k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-333 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $312k (15.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (36.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (36.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#401 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Ferris ISD (rural): math 28% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #634 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($326k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $235,034 (36.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.85%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $332,130
• List price: $370,900
• Delta: 11.67%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-81,492
• Equity at exit: $55,302

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-99,044
• Equity at exit: $32,069

Cash invested: $103,852 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75125

• Home prices YoY: -6.4%
• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,350 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,945
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $924/yr
• Insurance: −$155
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $-333

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,772

Max offer price $312,110

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,725
• Closing costs: $11,127
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
485 Norfolk Dr Ferris, TX	4.0	2.0	1773	$2,275	$1.28	20d	1	0.26mi
860 Newport Dr Ferris, TX	4.0	3.0	2082	$2,395	$1.15	1d	1	0.66mi
308 Micah Ln Ferris, TX	4.0	2.5	2588	$2,325	$0.90	1d	1	0.89mi
808 Clark Dr Ferris, TX	4.0	2.5	2153	$2,379	$1.10	24d	1	0.94mi
833 Serena Dr Ferris, TX	4.0	2.0	1822	$2,500	$1.37	1d	1	0.96mi
841 Serena Dr Ferris, TX	4.0	2.5	2153	$2,395	$1.11	1d	1	0.97mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $370,900 Active 151 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $370,900 Active 150 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $370,900 Active 149 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $370,900 Active 148 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $370,900 Active 146 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $370,900 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $370,900 Active 141 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $370,900 Active 140 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $370,900 Active 137 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $370,900 Active 136 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $370,900 Active 135 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $370,900 Active 134 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $370,900 Active 133 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    price $370,900 1269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1269 chars)

    The Willow at Sperling Farms offers the perfect blend of space, style, and functionality across two thoughtfully designed stories. The main floor features a private primary suite with a large walk-in closet and a luxurious bath, along with an open-concept living, dining, and kitchen area that's perfect for entertaining or everyday living. Upstairs, three additional bedrooms share a full bath, accompanied by a versatile loft space-ideal for a media room, play area, or optional fifth bedroom. With approximately 2,512 square feet of living space, a covered patio, and a 2-bay garage, the Willow delivers a smart layout built for modern living. Prices, plans, and terms are effective on the date of publication and subject to change without notice. Square footage/dimensions shown is only an estimate and actual square footage/dimensions will differ. Buyer should rely on his or her own evaluation of usable area. Depictions of homes or other features are artist conceptions. Hardscape, landscape, and other items shown may be decorator suggestions that are not included in the purchase price and availability may vary. No view is promised. Views may also be altered by subsequent development, construction, and landscaping growth. ©2025 Century Communities, Inc

15. 2026-05-05
    status Active 1269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1269 chars)

    The Willow at Sperling Farms offers the perfect blend of space, style, and functionality across two thoughtfully designed stories. The main floor features a private primary suite with a large walk-in closet and a luxurious bath, along with an open-concept living, dining, and kitchen area that's perfect for entertaining or everyday living. Upstairs, three additional bedrooms share a full bath, accompanied by a versatile loft space-ideal for a media room, play area, or optional fifth bedroom. With approximately 2,512 square feet of living space, a covered patio, and a 2-bay garage, the Willow delivers a smart layout built for modern living. Prices, plans, and terms are effective on the date of publication and subject to change without notice. Square footage/dimensions shown is only an estimate and actual square footage/dimensions will differ. Buyer should rely on his or her own evaluation of usable area. Depictions of homes or other features are artist conceptions. Hardscape, landscape, and other items shown may be decorator suggestions that are not included in the purchase price and availability may vary. No view is promised. Views may also be altered by subsequent development, construction, and landscaping growth. ©2025 Century Communities, Inc

16. 2026-05-05
    price $371,225 1269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1269 chars)

    The Willow at Sperling Farms offers the perfect blend of space, style, and functionality across two thoughtfully designed stories. The main floor features a private primary suite with a large walk-in closet and a luxurious bath, along with an open-concept living, dining, and kitchen area that's perfect for entertaining or everyday living. Upstairs, three additional bedrooms share a full bath, accompanied by a versatile loft space-ideal for a media room, play area, or optional fifth bedroom. With approximately 2,512 square feet of living space, a covered patio, and a 2-bay garage, the Willow delivers a smart layout built for modern living. Prices, plans, and terms are effective on the date of publication and subject to change without notice. Square footage/dimensions shown is only an estimate and actual square footage/dimensions will differ. Buyer should rely on his or her own evaluation of usable area. Depictions of homes or other features are artist conceptions. Hardscape, landscape, and other items shown may be decorator suggestions that are not included in the purchase price and availability may vary. No view is promised. Views may also be altered by subsequent development, construction, and landscaping growth. ©2025 Century Communities, Inc

17. 2026-05-04
    historical 1269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1269 chars)

    The Willow at Sperling Farms offers the perfect blend of space, style, and functionality across two thoughtfully designed stories. The main floor features a private primary suite with a large walk-in closet and a luxurious bath, along with an open-concept living, dining, and kitchen area that's perfect for entertaining or everyday living. Upstairs, three additional bedrooms share a full bath, accompanied by a versatile loft space-ideal for a media room, play area, or optional fifth bedroom. With approximately 2,512 square feet of living space, a covered patio, and a 2-bay garage, the Willow delivers a smart layout built for modern living. Prices, plans, and terms are effective on the date of publication and subject to change without notice. Square footage/dimensions shown is only an estimate and actual square footage/dimensions will differ. Buyer should rely on his or her own evaluation of usable area. Depictions of homes or other features are artist conceptions. Hardscape, landscape, and other items shown may be decorator suggestions that are not included in the purchase price and availability may vary. No view is promised. Views may also be altered by subsequent development, construction, and landscaping growth. ©2025 Century Communities, Inc

18. 2026-01-18
    listed $370,900 Active 1016-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1016 chars)

    MOVE IN READY! The Willow at Sperling Farms offers the perfect blend of space, style, and functionality across two thoughtfully designed stories. The main floor features a private primary suite with a large walk-in closet and a luxurious bath, along with an open-concept living, dining, and kitchen area that's perfect for entertaining or everyday living. Upstairs, three additional bedrooms share a full bath, accompanied by a versatile loft space—ideal for a media room, play area, or optional fifth bedroom. With approximately 2,512 square feet of living space, a covered patio, and a 2-bay garage, the Willow delivers a smart layout built for modern living. Conveniently located near I-45, Ferris offers a short drive to economic, entertainment and cultural hubs across the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area—plus local attractions, such as restaurants, shops, and year-round community events. You’ll love a charming small-town atmosphere that's only 20 miles from urban amenities in downtown Dallas!

19. 2026-01-13
    listed $370,900 Active 1269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1269 chars)

    The Willow at Sperling Farms offers the perfect blend of space, style, and functionality across two thoughtfully designed stories. The main floor features a private primary suite with a large walk-in closet and a luxurious bath, along with an open-concept living, dining, and kitchen area that's perfect for entertaining or everyday living. Upstairs, three additional bedrooms share a full bath, accompanied by a versatile loft space-ideal for a media room, play area, or optional fifth bedroom. With approximately 2,512 square feet of living space, a covered patio, and a 2-bay garage, the Willow delivers a smart layout built for modern living. Prices, plans, and terms are effective on the date of publication and subject to change without notice. Square footage/dimensions shown is only an estimate and actual square footage/dimensions will differ. Buyer should rely on his or her own evaluation of usable area. Depictions of homes or other features are artist conceptions. Hardscape, landscape, and other items shown may be decorator suggestions that are not included in the purchase price and availability may vary. No view is promised. Views may also be altered by subsequent development, construction, and landscaping growth. ©2025 Century Communities, Inc

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $924 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,787 · $566/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,864/yr (+$489/mo · 634.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,204
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,776
• − Property taxes: −$924
• − Insurance: −$1,854
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,256
• − Management: −$2,256
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$10,790
• Taxable loss: −$10,809
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,594
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,399/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ferris ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819170
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $53,468
• Composite: 25.3/100
• National rank: #7486
• State rank: #634 of 826 in TX

Livability — Ferris

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #401
• US rank: #8294

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ferris, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,154

Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 57% White 32% Two or more races 25% Black 10% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 42%

Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.54%
• Current HPI: 243.4525
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $370,900 Zillow
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $371,225 Zillow
• 2026-05-05 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-05-04 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-01-18 Listed $370,900 NTREIS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $370,900 Zillow