Willow 1872 S Plan · Liberty Hill, TX 78642

$300,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,846 sqft · SingleFamily · 154 Days on market

Good condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Explore 3-5 bedroom homes at Butler Farms in Liberty Hill, TX, featuring modern layouts, scenic Texas countryside views, and top-rated ISD schools.

Key facts

• Listed 154 days

🏗️ New construction. The $300,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $382,239.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-887 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (15.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (26.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#495 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Liberty Hill ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #160 of 826 in TX (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bill Burden El (math 36% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,490 of 4,322 statewide, top 35%, 808 students, 19% FRL); Liberty Hill Middle (math 44% / reading 50%, grade D+, #424 of 1,662 statewide, top 27%, 944 students, 26% FRL); Liberty Hill H S (math 39% / reading 69%, grade C-, #422 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,001 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 23% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 1739 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 47d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $222,061 (26.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.95%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 14.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $382,239
• List price: $300,000
• Delta: -21.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
105 Boulder Ridge Trl	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,722 (-7%)	2mo	$369,449	$215	77
513 Wild Spur Ln	0.33mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,981 (+7%)	0mo	$337,990	$171	65
429 Wild Spur Ln	0.32mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,024 (+10%)	1mo	$329,990	$163	61
113 Rivendale St	0.38mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,981 (+7%)	2mo	$359,990	$182	61
213 Outlaw Dr	0.38mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,981 (+7%)	2mo	$349,990	$177	61
537 Loriner Way	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,704 (-8%)	2mo	$302,000	$177	59
148 Skycroft Cir	0.28mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,026 (+10%)	6mo	$310,000	$153	58
553 Longmount Cv	0.36mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,986 (+8%)	6mo	$315,000	$159	58
220 Outlaw Dr	0.41mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,981 (+7%)	5mo	$335,920	$170	58
221 Outlaw Dr	0.38mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,024 (+10%)	2mo	$368,990	$182	57
129 Skyview Farm Ln	0.34mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,044 (+11%)	1mo	$409,990	$201	56
601 S Loriner Way	0.50mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,042 (+11%)	7mo	$339,000	$166	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -37.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-124,925
• Equity at exit: $56,993

10-year hold

• IRR: -77.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.93×
• Total profit: $-206,564
• Equity at exit: $33,049

Cash invested: $107,027 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 46 active · 13 under contract
• Months of supply: 15.3 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $339,990 ($190/sqft)
• Median days on market: 73 d
• This list price: 7% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +9.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78642

• Home prices YoY: -32.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 1739
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,221 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,005
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$478 /mo · $5,734/yr
• Insurance: −$159
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $-887

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,344

Max offer price $253,847

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-623	-5% $-755	+0% $-887	+5% $-1,019	+10% $-1,151
Rent	-10% $-1,063	-5% $-975	+0% $-887	+5% $-800	+10% $-712
Rate	-1.0pp $-695	-0.5pp $-790	base $-887	+0.5pp $-986	+1.0pp $-1,087

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $95,560
• Closing costs: $11,467
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
336 Windstar Rd Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	2.0	2013	$2,000	$0.99	66d	1	0.28mi
213 Wild Spur Ln Liberty Hill, TX	3.0	2.0	1269	$1,850	$1.46	73d	1	0.32mi
201 Outlaw Dr Liberty Hill, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,950	$1.30	47d	1	0.37mi
201 Longmount Cv Liberty Hill, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,895	$1.31	20d	1	0.44mi
201 Longmount Cv Liberty Hill, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,995	$1.38	47d	1	0.44mi
212 Prairie Song Ln Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	2.5	2047	$2,199	$1.07	9d	1	0.56mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $300,000 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $300,000 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $300,000 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $300,000 Active 149 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $300,000 Active 148 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $300,000 Active 147 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $300,000 Active 146 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $300,000 Active 145 DOM
9. 2026-01-07
   listed $300,000 Active 147-char remark

   Show marketing remark (147 chars)

   Explore 3-5 bedroom homes at Butler Farms in Liberty Hill, TX, featuring modern layouts, scenic Texas countryside views, and top-rated ISD schools.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 94% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,647
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,411
• − Property taxes: −$5,734
• − Insurance: −$1,911
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,132
• − Management: −$2,132
• − Depreciation: −$11,120
• Taxable loss: −$17,792
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,270
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,377/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,230–$27,690 screening

This single-family home in Liberty Hill, TX, is in good condition with a modern layout and scenic views. It is ready for a cosmetic upgrade to enhance its curb appeal and interior appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Interior paint — Fresh paint can make the home more appealing ↑
• Both Lighting — Modern lighting can improve the home's ambiance and safety ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Bill Burden El F TX #1,490/4,322 Nat'l #19,191/41,679 Middle Louine Noble El D TX #926/4,322 Nat'l #13,933/41,679 High Liberty Hill H S C- TX #422/1,632 Nat'l #4,773/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827420
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $81,084
• Composite: 43.65/100
• National rank: #2965
• State rank: #160 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Liberty Hill

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #495
• US rank: #9892

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Liberty Hill, TX
• County: Williamson County · 699,027 people
• City population: 26,434
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,434
• Household income: $132,958
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3% of renters

---

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 14% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.62%
• Current HPI: 228.5772
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.89%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-07 Listed $300,000 Zillow