Plan 2429 Plan · Houston, TX 77406

$338,995

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,429 sqft · SingleFamily · 139 Days on market

↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Expansive primary suite * Granite kitchen countertops * Gas range * WaterSense® labeled faucets * 6-panel interior doors * Low-E windows * Front porch * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Den * Extra storage space * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to family friendly parks * Commuter-friendly location * Near local schools * Playground * Pavilion * Splash pad

Key facts

• Low-e windows
• Front porch
• Gas range

Tags

• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• GAS RANGE
• WATERSENSE LABELED FAUCETS
• 6-PANEL INTERIOR DOORS
• LOW-E WINDOWS
• FRONT PORCH

🏗️ New construction. The $338,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $356,139.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $339k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-233 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $322k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $282k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $282k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1222 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($298k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $282,005 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.81%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $356,139
• List price: $338,995
• Delta: -4.81%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7923 Cheyenne Hills Trl	0.13mi	3/2.0	2,400 (-1%)	10mo	$369,000	$154	82
25350 Western Sage Ln	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,371 (-2%)	10mo	$345,000	$146	77
25219 Easton Ramsey Way	0.27mi	3/2.5	2,475 (+2%)	9mo	$399,000	$161	76
25319 Farmdale Ln	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,398 (-1%)	9mo	$430,000	$179	74
25410 Western Sage Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	2,158 (-11%)	4mo	$345,500	$160	72
10403 W Hidden Lake Ln	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,477 (+2%)	3mo	$987,000	$398	64
8206 Briscoe Meadow Ln	0.34mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,707 (+11%)	11mo	$449,000	$166	49
25903 Horizon Star Ln	0.66mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,504 (+3%)	12mo	$429,494	$172	47
25939 Horizon Star Ln	0.72mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,425 (-0%)	15mo	$424,860	$175	45
25935 Horizon Star Ln	0.71mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,600 (+7%)	3mo	$419,774	$161	43
10606 Beacon Harbor Way	0.71mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,644 (+9%)	8mo	$499,000	$189	38
25219 Fisher Colony Dr	0.68mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,735 (+13%)	17mo	$402,000	$147	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-80,794
• Equity at exit: $53,102

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-121,259
• Equity at exit: $30,792

Cash invested: $99,719 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77406

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1222
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,820 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,868
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$445 /mo · $5,342/yr
• Insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$592
• Net cashflow: $-233

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,115

Max offer price $322,372

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,035
• Closing costs: $10,684
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10503 Shinning Dawn Way Richmond, TX	4.0	3.5	2523	$3,399	$1.35	43d	1	0.81mi
25810 Palmdale Estate Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	2008	$2,350	$1.17	43d	1	0.89mi
24715 Gracefield Haven Ln Richmond, TX	4.0	3.5	3337	$3,425	$1.03	22d	1	1.10mi
26407 Polaris Rise Ln Richmond, TX	4.0	3.5	3260	$3,750	$1.15	43d	1	1.20mi
11602 Darby Chase Trl Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	1910	$2,550	$1.34	43d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $338,995 Active 139 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $338,995 Active 138 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $338,995 Active 137 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $338,995 Active 136 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $338,995 Active 134 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $338,995 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $338,995 Active 129 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $338,995 Active 128 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $338,995 Active 125 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $338,995 Active 124 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $338,995 Active 123 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $338,995 Active 122 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $338,995 Active 121 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    price $336,995 412-char remark

    Show marketing remark (412 chars)

    * Expansive primary suite * Granite kitchen countertops * Gas range * WaterSense® labeled faucets * 6-panel interior doors * Low-E windows * Front porch * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Den * Extra storage space * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to family friendly parks * Commuter-friendly location * Near local schools * Playground * Pavilion * Splash pad

15. 2026-04-15
    price $333,995 412-char remark

    Show marketing remark (412 chars)

    * Expansive primary suite * Granite kitchen countertops * Gas range * WaterSense® labeled faucets * 6-panel interior doors * Low-E windows * Front porch * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Den * Extra storage space * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to family friendly parks * Commuter-friendly location * Near local schools * Playground * Pavilion * Splash pad

16. 2026-04-07
    price $348,995 412-char remark

    Show marketing remark (412 chars)

    * Expansive primary suite * Granite kitchen countertops * Gas range * WaterSense® labeled faucets * 6-panel interior doors * Low-E windows * Front porch * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Den * Extra storage space * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to family friendly parks * Commuter-friendly location * Near local schools * Playground * Pavilion * Splash pad

17. 2026-03-24
    price $358,995 412-char remark

    Show marketing remark (412 chars)

    * Expansive primary suite * Granite kitchen countertops * Gas range * WaterSense® labeled faucets * 6-panel interior doors * Low-E windows * Front porch * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Den * Extra storage space * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to family friendly parks * Commuter-friendly location * Near local schools * Playground * Pavilion * Splash pad

18. 2026-01-31
    listed $368,995 Active 412-char remark

    Show marketing remark (412 chars)

    * Expansive primary suite * Granite kitchen countertops * Gas range * WaterSense® labeled faucets * 6-panel interior doors * Low-E windows * Front porch * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Den * Extra storage space * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to family friendly parks * Commuter-friendly location * Near local schools * Playground * Pavilion * Splash pad

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,841
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,949
• − Property taxes: −$5,342
• − Insurance: −$1,781
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,707
• − Management: −$2,707
• − Depreciation: −$10,360
• Taxable loss: −$9,006
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,162
• After-tax cash flow: $-639/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,918
• Household income: $141,869
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 575.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 15% Black 14% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.18%
• Current HPI: 222.9525
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.61%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $336,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $333,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $348,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $358,995 Zillow
• 2026-01-31 Listed $368,995 Zillow