Plan 2429 Plan · Richmond, TX 77406

$328,995

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,429 sqft · SingleFamily · 190 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Expansive primary suite * Granite kitchen countertops * Gas range * WaterSense® labeled faucets * 6-panel interior doors * Low-E windows * Front porch * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Den * Extra storage space * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to family friendly parks * Commuter-friendly location * Near local schools * Playground * Pavilion * Splash pad

Key facts

• Low-e windows
• Front porch
• Gas range

Tags

• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• GAS RANGE
• WATERSENSE LABELED FAUCETS
• 6-PANEL INTERIOR DOORS
• LOW-E WINDOWS
• FRONT PORCH

🏗️ New construction. The $328,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $356,375.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $329k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-293 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $314k (4.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $275k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $275k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.8% in Richmond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#363 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Joe Hubenak El (math 57% / reading 61%, grade B-, #455 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 1,214 students, 37% FRL); Briscoe J H (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 1,914 students, 38% FRL); Foster H S (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #141 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 2,388 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1487 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 86% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 190 days — a 12% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $274,714 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 190 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.52%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $356,375
• List price: $328,995
• Delta: -7.68%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8115 Cheyenne Hills Trl	0.25mi	3/2.0	2,480 (+2%)	1mo	$359,000	$145	82
7923 Cheyenne Hills Trl	0.13mi	3/2.0	2,400 (-1%)	12mo	$369,000	$154	80
25350 Western Sage Ln	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,371 (-2%)	11mo	$345,000	$146	76
25219 Easton Ramsey Way	0.27mi	3/2.5	2,475 (+2%)	11mo	$399,000	$161	75
25319 Farmdale Ln	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,398 (-1%)	11mo	$430,000	$179	72
25410 Western Sage Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	2,158 (-11%)	5mo	$345,500	$160	71
10403 W Hidden Lake Ln	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,477 (+2%)	4mo	$987,000	$398	63
8206 Briscoe Meadow Ln	0.34mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,707 (+11%)	12mo	$449,000	$166	48
25903 Horizon Star Ln	0.66mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,504 (+3%)	14mo	$429,494	$172	46
25939 Horizon Star Ln	0.72mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,425 (-0%)	17mo	$424,860	$175	43
25935 Horizon Star Ln	0.71mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,600 (+7%)	5mo	$419,774	$161	42
10606 Beacon Harbor Way	0.71mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,644 (+9%)	10mo	$499,000	$189	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-84,392
• Equity at exit: $53,137

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-128,427
• Equity at exit: $30,813

Cash invested: $99,785 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 27 active · 18 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.1 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $375,000 ($160/sqft)
• Median days on market: 61 d
• This list price: 11% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -8.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77406

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1487
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,747 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,869
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$445 /mo · $5,346/yr
• Insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$577
• Net cashflow: $-293

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,118

Max offer price $314,037

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-46	-5% $-169	+0% $-293	+5% $-416	+10% $-539
Rent	-10% $-510	-5% $-401	+0% $-293	+5% $-184	+10% $-76
Rate	-1.0pp $-113	-0.5pp $-202	base $-293	+0.5pp $-385	+1.0pp $-479

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,094
• Closing costs: $10,691
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10503 Shinning Dawn Way Richmond, TX	4.0	3.5	2523	$3,399	$1.35	93d	1	0.81mi
25810 Palmdale Estate Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	2008	$2,350	$1.17	93d	1	0.89mi
11115 Laguna Heights Ln Richmond, TX	3.0	3.0	2635	$1,500	$0.57	31d	1	1.06mi
24715 Gracefield Haven Ln Richmond, TX	4.0	3.5	3337	$3,425	$1.03	71d	1	1.10mi
26407 Polaris Rise Ln Richmond, TX	4.0	3.5	3260	$3,750	$1.15	93d	1	1.20mi
26831 Chandrila Vista CT Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,300	$1.32	12d	1	1.20mi
11602 Darby Chase Trl Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	1910	$2,550	$1.34	93d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $328,995 Active 190 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $328,995 Active 188 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $328,995 Active 187 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $328,995 Active 186 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $328,995 Active 185 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $328,995 Active 182 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $328,995 Active 180 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $328,995 Active 179 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $328,995 Active 177 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $328,995 Active 175 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $328,995 Active 174 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $328,995 Active 173 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $328,995 Active 172 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $328,995 Active 171 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $328,995 Active 168 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $328,995 Active 167 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    days on market $328,995 Active 166 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $328,995 Active 165 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $328,995 Active 164 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $328,995 Active 163 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $328,995 Active 162 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $328,995 Active 161 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $328,995 Active 160 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $328,995 Active 158 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $328,995 Active 157 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $328,995 Active 156 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $328,995 Active 155 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    price $328,995 Active 154 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $338,995 Active 154 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $338,995 Active 153 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $338,995 Active 152 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $338,995 Active 151 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $338,995 Active 150 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $338,995 Active 149 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $338,995 Active 148 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $338,995 Active 147 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $338,995 Active 145 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $338,995 Active 143 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $338,995 Active 142 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $338,995 Active 139 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $338,995 Active 138 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $338,995 Active 137 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $338,995 Active 136 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $338,995 Active 134 DOM
45. 2026-06-10
    days on market $338,995 Active 130 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $338,995 Active 129 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $338,995 Active 128 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $338,995 Active 125 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $338,995 Active 124 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $338,995 Active 123 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,966
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,963
• − Property taxes: −$5,346
• − Insurance: −$1,782
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,637
• − Management: −$2,637
• − Depreciation: −$10,367
• Taxable loss: −$9,766
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,344
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,167/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $12,145–$36,435 screening

This single-family home is in good condition with recent updates, offering a move-in-ready experience.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Interior paint — Fresh paint can make the interior look new ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to modern appliances can increase appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 62/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Joe Hubenak El B- TX #455/4,322 Nat'l #8,048/41,679 Middle Briscoe J H B TX #166/1,662 Nat'l #1,836/14,009 High Foster H S B TX #141/1,632 Nat'l #2,354/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Richmond

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #7780

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• City population: 158,237
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,918
• Household income: $141,869
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 15% Black 14% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.18%
• Current HPI: 222.9525
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.61%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $336,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $333,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $348,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $358,995 Zillow
• 2026-01-31 Listed $368,995 Zillow