3096 Skipper Ln · St. James City, FL 33956

$425,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,442 sqft · Manufactured public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1994 Est $472k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Seller accepting offers until 5/5/21 5pm. the perfect opportunity to purchase a piece of paradise. Over 1400 sq foot. Amazing Gulf access. Large Primary bedroom with lots of closet space. Laundry room in the home. Granite Counters in the open concept Kitchen. Tile throughout.

Key facts

• Strong metal roof
• Large dock space
• Two boat lifts

Tags

• TWO BOAT LIFTS
• SEWER SYSTEM NOT SEPTIC
• LARGE DOCK SPACE
• ELEVATED HOME
• STRONG METAL ROOF
• HIGH CEILINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-30 ($-365/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $420k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $397k (6.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $397k (6.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.9% in St. James City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $250k; list at $425k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $397,472 (6.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.99%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $471,534
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3122 Binnacle Ln	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,512 (+5%)	11mo	$305,000	$202	72
2970 Sloop Ln	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,374 (-5%)	22mo	$449,900	$327	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-70,601
• Equity at exit: $63,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-63,144
• Equity at exit: $36,746

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33956

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,975 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax from tax record: −$338 /mo · $4,057/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$835
• Net cashflow: $-30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,013

Max offer price $419,631

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $210	-5% $90	+0% $-30	+5% $-151	+10% $-271
Rent	-10% $-344	-5% $-187	+0% $-30	+5% $127	+10% $284
Rate	-1.0pp $184	-0.5pp $78	base $-30	+0.5pp $-141	+1.0pp $-253

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3103 Harpoon Ln Saint James City, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$3,000	$2.74	24d	1	0.06mi
4011 Galt Island Ave Saint James City, FL	3.0	2.0	1836	$5,000	$2.72	24d	1	0.21mi
2951 York Rd Saint James City, FL	2.0	2.0	1444	$5,500	$3.81	24d	1	0.26mi
3864 Royal Palm Dr Saint James City, FL	2.0	1.0	960	$1,650	$1.72	24d	1	0.38mi
3811 Emerald Ave Saint James City, FL	3.0	2.5	1500	$5,500	$3.67	24d	1	0.80mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $425,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $425,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on marketlisting id $450,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $460,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $460,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $460,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $460,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $460,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-05-13
    price $460,000
11. 2026-05-12
    listed $475,000 Active
12. 2021-06-14
    soldstatus $249,500 Closed 276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    Seller accepting offers until 5/5/21 5pm. the perfect opportunity to purchase a piece of paradise. Over 1400 sq foot. Amazing Gulf access. Large Primary bedroom with lots of closet space. Laundry room in the home. Granite Counters in the open concept Kitchen. Tile throughout.

13. 2021-06-10
    soldstatus $249,500
14. 2021-05-07
    status Pending 276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    Seller accepting offers until 5/5/21 5pm. the perfect opportunity to purchase a piece of paradise. Over 1400 sq foot. Amazing Gulf access. Large Primary bedroom with lots of closet space. Laundry room in the home. Granite Counters in the open concept Kitchen. Tile throughout.

15. 2021-05-04
    status Active 276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    Seller accepting offers until 5/5/21 5pm. the perfect opportunity to purchase a piece of paradise. Over 1400 sq foot. Amazing Gulf access. Large Primary bedroom with lots of closet space. Laundry room in the home. Granite Counters in the open concept Kitchen. Tile throughout.

16. 2021-05-01
    status Pending 276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    Seller accepting offers until 5/5/21 5pm. the perfect opportunity to purchase a piece of paradise. Over 1400 sq foot. Amazing Gulf access. Large Primary bedroom with lots of closet space. Laundry room in the home. Granite Counters in the open concept Kitchen. Tile throughout.

17. 2021-05-01
    status Active 276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    Seller accepting offers until 5/5/21 5pm. the perfect opportunity to purchase a piece of paradise. Over 1400 sq foot. Amazing Gulf access. Large Primary bedroom with lots of closet space. Laundry room in the home. Granite Counters in the open concept Kitchen. Tile throughout.

18. 2021-03-10
    status Pending 276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    Seller accepting offers until 5/5/21 5pm. the perfect opportunity to purchase a piece of paradise. Over 1400 sq foot. Amazing Gulf access. Large Primary bedroom with lots of closet space. Laundry room in the home. Granite Counters in the open concept Kitchen. Tile throughout.

19. 2021-03-09
    price $249,000 276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    Seller accepting offers until 5/5/21 5pm. the perfect opportunity to purchase a piece of paradise. Over 1400 sq foot. Amazing Gulf access. Large Primary bedroom with lots of closet space. Laundry room in the home. Granite Counters in the open concept Kitchen. Tile throughout.

20. 2021-03-09
    status Active 276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    Seller accepting offers until 5/5/21 5pm. the perfect opportunity to purchase a piece of paradise. Over 1400 sq foot. Amazing Gulf access. Large Primary bedroom with lots of closet space. Laundry room in the home. Granite Counters in the open concept Kitchen. Tile throughout.

21. 2021-03-08
    status Pending 276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    Seller accepting offers until 5/5/21 5pm. the perfect opportunity to purchase a piece of paradise. Over 1400 sq foot. Amazing Gulf access. Large Primary bedroom with lots of closet space. Laundry room in the home. Granite Counters in the open concept Kitchen. Tile throughout.

22. 2021-03-08
    price $274,900 276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    Seller accepting offers until 5/5/21 5pm. the perfect opportunity to purchase a piece of paradise. Over 1400 sq foot. Amazing Gulf access. Large Primary bedroom with lots of closet space. Laundry room in the home. Granite Counters in the open concept Kitchen. Tile throughout.

23. 2021-03-08
    listed $279,000 Active 276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    Seller accepting offers until 5/5/21 5pm. the perfect opportunity to purchase a piece of paradise. Over 1400 sq foot. Amazing Gulf access. Large Primary bedroom with lots of closet space. Laundry room in the home. Granite Counters in the open concept Kitchen. Tile throughout.

24. 2000-12-06
    soldstatus $132,000
25. 2000-11-30
    soldstatus $132,000
26. 2000-10-13
    price $134,500
27. 1994-01-28
    soldstatus $40,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,057 · $338/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,057 · $338/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,697
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$4,057
• − Insurance: −$7,244
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,816
• − Management: −$3,816
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable loss: −$7,405
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,777
• After-tax cash flow: $1,413/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. James City

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. James City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 3,846

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Pacific Islander 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.47%
• Current HPI: 300.1416
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1035.8% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $460,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-05-12 Listed $475,000 FSBO.com
• 2021-06-14 Sold (MLS) $249,500 FORTMLS
• 2021-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $249,500 Public Records
• 2021-05-07 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2021-05-04 Relisted — FORTMLS
• 2021-05-01 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2021-05-01 Relisted — FORTMLS
• 2021-03-10 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2021-03-09 Price Changed $249,000 FORTMLS
• 2021-03-09 Relisted — FORTMLS
• 2021-03-08 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2021-03-08 Price Changed $274,900 FORTMLS
• 2021-03-08 Listed $279,000 FORTMLS
• 2000-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $132,000 Public Records
• 2000-11-30 Sold (MLS) $132,000 FORTMLS
• 2000-10-13 Price Changed $134,500 FORTMLS
• 1994-01-28 Sold (Public Records) $40,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,057 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.