4402 Clarence Ave · St. Louis, MO 63115

$50,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,700 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 166 Days on market

Built 1914 8,637 sqft lot $29/sqft · at area comps Est $49k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• Appreciation +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious Two-Story Single-Family Home With Exceptional Potential Two-story home featuring generous living space and warm wood interior details throughout. The first floor includes two large family rooms, each with a fireplace, a decorative foyer, and a large kitchen. The second floor offers four bedrooms, a full bathroom, and access to a balcony. Exterior features include open patios, an outdoor fireplace, and off-street parking. Property Condition: Home requires cosmetic and additional repairs and is not move-in ready. Occupancy inspection required. This property presents a strong opportunity for investors seeking a renovation project, flip, or addition to a rental portfolio.

Key facts

• Decorative foyer
• Outdoor fireplace
• Off street parking

Tags

• TWO STORY HOME
• LARGE FAMILY ROOMS
• DECORATIVE FOYER
• LARGE KITCHEN
• OUTDOOR FIREPLACE
• OFF STREET PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $687 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.8% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,258/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($31k/yr) (locally 1655% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 166 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $13k; list at $50k implies a 285% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1914 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $44,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 166 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1914 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.86%
• DSCR: 3.62
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $49,402
• List price: $50,000
• Delta: 1.21%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4419 Holly Ave	0.06mi	4/1.5	1,700 (0%)	7mo	$65,000	$38	90
4261 Red Bud Ave	0.20mi	4/1.0	1,734 (+2%)	2mo	$89,900	$52	86
4454 Holly Ave	0.14mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,716 (+1%)	4mo	$79,900	$47	84
4253 Holly Ave	0.10mi	4/1.0	1,468 (-14%)	7mo	$32,800	$22	67
4166 Farlin Ave	0.47mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,684 (-1%)	6mo	$15,000	$9	64
4545 Alice Ave Ave	0.53mi	4/1.5	1,681 (-1%)	10mo	$38,000	$23	63
4536 Bessie Ave	0.41mi	4/2.5	1,741 (+2%)	23mo	$209,950	$121	52
4739 Bessie Ct	0.63mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,851 (+9%)	2mo	$84,500	$46	47
4111 E Lee Ave	0.54mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,550 (-9%)	16mo	$70,000	$45	42
4228 Red Bud Ave	0.25mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,452 (-15%)	20mo	$39,900	$27	40
4526 Alice Ave	0.54mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,472 (-13%)	11mo	$85,000	$58	38
4536 Harris Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,479 (-13%)	22mo	$180,000	$122	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.54×
• Total profit: $35,630
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.24×
• Total profit: $87,325
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63115

• Home prices YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,258 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $289/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $687

Break-even live

Break-even rent $389

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $715	-5% $701	+0% $687	+5% $673	+10% $658
Rent	-10% $587	-5% $637	+0% $687	+5% $736	+10% $786
Rate	-1.0pp $712	-0.5pp $699	base $687	+0.5pp $674	+1.0pp $661

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4040 Shreve Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1201	$1,250	$1.04	45d	1	0.76mi
4202 Gano Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1650	$1,168	$0.71	25d	1	0.96mi
2046 Obear Ave Unit A St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1456	$1,070	$0.73	45d	1	1.10mi
4247 Maffitt Ave St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1700	$1,000	$0.59	5d	1	1.15mi
5338 Claxton Ave Unit 33 St. Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,550	$1.30	45d	1	1.38mi
4029 N 22nd St Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1454	$1,300	$0.89	0d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending 688-char remark

   Show marketing remark (688 chars)

   Spacious Two-Story Single-Family Home With Exceptional Potential Two-story home featuring generous living space and warm wood interior details throughout. The first floor includes two large family rooms, each with a fireplace, a decorative foyer, and a large kitchen. The second floor offers four bedrooms, a full bathroom, and access to a balcony. Exterior features include open patios, an outdoor fireplace, and off-street parking. Property Condition: Home requires cosmetic and additional repairs and is not move-in ready. Occupancy inspection required. This property presents a strong opportunity for investors seeking a renovation project, flip, or addition to a rental portfolio.

2. 2026-04-30
   price $50,000 688-char remark

   Show marketing remark (688 chars)

   Spacious Two-Story Single-Family Home With Exceptional Potential Two-story home featuring generous living space and warm wood interior details throughout. The first floor includes two large family rooms, each with a fireplace, a decorative foyer, and a large kitchen. The second floor offers four bedrooms, a full bathroom, and access to a balcony. Exterior features include open patios, an outdoor fireplace, and off-street parking. Property Condition: Home requires cosmetic and additional repairs and is not move-in ready. Occupancy inspection required. This property presents a strong opportunity for investors seeking a renovation project, flip, or addition to a rental portfolio.

3. 2026-04-14
   status Active 688-char remark

   Show marketing remark (688 chars)

   Spacious Two-Story Single-Family Home With Exceptional Potential Two-story home featuring generous living space and warm wood interior details throughout. The first floor includes two large family rooms, each with a fireplace, a decorative foyer, and a large kitchen. The second floor offers four bedrooms, a full bathroom, and access to a balcony. Exterior features include open patios, an outdoor fireplace, and off-street parking. Property Condition: Home requires cosmetic and additional repairs and is not move-in ready. Occupancy inspection required. This property presents a strong opportunity for investors seeking a renovation project, flip, or addition to a rental portfolio.

4. 2026-04-03
   historical Active Under Contract 688-char remark

   Show marketing remark (688 chars)

   Spacious Two-Story Single-Family Home With Exceptional Potential Two-story home featuring generous living space and warm wood interior details throughout. The first floor includes two large family rooms, each with a fireplace, a decorative foyer, and a large kitchen. The second floor offers four bedrooms, a full bathroom, and access to a balcony. Exterior features include open patios, an outdoor fireplace, and off-street parking. Property Condition: Home requires cosmetic and additional repairs and is not move-in ready. Occupancy inspection required. This property presents a strong opportunity for investors seeking a renovation project, flip, or addition to a rental portfolio.

5. 2025-11-17
   listed $70,000 Active 688-char remark

   Show marketing remark (688 chars)

   Spacious Two-Story Single-Family Home With Exceptional Potential Two-story home featuring generous living space and warm wood interior details throughout. The first floor includes two large family rooms, each with a fireplace, a decorative foyer, and a large kitchen. The second floor offers four bedrooms, a full bathroom, and access to a balcony. Exterior features include open patios, an outdoor fireplace, and off-street parking. Property Condition: Home requires cosmetic and additional repairs and is not move-in ready. Occupancy inspection required. This property presents a strong opportunity for investors seeking a renovation project, flip, or addition to a rental portfolio.

6. 2020-02-06
   soldstatus $13,000
7. 2020-02-04
   soldstatus Closed 590-char remark

   Show marketing remark (590 chars)

   Two story single family home is very spacious, beautiful, and grand! Amazing wood interior design is definitely the best feature of the house. The house has two large living rooms with a fireplace on the first floor, four bedrooms and a full bathroom on the second floor, very beautifully decorated foyer, large kitchen, outdoor open patios, second floor balcony, outdoor fireplace, and off-street parking. This is a very beautiful, one of the kind house on a beautiful street!The house will need some cosmetic and other repairs. Package deal is available: 10 houses for $100K. Call today!

8. 2020-01-14
   status Pending 590-char remark

   Show marketing remark (590 chars)

   Two story single family home is very spacious, beautiful, and grand! Amazing wood interior design is definitely the best feature of the house. The house has two large living rooms with a fireplace on the first floor, four bedrooms and a full bathroom on the second floor, very beautifully decorated foyer, large kitchen, outdoor open patios, second floor balcony, outdoor fireplace, and off-street parking. This is a very beautiful, one of the kind house on a beautiful street!The house will need some cosmetic and other repairs. Package deal is available: 10 houses for $100K. Call today!

9. 2019-12-06
   listed $14,000 Active 590-char remark

   Show marketing remark (590 chars)

   Two story single family home is very spacious, beautiful, and grand! Amazing wood interior design is definitely the best feature of the house. The house has two large living rooms with a fireplace on the first floor, four bedrooms and a full bathroom on the second floor, very beautifully decorated foyer, large kitchen, outdoor open patios, second floor balcony, outdoor fireplace, and off-street parking. This is a very beautiful, one of the kind house on a beautiful street!The house will need some cosmetic and other repairs. Package deal is available: 10 houses for $100K. Call today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $289 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $485 · $40/mo
• Expected delta: +$196/yr (+$16/mo · 67.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,096
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$289
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,208
• − Management: −$1,208
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $7,886
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,893
• After-tax cash flow: $6,348/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• County: Saint Louis City · 254,015 people
• City population: 283,259
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 14,488
• Household income: $30,622
• Rent vs Own: 57.7% rent · 42.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1655.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 95% White 2% Two or more races 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.42%
• Current HPI: 127.3403
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+257.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $50,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-17 Listed $70,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $13,000 Public Records
• 2020-02-04 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-14 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-06 Listed $14,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-3.0%/yr

Latest (2023): $289 · -2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.