4970 Jefferson St · Gary, IN 46408

$19,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1942 5,040 sqft lot $30/sqft · 53% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Super low property taxes!! Needs lots of work.

Key facts

• 5,040 sq ft lot
• Built 1942
• Listed 77 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $766 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $20k).
• Recommended offer: $19k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 52.5% vs local median 9.1% in Gary — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#105 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Gary Community School Corporation (urban): math 3% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #299 of 301 in IN (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $138 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $597 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($19k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $18,706 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 52.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 165.04%
• DSCR: 8.34
• GRM: 1.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $42,065
• List price: $19,900
• Delta: -52.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5177 Connecticut St	0.43mi	2/1.0	693 (+3%)	10mo	$29,900	$43	66
4646 Pennsylvania St	0.55mi	2/1.0	734 (+9%)	4mo	$30,000	$41	56
4651 Massachusetts St	0.48mi	2/1.0	609 (-9%)	15mo	$15,400	$25	49
4665 Pierce St	0.66mi	2/1.5	768 (+14%)	7mo	$103,000	$134	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.18×
• Total profit: $45,603
• Equity at exit: $2,967

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.42×
• Total profit: $102,636
• Equity at exit: $1,721

Cash invested: $5,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46408

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 1.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,148 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$104
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $336/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $766

Break-even live

Break-even rent $178

Max offer price $19,900

Occupancy floor 28%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,975
• Closing costs: $597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4327 Monroe St Unit 1st front Gary, IN	1.0	1.0	600	$1,095	$1.82	1d	1	0.83mi
4170 Fillmore St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	720	$950	$1.32	19d	1	1.14mi
3942 Lincoln St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	520	$1,150	$2.21	7d	1	1.50mi
3942 Lincoln St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	520	$1,150	$2.21	3d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $19,900 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $19,900 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $19,900 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $19,900 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $19,900 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $19,900 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $19,900 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $19,900 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $19,900 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $19,900 Active 64 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $19,900 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $19,900 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $19,900 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $19,900 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-04-01
    listed $19,900 Active 46-char remark

    Show marketing remark (46 chars)

    Super low property taxes!! Needs lots of work.

16. 1999-04-18
    historical
17. 1999-02-18
    listed $49,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $336 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $336 · $28/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,777
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,115
• − Property taxes: −$336
• − Insurance: −$100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,102
• − Management: −$1,102
• − Depreciation: −$579
• Taxable income: $9,444
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,266
• After-tax cash flow: $6,930/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gary Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1803870
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 11% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $27,739
• Composite: 4.98/100
• National rank: #10039
• State rank: #299 of 301 in IN

Livability — Gary

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #105
• US rank: #5592

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gary, IN
• County: Lake County · 422,878 people
• City population: 63,701
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 15,747
• Household income: $47,453
• Rent vs Own: 41.2% rent · 58.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 619.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 41% White 32% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.08%
• Current HPI: 155.6238
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

-60.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $19,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-04-18 Listing Removed — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-02-18 Listed $49,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-14.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $336 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.