449-451 Clay Ave · Rochester, NY 14613

$149,777

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,474 sqft · Townhouse public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1905 4,791 sqft lot Est $139k · 8% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• ARV discount +3.9/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.2/10.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the Maplewood Historic District! Add this duplex to your investment portfolio, or live in one unit and let the other pay your mortgage for you! Each unit features 2 bedrooms and 1 full bath. The right side was just updated with vinyl flooring, fresh paint and a new kitchen! Attic space is great for storage, or another potential bedroom! Back yard to enjoy gatherings and 2 car garage for additional storage. Each unit has its own private basement! Offers will be considered on Friday 6/19@ 3PM.

Key facts

• Vinyl flooring
• New kitchen
• Attic space

Tags

• MAPLEWOOD HISTORIC DISTRICT
• VINYL FLOORING
• FRESH PAINT
• NEW KITCHEN
• ATTIC SPACE
• PRIVATE BASEMENT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Operating expense details referenced in remarks
• Financial info: Owner pays water and trash collection for rentals; One unit listed with $1,000 monthly rent and is month-to-month; Two separate gas meters and two separate electric meters (separate utilities per unit)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached or detached 2-car garage (garage available); Two or more parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: Two-story building; Residential 2-unit zoning; Existing structure
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Asphalt roof; Block foundation; Built as existing (year built details: existing)
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Each unit includes oven/range and refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two 2-bedroom units (each unit has 2 bedrooms)
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: Each unit has 1 full bathroom; property total includes 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Natural woodwork
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included in at least one unit; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $360 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#222 in NY, #3,482 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Rochester City School District (urban): math 21% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #589 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $57k; list at $150k implies a 163% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $149,777

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.30%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $138,544
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
453 Clay Ave	0.01mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,574 (+4%)	16mo	$145,000	$56	70
281-283 Avis St	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,465 (-0%)	15mo	$118,000	$48	66
286-288 Clay Ave	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,270 (-8%)	1mo	$125,000	$55	65
372 Lake View Park St	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,506 (+1%)	0mo	$155,000	$62	61
518 Augustine St	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,340 (-5%)	5mo	$175,000	$75	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,367
• Equity at exit: $22,332

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $28,258
• Equity at exit: $12,950

Cash invested: $41,938 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14613

• Home prices YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,681 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$785
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,446/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $360

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,226

Max offer price $149,777

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $445	-5% $402	+0% $360	+5% $317	+10% $275
Rent	-10% $227	-5% $293	+0% $360	+5% $426	+10% $493
Rate	-1.0pp $435	-0.5pp $398	base $360	+0.5pp $321	+1.0pp $282

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,444
• Closing costs: $4,493
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
768 Flower City Park Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1995	$1,995	$1.00	11d	1	0.25mi
235 Flower City Park Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	2000	$1,360	$0.68	44d	1	0.56mi
1108 Lake Ave Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	2574	$1,600	$0.62	44d	1	0.68mi
98 Pierpont St Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1973	$1,295	$0.66	44d	1	0.72mi
327 Glenwood Ave Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	2012	$1,690	$0.84	3d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,777 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,777 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,777 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,777 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 507-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $149,777 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,446 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,989 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: +$542/yr (+$45/mo · 37.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,176
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,390
• − Property taxes: −$1,446
• − Insurance: −$749
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,614
• − Management: −$1,614
• − Depreciation: −$4,357
• Taxable income: $2,005
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$481
• After-tax cash flow: $3,837/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester City School District
• NCES district ID: 3624750
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $30,923
• Composite: 18.98/100
• National rank: #8850
• State rank: #589 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #3482

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester, NY
• City population: 432,803
• Population (ZIP): 14,740

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 45% White 22% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Asian 8% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 16% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: British 2% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, India, Philippines
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.56%
• Current HPI: 274.2485
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+150.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $149,777 UNYREIS
• 2011-06-30 Sold (MLS) $57,000 UNYREIS
• 2011-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records
• 2011-01-07 Listed $59,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,446 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.