6453 W Heritage Way · Florence, AZ 85132

$328,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,380 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 146 Days on market

Built 2006 5,692 sqft lot $238/sqft · 6% below area Est $351k · 6% under $200/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICE IMPROVMENT! STANDING out from the rest in this 55+ community.This very popular floorplan Jubilance is a true 3 bedroom. Easily can be converted into a den. Beautiful touches that make this home YOUR NEXT HOME. Sits privately on a lot with a block wall and sides fenced in. Room for sitting areas, firepit and TV watching. Inside has beautiful rock wall and a backsplash. 24 inch tile flooring. Custom paint. Home and garage have storage and cabinets..Dont forget the water system that takes care of inside and outside water .

Key facts

• Floorplan jubilance
• Sides fenced
• Firepit

Tags

• FLOORPLAN JUBILANCE
• BLOCK WALL
• SIDES FENCED
• SITTING AREAS
• FIREPIT
• HOT TUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $328k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-53 ($-632/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $319k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (15.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $277k (15.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.1% in Florence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#187 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Florence High School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 796 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 737 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($289k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $127k; list at $328k implies a 159% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $277,000 (15.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.69%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $351,182
• List price: $328,500
• Delta: -6.46%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6466 W Heritage Way	0.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,381 (+0%)	2mo	$304,000	$220	92
6375 W Heritage Way	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,495 (+8%)	5mo	$343,999	$230	74
6573 W Mockingbird Ct	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,381 (+0%)	0mo	$299,900	$217	66
2845 N Crestwood Ct	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,481 (+7%)	1mo	$270,000	$182	63
3959 N Hidden Canyon Dr	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,495 (+8%)	4mo	$285,000	$191	59
5458 W Montebello Way	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,480 (+7%)	0mo	$286,000	$193	59
6364 W Meadowlark Way	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,421 (+3%)	2mo	$310,000	$218	55
7082 W Sonoma Way	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,480 (+7%)	5mo	$308,000	$208	52
7382 W Silver Spring Way	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,475 (+7%)	3mo	$350,000	$237	50
4340 N Princeton Dr	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,495 (+8%)	6mo	$335,000	$224	50
7253 W Cinder Brook Way	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,507 (+9%)	3mo	$340,000	$226	49
7304 W Silver Spring Way	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,507 (+9%)	3mo	$317,500	$211	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-61,301
• Equity at exit: $48,980

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-76,387
• Equity at exit: $28,403

Cash invested: $91,980 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85132

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 737
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,770 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,723
• Tax from tax record: −$181 /mo · $2,177/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$200
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$582
• Net cashflow: $-53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,837

Max offer price $319,199

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $133	-5% $40	+0% $-53	+5% $-146	+10% $-239
Rent	-10% $-271	-5% $-162	+0% $-53	+5% $57	+10% $166
Rate	-1.0pp $113	-0.5pp $31	base $-53	+0.5pp $-138	+1.0pp $-224

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,125
• Closing costs: $9,855
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3658 N Princeton Ct Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1817	$3,500	$1.93	45d	1	0.10mi
2926 N Coronado Dr Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1756	$2,200	$1.25	45d	1	0.34mi
3947 N Hidden Canyon Dr Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1381	$3,000	$2.17	45d	1	0.38mi
6431 W Sandpiper Way Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1817	$3,500	$1.93	45d	1	0.55mi
6566 W Mockingbird Ct Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1381	$3,000	$2.17	45d	1	0.64mi
4518 N Petersburg Dr Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1644	$2,500	$1.52	26d	1	0.78mi
4394 N Hummingbird Dr Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1586	$3,500	$2.21	45d	1	0.90mi
7347 W Millerton Way Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1449	$1,695	$1.17	45d	1	0.93mi
2313 N Presidential Dr Unit 1545866P Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1765	$2,578	$1.46	16d	1	1.04mi
2313 N Presidential Dr Florence, AZ	4.0	2.0	1778	$2,750	$1.55	45d	1	1.04mi
7635 W Springfield Way Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,700	$1.17	45d	1	1.10mi
2901 N Daisy Dr Florence, AZ	4.0	2.5	1866	$1,749	$0.94	26d	1	1.10mi
8271 W Ebbets Ct Florence, AZ	4.0	2.0	1565	$1,895	$1.21	16d	1	1.50mi
8271 W Ebbets Ct Unit 35A Florence, AZ	4.0	2.0	1565	$1,948	$1.24	26d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $200 · $2,400/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $328,500 Active 146 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $328,500 Active 143 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $328,500 Active 142 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $328,500 Active 141 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $328,500 Active 140 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $328,500 Active 138 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $328,500 Active 137 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $328,500 Active 134 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $328,500 Active 133 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $328,500 Active 132 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $328,500 Active 129 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $328,500 Active 128 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $328,500 Active 127 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $328,500 Active 126 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $328,500 Active 125 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    price $328,500 534-char remark

    Show marketing remark (534 chars)

    PRICE IMPROVMENT! STANDING out from the rest in this 55+ community.This very popular floorplan Jubilance is a true 3 bedroom. Easily can be converted into a den. Beautiful touches that make this home YOUR NEXT HOME. Sits privately on a lot with a block wall and sides fenced in. Room for sitting areas, firepit and TV watching. Inside has beautiful rock wall and a backsplash. 24 inch tile flooring. Custom paint. Home and garage have storage and cabinets..Dont forget the water system that takes care of inside and outside water .

17. 2026-04-18
    price $329,000 534-char remark

    Show marketing remark (534 chars)

    PRICE IMPROVMENT! STANDING out from the rest in this 55+ community.This very popular floorplan Jubilance is a true 3 bedroom. Easily can be converted into a den. Beautiful touches that make this home YOUR NEXT HOME. Sits privately on a lot with a block wall and sides fenced in. Room for sitting areas, firepit and TV watching. Inside has beautiful rock wall and a backsplash. 24 inch tile flooring. Custom paint. Home and garage have storage and cabinets..Dont forget the water system that takes care of inside and outside water .

18. 2026-04-06
    price $329,900 534-char remark

    Show marketing remark (534 chars)

    PRICE IMPROVMENT! STANDING out from the rest in this 55+ community.This very popular floorplan Jubilance is a true 3 bedroom. Easily can be converted into a den. Beautiful touches that make this home YOUR NEXT HOME. Sits privately on a lot with a block wall and sides fenced in. Room for sitting areas, firepit and TV watching. Inside has beautiful rock wall and a backsplash. 24 inch tile flooring. Custom paint. Home and garage have storage and cabinets..Dont forget the water system that takes care of inside and outside water .

19. 2026-01-26
    listed $349,900 Active 534-char remark

    Show marketing remark (534 chars)

    PRICE IMPROVMENT! STANDING out from the rest in this 55+ community.This very popular floorplan Jubilance is a true 3 bedroom. Easily can be converted into a den. Beautiful touches that make this home YOUR NEXT HOME. Sits privately on a lot with a block wall and sides fenced in. Room for sitting areas, firepit and TV watching. Inside has beautiful rock wall and a backsplash. 24 inch tile flooring. Custom paint. Home and garage have storage and cabinets..Dont forget the water system that takes care of inside and outside water .

20. 2025-03-18
    price $364,000
21. 2025-03-18
    historical
22. 2025-03-07
    price $359,000
23. 2025-02-14
    listed $364,000 Active
24. 2010-06-25
    soldstatus $127,000 Closed
25. 2010-06-24
    soldstatus $127,000
26. 2010-06-11
    status Pending
27. 2010-04-08
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
28. 2009-12-21
    listed $139,000 Active
29. 2008-01-04
    historical
30. 2007-10-16
    listed $224,900
31. 2006-11-29
    historical
32. 2006-11-08
    listed $183,990

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,177 · $181/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,177 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥112°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,240
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,401
• − Property taxes: −$2,177
• − Insurance: −$1,642
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,659
• − Management: −$2,659
• − HOA: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$9,556
• Taxable loss: −$6,255
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,501
• After-tax cash flow: $869/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Florence Unified School District (4437)
• NCES district ID: 0402920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,426
• Composite: 18.31/100
• National rank: #8950
• State rank: #178 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Florence

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #19483

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Florence, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 38,671
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 38,671
• Household income: $79,000
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 102.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 9% Black 7% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.75%
• Current HPI: 233.6644
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.27%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+78.5% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $328,500 ARMLS
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $329,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $329,900 ARMLS
• 2026-01-26 Listed $349,900 ARMLS
• 2025-03-18 Price Changed $364,000 ARMLS
• 2025-03-18 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-03-07 Price Changed $359,000 ARMLS
• 2025-02-14 Listed $364,000 ARMLS
• 2010-06-25 Sold (MLS) $127,000 ARMLS
• 2010-06-24 Sold (Public Records) $127,000 Public Records
• 2010-06-11 Pending — ARMLS
• 2010-04-08 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2009-12-21 Listed $139,000 ARMLS
• 2008-01-04 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2007-10-16 Listed $224,900 ARMLS
• 2006-11-29 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2006-11-08 Listed $183,990 ARMLS

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,177 · +8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.