770 Lincoln Ave #45 · Napa, CA 94558

$179,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 920 sqft · Manufactured · 24 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 7.87 ac lot Est $182k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Newer manufactured home at end of cul-de-sac in lovely park setting is stylish and well maintained. Quiet 55+ park features common areas including clubhouse, guest parking and a community pool. A great opportunity to settle in lovely Napa neighborhood close to shopping and entertainment.

Key facts

• Guest parking
• Clubhouse
• Community pool

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• CLUBHOUSE
• GUEST PARKING
• COMMUNITY POOL
• NAPA NEIGHBORHOOD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot features include backyard, court, cul-de-sac, front yard, garden, landscaped front and back; lot is private
• Financial info: Land lease amount $811
• HOA & community: No association; Located in Napa Valley Manor (land lease community)

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned covered parking with interior access; Off-street parking and guest parking available; Total 1 parking space
• Security: Security patrol; Carbon monoxide detector and smoke detector
• Utilities: Cable connected and DSL available; Natural gas connected; gas plumbed; Individual electric meter; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home in park (single wide); Original condition; Located in a senior community
• Construction: Composition roof; Wood skirt; Manufacturer: Champion Home Builders, Inc.; Make: Creekside Manor
• Exterior features: Porch with steps; Backyard, front yard, garden and landscaped areas; Private setting with court and cul-de-sac; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in refrigerator; Free-standing gas range; Microwave; Disposal; Ice maker (plumbed); Pantry closet; Stone countertops; Breakfast area
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub/shower combination
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling; Central heating with gas
• Interior features: Built-in refrigerator, disposal, ice maker (plumbed), microwave; Free-standing gas range; Gas water heater; Carbon monoxide detector and smoke detector; Security patrol and double-strapped water heater; Unfurnished; Breakfast nook and dining bar; Pantry closet and stone countertops; Deck-attached great room
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry hookups (gas hook-up, hookups only) in laundry closet/inside area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $878 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $177k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.0% vs local median 2.0% in Napa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#227 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A+, amenities B+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Napa Valley Unified (urban): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #599 of 1,400 in CA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 538 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 427 units permitted in Napa County in 2024 (189 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($113k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Napa County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,201 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.07%
• DSCR: 2.38
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $182,160
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
770 Lincoln Ave #70	0.00mi	2/1.0	887 (-4%)	7mo	$145,000	$163	88
770 Lincoln Ave #6	0.00mi	2/1.0	854 (-7%)	5mo	$169,000	$198	84
770 Lincoln Ave #1	0.00mi	2/1.0	864 (-6%)	9mo	$200,000	$231	82

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $18,121
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $54,472
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94558

• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 538
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,012 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $680/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$632
• Net cashflow: $878

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,901

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $979	-5% $929	+0% $878	+5% $827	+10% $776
Rent	-10% $640	-5% $759	+0% $878	+5% $997	+10% $1,116
Rate	-1.0pp $968	-0.5pp $923	base $878	+0.5pp $831	+1.0pp $784

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
727 Central Ave Napa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1210	$4,260	$3.52	14d	7	0.09mi
847 Central Ave Unit A Napa, CA	2.0	1.0	660	$2,300	$3.48	44d	1	0.18mi
700 Stonehouse Dr Napa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1045	$2,876	$2.75	14d	8	0.36mi
962 Jackson St Napa, CA	3.0	1.0	1041	$3,350	$3.22	44d	1	0.40mi
2701 Soscol Ave Apt B Napa, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,200	$2.20	44d	1	0.44mi
550 River Glen Dr Napa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	790	$2,197	$2.78	14d	12	0.45mi
601 River Glen Dr Napa, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$2,018	$2.88	24d	3	0.46mi
2710 Cooper Ct Napa, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$2,995	$3.15	44d	2	0.54mi
2942 Soscol Ave Napa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	898	$3,201	$3.56	14d	18	0.64mi
3200 Soscol Ave Napa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	874	$3,816	$4.37	14d	13	0.76mi
713 Trancas St Napa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	833	$2,299	$2.76	14d	6	0.82mi
3285 Beard Rd Unit 3271 Napa, CA	1.0	1.0	616	$1,950	$3.17	14d	1	0.85mi
1509 Banks Ave Napa, CA	3.0	1.0	1100	$4,450	$4.05	44d	1	0.87mi
1678 E St Napa, CA	2.0	1.0	1037	$2,750	$2.65	24d	1	0.89mi
1802 F St Napa, CA	2.0	2.0	942	$2,450	$2.60	24d	1	0.92mi
45 1st St Napa, CA	2.0	1.0	942	$3,100	$3.29	44d	1	0.94mi
3098 Stadium Ave Napa, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$3,250	$3.25	24d	1	0.97mi
3460 Shelter Creek Dr Napa, CA	2.0	1.5	1100	$3,100	$2.82	44d	1	1.01mi
463 Coffield Ave Apt 8 Napa, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$2,099	$3.00	24d	1	1.09mi
2020 Kathleen Dr Napa, CA	1.0	1.0	817	$2,200	$2.69	14d	3	1.19mi
2614 1st St Napa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	867	$3,100	$3.57	14d	2	1.27mi
510 Coombs St Napa, CA	2.0	1.5	1000	$2,700	$2.70	24d	1	1.27mi
2638 1st St Napa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	902	$2,855	$3.17	14d	6	1.29mi
2108 Lone Oak Ave Napa, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$4,200	$3.82	44d	1	1.30mi
511 Riverside Dr Unit RIV515 Napa, CA	1.0	1.0	732	$1,875	$2.56	44d	1	1.32mi
2611 1st St Napa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	970	$3,600	$3.71	14d	6	1.34mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,900 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,900 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,900 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,900 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $179,900 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,900 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 7 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 6 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $179,900 Active 5 DOM
17. 2026-05-25
    listed $179,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $680 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,367 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$687/yr (+$57/mo · 101.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,139
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$680
• − Insurance: −$6,018
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,891
• − Management: −$2,891
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable income: $8,348
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,004
• After-tax cash flow: $8,527/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained, modern manufactured home in a desirable park setting is ready for a new owner. It features a good condition kitchen, bathrooms, and exterior, with minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both painting — fresh paint can make a home more appealing
• Both upgrading appliances — modern appliances can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both painting — fresh paint can make a home more appealing ↑
• Both upgrading appliances — modern appliances can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Napa Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0626640
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,007
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #7827
• State rank: #599 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Napa

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #7435

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Napa, CA
• County: Napa County · 120,669 people
• City population: 91,371
• Metro: Napa, CA
• Population (ZIP): 63,657
• Household income: $113,269
• Rent vs Own: 32.5% rent · 67.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2095.0

Population outlook (Napa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,987 people
• By 2030: 159,490 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 168,796 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 176,213 · +14.4%
• By 2075: 190,113 · +23.5%
• By 2100: 190,528 · +23.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 15% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Napa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.9) · D 65.9% · R 31.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.4pp toward D · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 34.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.9 2020: D+40.4 2016: D+35.2 2012: D+25.7 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -842.94%
• Current HPI: 296.0661
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.50%
• Metro: Napa, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Listed $179,900 BAREIS

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $680 · +21.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.