The Oak Haven Plan · Lakeland, FL 33805

$94,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · SingleFamily · 283 Days on market

Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Don't miss your opportunity to own this brand-new Lakeland home! Now under construction, this 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1568 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed open-concept living with a seamless kitchen-to-living room flow. The private primary suite and versatile secondary bedrooms make this home perfect for any lifestyle. Limited-time offer-get 5% off if sold before delivery! Call now, speak with our sales agent, and secure this home today before it's gone!

Key facts

• Listed 282 days

🏗️ New construction. The $94,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $276,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $95k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-236 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.2% in Lakeland — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Combee Academy of Design And Engineering (math 39% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,471 of 2,144 statewide, top 69%, 551 students, 60% FRL); Crystal Lake Middle School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #497 of 571 statewide, top 88%, 949 students, 71% FRL); Tenoroc High School (math 12% / reading 25%, grade F, #568 of 667 statewide, top 85%, 1,127 students, 63% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 272 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 283 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.4% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 283 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.66%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $276,000
• List price: $94,900
• Delta: -65.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1313 Magdalene Ct E	2.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (-0%)	2mo	$235,000	$151	57
5421 Lake Luther Rd	1.92mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,530 (-2%)	1mo	$300,000	$196	55
1830 Kooter Ln	2.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,421 (-9%)	4mo	$300,000	$211	42
2675 State Park Rd	1.89mi	4/2.0	1,768 (+13%)	3mo	$265,000	$150	41
2468 Ladoga Dr	1.74mi	4/2.0	1,997 (+27%)	0mo	$335,000	$168	40
5758 Lacar Way	2.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,382 (-12%)	2mo	$268,000	$194	38
2912 Woodcrest Ln	1.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,188 (-24%)	0mo	$262,000	$221	35
2609 Timbercreek Loop W	1.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,222 (-22%)	3mo	$290,000	$237	32
1733 Oakland Rd W	1.85mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,224 (-22%)	2mo	$149,999	$123	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-64,338
• Equity at exit: $41,152

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-93,438
• Equity at exit: $23,863

Cash invested: $77,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 0 active · 1 under contract

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33805

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 272
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,116 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,447
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$345 /mo · $4,140/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $-236

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,414

Max offer price $241,919

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-45	-5% $-140	+0% $-236	+5% $-331	+10% $-426
Rent	-10% $-403	-5% $-319	+0% $-236	+5% $-152	+10% $-68
Rate	-1.0pp $-97	-0.5pp $-165	base $-236	+0.5pp $-307	+1.0pp $-380

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,000
• Closing costs: $8,280
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3130 Tenoroc Mine Rd Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1998	$2,000	$1.00	10d	1	0.76mi
2836 Orchid Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1335	$2,270	$1.70	118d	1	1.24mi
5275 Long Lake Cir Lakeland, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1200	$1,815	$1.51	10d	16	1.46mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $94,900

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric heating and powerCentral air conditioning
• Home design: New construction planSingle-family plan named The Oak HavenAddress: Lakeland, FL 33805 (N Combee Rd area)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1568

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (full)
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan: The Oak Haven

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $94,900 Active 283 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $94,900 Active 282 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $94,900 Active 281 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $94,900 Active 280 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $94,900 Active 279 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $94,900 Active 277 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $94,900 Active 276 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $94,900 Active 275 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $94,900 Active 274 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $94,900 Active 273 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $94,900 Active 272 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $94,900 Active 271 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $94,900 Active 270 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $94,900 Active 269 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $94,900 Active 268 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $94,900 Active 267 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $94,900 Active 266 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $94,900 Active 265 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $94,900 Active 264 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $94,900 Active 263 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $94,900 Active 262 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $94,900 Active 261 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $94,900 Active 260 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $94,900 Active 259 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $94,900 Active 258 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $94,900 Active 257 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $94,900 Active 256 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $94,900 Active 255 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $94,900 Active 254 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $94,900 Active 253 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $94,900 Active 252 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $94,900 Active 251 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $94,900 Active 250 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $94,900 Active 249 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $94,900 Active 248 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $94,900 Active 247 DOM
37. 2026-10-03
    days on market $94,900 Active 246 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $94,900 Active 245 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $94,900 Active 244 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $94,900 Active 243 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $94,900 Active 242 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $94,900 Active 241 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $94,900 Active 239 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $94,900 Active 238 DOM
45. 2026-09-23
    days on market $94,900 Active 237 DOM
46. 2026-09-22
    days on market $94,900 Active 236 DOM
47. 2026-09-20
    days on market $94,900 Active 234 DOM
48. 2026-09-19
    days on market $94,900 Active 233 DOM
49. 2026-09-18
    days on market $94,900 Active 232 DOM
50. 2026-09-17
    days on market $94,900 Active 231 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,395
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,460
• − Property taxes: −$4,140
• − Insurance: −$1,380
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,032
• − Management: −$2,032
• − Depreciation: −$8,029
• Taxable loss: −$7,677
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,843
• After-tax cash flow: $-984/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab Est. rehab $78,400–$141,120 screening

This home is under construction and requires extensive repairs and updates to reach a livable condition. Significant investments in the roof, exterior, flooring, interior walls, HVAC, and landscaping are necessary to increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — No visible roof in the satellite image.
• Major exterior — No visible exterior in the satellite image.
• Major flooring — No visible flooring in the satellite image.
• Major interior walls/paint — No visible interior walls/paint in the satellite image.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No visible HVAC/mechanicals in the satellite image.
• Major landscaping/curb appeal — No visible landscaping/curb appeal in the satellite image.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale roof replacement — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Resale exterior painting — A fresh coat of paint would enhance the home's curb appeal and value. ↑
• Resale flooring installation — New flooring would improve the home's aesthetic and functionality. ↑
• Resale interior painting — Fresh paint would brighten the interior and make it more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Both HVAC system upgrade — A new HVAC system would improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained landscape would enhance the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Extensive scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 25/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Philip O'brien Elementary School F FL #1,862/2,144 Nat'l #26,279/41,679 Middle Crystal Lake Middle School F FL #497/571 Nat'l #9,793/14,009 High Tenoroc High School F FL #568/667 Nat'l #14,713/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 77/100

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 752,975 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 28,751
• Household income: $62,661
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Black 37% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 2%
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.44%
• Current HPI: 372.7317
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.77%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $94,900

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric heating and powerCentral air conditioning
• Home design: New construction planSingle-family plan named The Oak HavenAddress: Lakeland, FL 33805 (N Combee Rd area)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1568

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (full)
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan: The Oak Haven