7721 Arbordale Dr · Bayonet Point, FL 34668

$209,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,046 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1975 5,063 sqft lot Est $225k · 7% under ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NICE FIRST HOME! Recently painted inside and out. The kitchen appliances are upgraded, with upgraded granite countertops as well. There is a upgraded electric service panel. All the public spaces have the latest Luxury Vinyl flooring. The bathrooms have been upgraded. There is plenty of life left in both the roof and the HVAC system. Pasco County is even upgrading your water view! The home is conveniently located to schools, shopping, and all the things that make life a little easier. Don't get left behind! Schedule your showing soon!

Key facts

• Water view
• Upgraded bathrooms
• 5,063 sq ft lot

Tags

• UPGRADED KITCHEN APPLIANCES
• UPGRADED GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LUXURY VINYL FLOORING
• UPGRADED BATHROOMS
• WATER VIEW

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential, single family; Zoning: R4; Lot size approximately 0.12 acres (less than 1/4 acre); Unfurnished; No CDD; Direction faces: South
• HOA & community: No HOA association indicated; Pets not allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Ground level parking; Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; South facing; Completed condition
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built with approximately 1,418 total building area
• Exterior features: Front porch; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Pond view; Paved, public maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Solid surface counters
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room/dining room combo; Solid surface counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry area in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-29 ($-347/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (18.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#485 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D+, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gulf Highlands Elementary School (math 29% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,862 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 714 students, 89% FRL); Fivay High School (math 20% / reading 28%, grade F, #529 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 1,610 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 48% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 581 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($203k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,005 (18.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.59%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $224,890
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11230 Rhonda Ave	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,046 (0%)	1mo	$130,000	$124	88
10638 Oak Hill Dr	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,060 (+1%)	2mo	$205,000	$193	80
7521 Coventry Dr	0.32mi	2/1.0	1,032 (-1%)	1mo	$230,000	$223	78
10528 Cymbid Dr	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,082 (+3%)	2mo	$255,000	$236	71
11341 Winwood Pl	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,107 (+6%)	1mo	$189,000	$171	67
10433 Laburnum Dr	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,118 (+7%)	0mo	$275,000	$246	60
7835 Lotus Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,087 (+4%)	1mo	$269,900	$248	59
11014 Grant Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,142 (+9%)	1mo	$245,000	$215	56
11031 Tyler Dr	0.37mi	2/1.0	908 (-13%)	2mo	$185,000	$204	55
7322 Orange Blossom Ave	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,135 (+8%)	2mo	$245,000	$216	53
7522 Topay Ln	0.50mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,201 (+15%)	2mo	$215,000	$179	43
10609 Raffia Dr	0.64mi	2/1.0	900 (-14%)	1mo	$185,000	$206	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-38,621
• Equity at exit: $31,163

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-47,547
• Equity at exit: $18,071

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34668

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 581
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,700 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax from tax record: −$189 /mo · $2,266/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $-29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,737

Max offer price $203,888

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $89	-5% $30	+0% $-29	+5% $-88	+10% $-147
Rent	-10% $-163	-5% $-96	+0% $-29	+5% $38	+10% $105
Rate	-1.0pp $76	-0.5pp $24	base $-29	+0.5pp $-83	+1.0pp $-138

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7705 Ilex Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1349	$2,000	$1.48	25d	1	0.12mi
10905 Kingsbridge Rd Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,566	$1.33	6d	1	0.12mi
7724 Tyson Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,550	$1.29	0d	1	0.13mi
7540 Venice Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1394	$1,775	$1.27	6d	1	0.22mi
10801 Oldham Rd Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1182	$1,500	$1.27	3d	1	0.24mi
10816 Piccadilly Rd Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,550	$1.10	13d	1	0.26mi
11241 Yewtree Ave Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,950	$1.49	25d	1	0.29mi
11138 Yellowwood Ln Unit NA Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	25d	1	0.31mi
10629 Cymbid Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,700	$1.21	25d	1	0.34mi
10803 Hyssop St Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,500	$1.34	12d	1	0.35mi
7438 Coventry Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	985	$1,600	$1.62	13d	1	0.36mi
10802 Laburnum Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1002	$1,545	$1.54	25d	1	0.36mi
8024 Las Cruces Ct Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1371	$1,900	$1.39	25d	1	0.37mi
7531 Greybirch Ter Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,000	$1.43	25d	1	0.39mi
7808 Talisman Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1063	$2,100	$1.98	25d	1	0.40mi
10632 Laburnum Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1193	$1,583	$1.33	25d	1	0.41mi
7520 Hawthorn Dr Unit NA Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1303	$1,900	$1.46	25d	1	0.41mi
7520 Hawthorn Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1303	$1,800	$1.38	25d	1	0.41mi
11103 Harding Dr Unit 2 Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	760	$1,450	$1.91	21d	1	0.42mi
7530 Judith Cres Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1446	$1,695	$1.17	21d	1	0.48mi
7530 Judith Cres Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1446	$2,200	$1.52	25d	1	0.48mi
7839 Canna Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1095	$1,450	$1.32	12d	1	0.48mi
7416 Star Dust Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,650	$1.27	23d	1	0.50mi
7804 Topay Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,795	$1.60	0d	1	0.50mi
7213 Seward Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,500	$2.14	25d	1	0.54mi
7202 Palisade Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1310	$1,100	$0.84	25d	1	0.55mi
7608 Sue Ellen Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$2,400	$1.83	25d	1	0.55mi
10502 Laburnum Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1002	$1,545	$1.54	25d	1	0.56mi
7715 Sue Ellen Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,495	$1.38	4d	1	0.56mi
8161 Braddock Cir #1 Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,595	$1.59	19d	1	0.56mi
11031 Hassle Ave Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1006	$1,595	$1.59	25d	1	0.60mi
11610 Meadow Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1128	$1,570	$1.39	13d	1	0.64mi
7539 Gulf Highlands Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	936	$1,550	$1.66	6d	1	0.64mi
11611 Constance Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,540	$1.57	12d	1	0.64mi
11611 Constance Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,540	$1.57	25d	1	0.64mi
10401 Oleander Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	887	$1,250	$1.41	25d	1	0.65mi
10303 Gardenia Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1054	$1,950	$1.85	25d	1	0.70mi
11630 Paige Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,680	$1.46	13d	1	0.71mi
10225 Gardenia Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1042	$1,495	$1.43	16d	1	0.76mi
7924 Halsey Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	6d	1	0.81mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,000 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $209,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $209,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,000 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,000 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,000 Active 37 DOM
14. 2026-05-23
    status Active
15. 2026-05-21
    status Pending
16. 2026-05-06
    price $209,000
17. 2026-04-23
    listed $214,794 Active
18. 2025-02-19
    historical $1,605
19. 2025-01-02
    listed $1,605
20. 2025-01-02
    status Active
21. 2024-12-31
    historical
22. 2024-10-21
    status Active
23. 2024-10-20
    historical
24. 2024-08-23
    price $229,500
25. 2024-06-20
    listed $239,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,266 · $189/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,266 · $189/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 5% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,401
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$2,266
• − Insurance: −$1,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,632
• − Management: −$1,632
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable loss: −$3,962
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$951
• After-tax cash flow: $604/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayonet Point

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #485
• US rank: #8934

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bayonet Point, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 49,442
• Household income: $47,401
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2699.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 5% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.64%
• Current HPI: 359.7163
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.28%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-12.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $209,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Listed $214,794 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-19 Rental Removed $1,605 STELLARMLS
• 2025-01-02 Listed for Rent $1,605 STELLARMLS
• 2025-01-02 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-21 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-20 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-23 Price Changed $229,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-20 Listed $239,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,266 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.