39 Durant Rd · Wilson's Mills, NC 27527

$230,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 984 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1920 Est $247k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity in Wilson’s Mills/Clayton area! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on nearly an acre and offers tons of potential for investors or buyers looking to renovate. Features include hardwood floors and a spacious lot. Property also includes a mobile home, providing additional possibilities. Home needs repairs and is being sold as-is. Sellers offering $2000 at closing towards repairs and/or renovations.

Key facts

• Spacious lot
• Hardwood floors
• Built 1920

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• SPACIOUS LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Masonite exterior
• Exterior features: Front porch

Interior

• Bedrooms: Total of 5 rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Window unit cooling
• Interior features: Carpet, Hardwood, and Vinyl flooring; No fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $121 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (16.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.0% in Wilson's Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Johnston County Public Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #105 of 178 in NC (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wilson'S Mills Elementary (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,175 of 1,410 statewide, top 84%, 503 students, 82% FRL); Smithfield Middle (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #385 of 475 statewide, top 81%, 501 students, 99% FRL); Smithfield-Selma High (math 25% / reading 37%, grade F, #454 of 535 statewide, top 85%, 1,503 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 41% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 40% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Johnston County Public Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 409 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 2,783 units permitted in Johnston County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnston County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 74% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,239 (16.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.25%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $246,984
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
610 Lockwood Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,056 (+7%)	12mo	$265,000	$251	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-35,268
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-42,835
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27527

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 409
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,912 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,055/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $121

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,759

Max offer price $230,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $251	-5% $186	+0% $121	+5% $56	+10% $-9
Rent	-10% $-30	-5% $45	+0% $121	+5% $196	+10% $272
Rate	-1.0pp $237	-0.5pp $179	base $121	+0.5pp $61	+1.0pp $1

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $230,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $230,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $230,000 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $230,000 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $230,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $230,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $230,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $230,000 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $230,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $230,000 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $230,000 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $230,000 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $230,000 Active 42 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $230,000 Active 41 DOM
16. 2026-04-20
    listed $249,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,055 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,886 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: +$831/yr (+$69/mo · 78.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 74% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,949
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$1,055
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,836
• − Management: −$1,836
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$2,502
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$601
• After-tax cash flow: $2,051/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnston County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702370
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,912
• Composite: 34.99/100
• National rank: #5052
• State rank: #105 of 178 in NC

Livability — Wilson's Mills

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wilson's Mills, NC
• County: Johnston County · 175,441 people
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• Population (ZIP): 39,256
• Household income: $115,035
• Rent vs Own: 19.2% rent · 80.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 603.0

Population outlook (Johnston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 222,440 people
• By 2030: 240,227 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 274,616 · +23.5%
• By 2050: 304,915 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 369,507 · +66.1%
• By 2100: 406,280 · +82.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 14% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.5) · D 38.7% · R 60.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.2pp toward D · 2008: -23.7pp · 2024: -21.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.5 2020: R+24.3 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+27.8 2008: R+23.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.33%
• Current HPI: 234.8479
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.35%
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $249,900 LPRMLS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,055 · +59.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.