12 Fairwood Pl · Lake Monticello, VA 22963

$350,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 2023 0.34 ac lot $194/sqft · at area comps Est $346k · at est. $125/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Building lot at Lake Monticello. Nearly level and close to Beach 4!

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• Community pool
• Built 2023

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $1,495; Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, playground, tennis and basketball courts, sports fields, meeting room, beach rights, boat ramp, water access, trash service, road maintenance, snow removal, association management, and insurance; Association fee paid annually

Exterior

• Utilities: Cable available; Fiber optic available; Community/co-op water; Community/co-op sewer; Shared septic
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Two stories; Above-grade finished area provided by builder
• Construction: Stick built construction; Vinyl siding; Wood siding; Block foundation; Built with builder-provided finished area
• Exterior features: Deck; Front porch; Porch; Association pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Disposal; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; One main-level bedroom; Additional bedroom on the second floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Two main-level bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Eat-in kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-444 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (22.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (32.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (32.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.6% in Lake Monticello — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#284 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fluvanna County Public School District (rural): math 61% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #34 of 131 in VA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Central Elementary (715 students, 52% FRL); Fluvanna Middle (math 65% / reading 70%, grade A-, #98 of 342 statewide, top 30%, 763 students, 42% FRL); Fluvanna County High (math 60% / reading 76%, grade B, #180 of 319 statewide, top 57%, 1,488 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 23% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 200 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 138 units permitted in Fluvanna County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($340k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask is 1107% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $350k implies a 1221% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,737 (32.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.44%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $345,681
• List price: $350,000
• Delta: 1.25%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15 Smokewood Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,811 (+1%)	1mo	$359,000	$198	87
3 Hawks Pl	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,778 (-1%)	7mo	$300,000	$169	74
14 Woodlawn Dr	0.37mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,792 (-0%)	3mo	$399,000	$223	73
24 Xebec Rd	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,582 (-12%)	8mo	$299,000	$189	65
10 Briarwood Rd	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,780 (-1%)	1mo	$300,000	$169	64
64 Woodlawn Dr	0.42mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,887 (+5%)	6mo	$355,000	$188	60
426 Jefferson Dr	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,750 (-3%)	9mo	$341,700	$195	58
340 Jefferson Dr	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,960 (+9%)	2mo	$337,000	$172	55
4 Clark Ct	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,712 (-5%)	7mo	$327,000	$191	52
267 Jefferson Dr	0.57mi	3/2.5	1,942 (+8%)	8mo	$400,000	$206	52
9 Brougham Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,564 (-13%)	8mo	$359,900	$230	47
2 Barkley Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,594 (-11%)	8mo	$250,000	$157	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-85,027
• Equity at exit: $52,186

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-110,602
• Equity at exit: $30,262

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22963

• Active inventory: 200
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,347 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$192 /mo · $2,305/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $-444

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,909

Max offer price $271,581

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-246	-5% $-345	+0% $-444	+5% $-543	+10% $-642
Rent	-10% $-629	-5% $-537	+0% $-444	+5% $-351	+10% $-258
Rate	-1.0pp $-268	-0.5pp $-355	base $-444	+0.5pp $-535	+1.0pp $-627

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
367 Jefferson Dr Palmyra, VA	2.0	1.5	1434	$1,750	$1.22	44d	1	0.42mi
1 Old Mill Ct Palmyra, VA	4.0	2.0	2082	$2,200	$1.06	44d	1	0.50mi
15 Tobacco Ter Palmyra, VA	3.0	2.5	2300	$3,300	$1.43	44d	1	0.87mi
25 Glen Burnie Rd Palmyra, VA	3.0	2.5	2128	$2,850	$1.34	6d	1	0.90mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $350,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $350,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $350,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $350,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $350,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $350,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $350,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $350,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $350,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $350,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $350,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $350,000 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $365,000 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $365,000 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $365,000 Active 29 DOM
16. 2026-05-01
    status Active 1224-char remark
17. 2026-04-30
    historical 1224-char remark
18. 2026-04-28
    historical $375,000 1224-char remark
19. 2021-03-31
    soldstatus $26,500 67-char remark

    Show marketing remark (67 chars)

    Building lot at Lake Monticello. Nearly level and close to Beach 4!

20. 2020-06-05
    listed $29,000 67-char remark

    Show marketing remark (67 chars)

    Building lot at Lake Monticello. Nearly level and close to Beach 4!

21. 1975-01-01
    soldstatus $7,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,305 · $192/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,870 · $239/mo
• Expected delta: +$565/yr (+$47/mo · 24.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,168
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$2,305
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,253
• − Management: −$2,253
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$11,681
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,803
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,524/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fluvanna County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101380
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,601
• Composite: 57.6/100
• National rank: #1065
• State rank: #34 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lake Monticello

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #284
• US rank: #10173

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Monticello, VA
• County: Fluvanna County · 16,896 people
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 16,896
• Household income: $104,259
• Rent vs Own: 6.2% rent · 93.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 47.0

Population outlook (Fluvanna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,237 people
• By 2030: 27,607 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 28,075 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 28,019 · +2.9%
• By 2075: 28,058 · +3.0%
• By 2100: 26,124 · -4.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fluvanna

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.3) · D 46.4% · R 52.6% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -1.8pp · 2024: -6.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.3 2020: R+4.7 2016: R+9.4 2012: R+6.2 2008: R+1.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.94%
• Current HPI: 158.3322
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+4900.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $350,000 CAAR
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $365,000 CAAR
• 2026-05-01 Relisted — CAAR
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — CAAR
• 2026-04-28 Coming Soon $375,000 CAAR
• 2021-03-31 Sold (MLS) $26,500 CAAR
• 2020-06-05 Listed $29,000 CAAR
• 1975-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $7,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+201.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,305 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.